Dataset Information

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

ABSTRACT: Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

SUBMITTER: Reid PC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4738433 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

Reid Philip C PC Hari Renata E RE Beaugrand Grégory G Livingstone David M DM Marty Christoph C Straile Dietmar D Barichivich Jonathan J Goberville Eric E Adrian Rita R Aono Yasuyuki Y Brown Ross R Foster James J Groisman Pavel P Hélaouët Pierre P Hsu Huang-Hsiung HH Kirby Richard R Knight Jeff J Kraberg Alexandra A Li Jianping J Lo Tzu-Ting TT Myneni Ranga B RB North Ryan P RP Pounds J Alan JA Sparks Tim T Stübi René R Tian Yongjun Y Wiltshire Karen H KH Xiao Dong D Zhu Zaichun Z

Global change biology 20151123 2

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to th ...[more]

PMID: 26598217

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Project description:The frequency of plant species introductions has increased in a highly connected world, modifying species distribution patterns to include areas outside their natural ranges. These introductions provide the opportunity to gain new insight into the importance of flowering phenology as a component of adaptation to a new environment. Three Coffea species, C. arabica, C. canephora (Robusta), and C. liberica, native to intertropical Africa have been introduced to New Caledonia. On this archipelago, a secondary contact zone has been characterized where these species coexist, persist, and hybridize spontaneously. We investigated the impact of environmental changes undergone by each species following its introduction in New Caledonia on flowering phenology and overcoming reproductive barriers between sister species. We developed species distribution models and compared both environmental envelopes and climatic niches between native and introduced hybrid zones. Flowering phenology was monitored in a population in the hybrid zone along with temperature and precipitation sequences recorded at a nearby weather station. The extent and nature of hybridization events were characterized using chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite markers. The three Coffea species encountered weak environmental suitability compared to their native ranges when introduced to New Caledonia, especially C. arabica and C. canephora. The niche of the New Caledonia hybrid zone was significantly different from all three species' native niches based on identity tests (I Similarity and D Schoener's Similarity Indexes). This area appeared to exhibit intermediate conditions between the native conditions of the three species for temperature-related variables and divergent conditions for precipitation-related ones. Flowering pattern in these Coffea species was shown to have a strong genetic component that determined the time between the triggering rain and anthesis (flower opening), specific to each species. However, a precipitation regime different from those in Africa was directly involved in generating partial flowering overlap between species and thus in allowing hybridization and interspecific gene flow. Interspecific hybrids accounted for 4% of the mature individuals in the sympatric population and occurred between each pair of species with various level of introgression. Adaptation to new environmental conditions following introduction of Coffea species to New Caledonia has resulted in a secondary contact between three related species, which would not have happened in their native ranges, leading to hybridization and gene flow.

Dataset Information

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

Publications

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

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