Dataset Information

Comparing the effectiveness of competing tests for reducing colorectal cancer mortality: a network meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Comparative effectiveness data pertaining to competing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests do not exist but are necessary to guide clinical decision making and policy. OBJECTIVE:To perform a comparative synthesis of clinical outcomes studies evaluating the effects of competing tests on CRC-related mortality. DESIGN:Traditional and network meta-analyses. Two reviewers identified studies evaluating the effect of guaiac-based fecal occult blood testing (gFOBT), flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS), or colonoscopy on CRC-related mortality. INTERVENTIONS:gFOBT, FS, colonoscopy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS:Traditional meta-analysis was performed to produce pooled estimates of the effect of each modality on CRC mortality. Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to indirectly compare the effectiveness of screening modalities. Multiple sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS:Traditional meta-analysis revealed that, compared with no intervention, colonoscopy reduced CRC-related mortality by 57% (relative risk [RR] 0.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.58), whereas FS reduced CRC-related mortality by 40% (RR 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.78), and gFOBT reduced CRC-related mortality by 18% (RR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.88). NMA demonstrated nonsignificant trends favoring colonoscopy over FS (RR 0.71; 95% CI, 0.45-1.11) and FS over gFOBT (RR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.51-1.09) for reducing CRC-related deaths. NMA-based simulations, however, revealed that colonoscopy has a 94% probability of being the most effective test for reducing CRC mortality and a 99% probability of being most effective when the analysis is restricted to screening studies. LIMITATIONS:Randomized trials and observational studies were combined within the same analysis. CONCLUSION:Clinical outcomes studies demonstrate that gFOBT, FS, and colonoscopy are all effective in reducing CRC-related mortality. Network meta-analysis suggests that colonoscopy is the most effective test.

SUBMITTER: Elmunzer BJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4766592 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparing the effectiveness of competing tests for reducing colorectal cancer mortality: a network meta-analysis.

Elmunzer B Joseph BJ Singal Amit G AG Sussman Jeremy B JB Deshpande Amar R AR Sussman Daniel A DA Conte Marisa L ML Dwamena Ben A BA Rogers Mary A M MA Schoenfeld Philip S PS Inadomi John M JM Saini Sameer D SD Waljee Akbar K AK

Gastrointestinal endoscopy 20150301 3

<h4>Background</h4>Comparative effectiveness data pertaining to competing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests do not exist but are necessary to guide clinical decision making and policy.<h4>Objective</h4>To perform a comparative synthesis of clinical outcomes studies evaluating the effects of competing tests on CRC-related mortality.<h4>Design</h4>Traditional and network meta-analyses. Two reviewers identified studies evaluating the effect of guaiac-based fecal occult blood testing (gFOBT), ...[more]

PMID: 25708757

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Project description:BACKGROUND & AIMS:Biomarker assays could increase the accuracy of noninvasive detection of colorectal cancer (CRC); fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) are estimated to miss 27%-47% of CRCs and 70%-80% of advanced adenomas per round of screening. We investigated the conditions under which biomarker screens would be cost-effective compared with FIT screens of average-risk individuals. METHODS:We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate the effects of various CRC screening test characteristics on life-years gained (LYG) and; age-specific all-cause mortality was based on the 2010 Dutch life tables. Simulated CRC incidence rate and CRC stage distribution were calibrated to observed data in The Netherlands from 1999 through 2003 (before opportunities for screening). Survival rates after diagnosis of CRC at an age younger than 75 years were based on CRC relative survival data from 1985 through 2004; survival for individuals diagnosed at an age of 75 years or older was adjusted to fit the observed age-increasing mortality/incidence ratio. We modeled FIT along with hypothetical biomarker tests with different test performance levels. For each biomarker test we calculated the maximum unit cost for the test to be cost-effective compared with FIT, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000 ($56,000) per LYG. RESULTS:Biennial FIT screening of subjects 55-75 years old provided 84.9 LYG at a cost of €122,000 ($137,000) per 1000 participants. Considering a unit cost of €7 ($8) for FIT (including kit and analysis only, excluding organizational costs), a biomarker test that detects CRC with higher levels of specificity and sensitivity (100%) and advanced adenomas at a proportionally higher level of sensitivity (53%) should never exceed a cost of €51 ($57). The threshold cost could increase to more than €200 ($224) for high-performing biomarker tests in cases of limited colonoscopy capacity or higher uptake of this test. CONCLUSIONS:By using the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate effects of CRC screening tests, we found that for a biomarker test with increased overall performance to be cost-effective, it should not exceed 7-fold the unit cost of FIT. This maximum would increase substantially if colonoscopy becomes more expensive or scarce, or if the new test has higher screening uptake. These values could be used to estimate the added value of new biomarkers compared with current FIT screening.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Different strategies toward implementing competing risks in discrete-event simulation (DES) models are available. This study aims to provide recommendations regarding modeling approaches that can be defined based on these strategies by performing a quantitative comparison of alternative modeling approaches. METHODS:Four modeling approaches were defined: 1) event-specific distribution (ESD), 2) event-specific probability and distribution (ESPD), 3) unimodal joint distribution and regression model (UDR), and 4) multimodal joint distribution and regression model (MDR). Each modeling approach was applied to uncensored individual patient data in a simulation study and a case study in colorectal cancer. Their performance was assessed in terms of relative event incidence difference, relative absolute event incidence difference, and relative entropy of time-to-event distributions. Differences in health economic outcomes were also illustrated for the case study. RESULTS:In the simulation study, the ESPD and MDR approaches outperformed the ESD and UDR approaches, in terms of both event incidence differences and relative entropy. Disease pathway and data characteristics, such as the number of competing risks and overlap between competing time-to-event distributions, substantially affected the approaches' performance. Although no considerable differences in health economic outcomes were observed, the case study showed that the ESPD approach was most sensitive to low event rates, which negatively affected performance. CONCLUSIONS:Based on overall performance, the recommended modeling approach for implementing competing risks in DES models is the MDR approach, which is defined according to the general strategy of selecting the time-to-event first and the corresponding event second. The ESPD approach is a less complex and equally performing alternative if sufficient observations are available for each competing event (i.e., the internal validity shows appropriate data representation).

