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A Molecular Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Carcinoma: Results from CALGB 90206 (Alliance).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Prognosis associated with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) can vary widely. METHODS:This study used pretreatment nephrectomy specimens from a randomized phase III trial. Expression levels of candidate genes were determined from archival tumors using the OpenArray® platform for TaqMan® RT-qPCR. The dataset was randomly divided at 2:1 ratio into training (n = 221) and testing (n = 103) sets to develop a multigene prognostic signature. FINDINGS:Gene expressions were measured in 324 patients. In the training set, multiple models testing 424 candidate genes identified a prognostic signature containing 8 genes plus MSKCC clinical risk factors. In the testing set, the time dependent (td) AUC for a prognostic model containing the 8 genes with and without MSKCC risk factors were 0.72 and 0.69, respectively. The tdAUC for the clinical risk factors alone was 0.61. Additional primary mRCCs from patients with mRCC (n = 12) were sampled in multiple sites and standard deviations of gene expressions within a tumor were used as a measure of heterogeneity. All 8 genes in the final prognostic model met our criteria for minimal heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS:A molecular prognostic signature based on 8 genes was developed and is ready for external validation in this patient population and other related settings such as nonmetastatic RCC.

SUBMITTER: Kim HL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4740313 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Cumulative studies have shown that RNA binding proteins (RBPs) play an important role in numerous malignant tumors and are related to the occurrence and progression of tumors. However, the role of RBPs in kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC) is not fully understood. In this study, we first downloaded gene expression data and corresponding clinical information of KIRC from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC), and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, respectively. A total of 137 differentially expressed RBPs (DERBPs) were then identified between normal and tumor tissue, including 38 downregulated and 99 upregulated RBPs. Nine RBPs (EIF4A1, RPL36A, EXOSC5, RPL28, RPL13, RPS19, RPS2, EEF1A2, and OASL) were served as prognostic genes and exploited to construct a prognostic model through survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves analysis showed that the low-risk group had a better survival outcome when compared with the high-risk group. The area under the curve (AUC) value of the prognostic model was 0.713 in the TCGA data set (training data set), 0.706 in the ICGC data set, and 0.687 in the GSE29609 data set, respectively, confirming a good prognostic model. The prognostic model was also identified as an independent prognostic factor for KIRC survival by performing cox regression analysis. In addition, we also built a nomogram relying on age and the prognostic model and internal validation in the TCGA data set. The clinical benefit of the prognostic model was revealed by decision curve analysis (DCA). Gene set enrichment analysis revealed several crucial pathways (ERBB signaling pathway, pathways in cancer, MTOR signaling pathway, WNT signaling pathway, and TGF BETA signaling pathway) that may explain the underlying mechanisms of KIRC. Furthermore, potential drugs for KIRC treatment were predicted by the Connectivity Map (Cmap) database based on DERBPs, including several important drugs, such as depudecin and vorinostat, that could reverse KIRC gene expression, which may provide reference for the treatment of KIRC. In summary, we developed and validated a robust nine-RBP signature for KIRC prognosis prediction. A nomogram with risk score and age can be applied to promote the individualized prediction of overall survival in patients with KIRC. Moreover, the two drugs depudecin and vorinostat may contribute to KIRC treatment.

Project description:Renal-cell carcinoma (RCC) affects over 330,000 new patients every year, of whom 1/3 present with metastatic RCC (mRCC) at diagnosis. Most mRCC patients treated with a first-line agent relapse within 1 year and need second-line therapy. The present study aims to compare overall survival (OS) between nivolumab and cabozantinib from two recent pivotal studies comparing, respectively, each one of the two emerging treatments against everolimus in patients who relapse following first-line treatment. Comparison is traditionally carried out using the Bucher method, which assumes proportional hazard. Since OS curves intersected in one of the pivotal studies, models not assuming proportional hazards were also considered to refine the comparison. Four Bayesian parametric survival network meta-analysis models were implemented on overall survival (OS) data digitized from the Kaplan-Meier curves reported in the studies. Three models allowing hazard ratios (HR) to vary over time were assessed against a fixed-HR model. The Bucher method favored cabozantinib, with a fixed HR for OS vs. nivolumab of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: [0.77, 1.54]). However, all models with time-varying HR showed better fits than the fixed-HR model. The log-logistic model fitted the data best, exhibiting a HR for OS initially favoring cabozantinib, the trend inverting to favor nivolumab after month 5 (95% credible interval <1 from 10 months). The initial probability of cabozantinib conferring superior OS was 54%, falling to 41.5% by month 24. Numerical differences in study-adjusted OS estimates between the two treatments remained small. This study evidences that HR for OS of nivolumab vs. cabozantinib varies over time, favoring cabozantinib in the first months of treatment but nivolumab afterwards, a possible indication that patients with poor prognosis benefit more from cabozantinib in terms of survival, nivolumab benefiting patients with better prognosis. More evidence, including real-world observational data, is needed to compare effectiveness between cabozantinib and nivolumab.

Dataset Information

A Molecular Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Carcinoma: Results from CALGB 90206 (Alliance).

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