Project description:Background: Genetic characteristics remain underutilized for establishing prognostic models for colorectal cancer (CRC). We explored the underlying regulatory mechanisms of circular RNAs (circRNAs) that act as competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs) and constructed a gene-based nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with CRC. Methods: We obtained circRNA expression profiling data from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. MicroRNA (miRNA) and mRNA expression profiles, with associated clinical data, were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). A ceRNA network was established using Cytoscape. Interactions between differential genes were analyzed, and hub genes were identified using the cytoHubba application. The R package "clusterProfiler" was used to evaluate the Gene Ontology (GO) annotations of the differentially expressed mRNAs and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways. Database-extracted patients were randomized into a training and validation cohorts. A prognostic model was developed using the training set based on multivariate Cox analyses and was then assessed in the validation set. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using discrimination and calibration plots. Results: Thirteen circRNAs, 62 miRNAs, and 301 mRNAs were used to construct the ceRNA network; 10 hub genes were identified via the PPI network. Next, a circRNA- miRNA hub of gene-regulatory modules was established based on four differentially expressed circRNAs, eight differentially expressed miRNAs, and nine differentially expressed mRNAs (DEmRNAs). GO and KEGG pathway analyses indicated the possible association of DEmRNAs with CRC onset and progression. Multivariate analyses revealed that age, tumor stage, and CXCR5 expression were independent risk factors for OS. A CXCR5-based model was developed to predict the OS of patients with CRC in our training set. Our nomogram showed relatively good accuracy, with C-indices of 0.757 and 0.702 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The areas under the curve of the nomograms predicting 3- and 5-years OS were 0.749 and 0.805 in the training set and 0.706 and 0.779 in the validation set, respectively. Conclusions: Our data suggested that the hsa_circ_00001666/has-mir-1229/CXCR5 axis plays an important role in the pathogenesis of CRC, thereby identifying a potential therapeutic target. The proposed CXCR5-based nomogram may also assist surgeons in devising personalized treatments for patients with this disease.

Project description:PurposeThis study was aimed to develop a lncRNA-associated competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network to provide further understanding of the ceRNA regulatory mechanism and pathogenesis in colorectal cancer (CRC).Patients and methodsExpression profiles of mRNAs, lncRNAs, and miRNAs, and clinical information for CRC patients were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas. The differentially expressed mRNAs, lncRNAs, and miRNAs (referred to as "DEmRNAs", "DElncRNAs", and "DEmiRNAs", respectively) were screened out between 539 CRC samples and 11 normal samples. The interactions between DElncRNAs and DEmiRNAs were predicted by miRcode. The DEmRNAs targeted by the DEmiRNAs were retrieved according to TargetScan, miRTar-Base, and miRDB. The lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA network was constructed based on the DEmiRNA-DElncRNA and DEmiRNA-DEmRNA interactions. Functional enrichment analysis revealed the biological processes and pathways of DEmRNAs involved in the development of CRC. Key lncRNAs were further analyzed for their associations with overall survival and clinical features of CRC patients.ResultsA total of 1,767 DEmRNAs, 608 DElncRNAs, and 283 DEmiRNAs were identified as CRC-specific RNAs. Three hundred eighty-two DEmiRNA-DElncRNA interactions and 68 DEmiRNA-DEmRNA interactions were recognized according to the relevant databases. The lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA network was constructed using 25 DEmiRNAs, 52 DEmRNAs, and 64 DElncRNAs. Two DElncRNAs, five DEmiRNAs, and six DEmRNAs were demonstrated to be related to the prognosis of CRC patients. Four DElncRNAs were found to be associated with clinical features. Twenty-eight Gene Ontology terms and 10 Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways were found to be significantly enriched by the DEmRNAs in the ceRNA network.ConclusionOur results showed cancer-specific mRNA, lncRNA, and miRNA expression patterns and enabled us to construct an lncRNA-associated ceRNA network that provided new insights into the molecular mechanisms of CRC. Key RNA transcripts related to the overall survival and clinical features were also found with promising potential as biomarkers for diagnosis, survival prediction, and classification of CRC.

Dataset Information

Comparing the effectiveness of competing tests for reducing colorectal cancer mortality: a network meta-analysis.

Publications

Comparing the effectiveness of competing tests for reducing colorectal cancer mortality: a network meta-analysis.

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