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Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Limited attention has been paid to negative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers despite their potential to improve medical decision making. We compared 13 negative risk markers using diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs), which model the change in risk for an individual after the result of an additional test. METHODS AND RESULTS:We examined 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Coronary artery calcium score of 0, carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile, absence of carotid plaque, brachial flow-mediated dilation >5% change, ankle-brachial index >0.9 and <1.3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L, homocysteine <10 µmol/L, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide <100 pg/mL, no microalbuminuria, no family history of coronary heart disease (any/premature), absence of metabolic syndrome, and healthy lifestyle were compared for all and hard coronary heart disease and all CVD events over the 10-year follow-up. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Among all negative risk markers, coronary artery calcium score of 0 was the strongest, with an adjusted mean DLR of 0.41 (SD, 0.12) for all coronary heart disease and 0.54 (SD, 0.12) for CVD, followed by carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile (DLR, 0.65 [SD, 0.04] and 0.75 [SD, 0.04], respectively). High-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L and normal ankle-brachial index had DLRs >0.80. Among clinical features, absence of any family history of coronary heart disease was the strongest (DLRs, 0.76 [SD, 0.07] and 0.81 [SD, 0.06], respectively). Net reclassification improvement analyses yielded similar findings, with coronary artery calcium score of 0 resulting in the largest, most accurate downward risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS:Negative results of atherosclerosis-imaging tests, particularly coronary artery calcium score of 0, resulted in the greatest downward shift in estimated CVD risk. These results may help guide discussions on the identification of individuals less likely to receive net benefit from lifelong preventive pharmacotherapy.

SUBMITTER: Blaha MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4775391 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Blaha Michael J MJ Cainzos-Achirica Miguel M Greenland Philip P McEvoy John W JW Blankstein Ron R Budoff Matthew J MJ Dardari Zeina Z Sibley Christopher T CT Burke Gregory L GL Kronmal Richard A RA Szklo Moyses M Blumenthal Roger S RS Nasir Khurram K

Circulation 20160122 9

<h4>Background</h4>Limited attention has been paid to negative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers despite their potential to improve medical decision making. We compared 13 negative risk markers using diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs), which model the change in risk for an individual after the result of an additional test.<h4>Methods and results</h4>We examined 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Coronary artery calcium score of 0, carotid intima-media thic ...[more]

PMID: 26801055

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:The MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a population-based study of 6,814 men and women. We sought to analyze the relationship between the extent of coronary artery calcium (CAC) at baseline and the severity of coronary stenoses in clinically indicated coronary angiography studies during follow-up. BACKGROUND:CAC is an established predictor of major cardiovascular events. Yet, the relationship between CAC and the distribution and severity of coronary artery stenoses has not been widely explored. METHODS:All MESA participants underwent noncontrast enhanced cardiac computed tomography during enrollment to determine baseline CAC. We analyzed 175 consecutive angiography reports from participants who underwent coronary catheterization for clinical indications during a median follow-up period of 18 months. The relationship between baseline CAC and the severity of coronary stenosis detected in coronary angiographies was determined. RESULTS:Baseline Agatston score was 0 in only 7 of 175 (4%) MESA participants who underwent invasive angiography during follow-up. When coronary arteries were studied separately, 13% to 18% of coronary arteries with >or=75% stenosis had 0 calcium mass scores at baseline. There was close association between baseline calcium mass score and the severity of stenosis in each of the coronary arteries (test for trend, p < 0.001). For example, mean calcium mass scores for <50%, 50% to 74%, and >or=75% stenosis in the left anterior descending coronary artery were 105.1 mg, 157.2 mg, and 302.2 mg, respectively (p < 0.001). Finally, there was a direct relationship between the total Agatston Score at baseline and the number of diseased vessels (test for trend, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The majority of patients with clinically indicated coronary angiography during follow-up had detectable coronary calcification at baseline. Although there is a significant relationship between the extent of calcification and mean degree of stenosis in individual coronary vessels, 16% of the coronary arteries with significant stenoses had no calcification at baseline.

Project description:AimsWhile coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category.Methods and resultsWe utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use.ConclusionsCoronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

Project description:Highlights • Women with early menopause are at greater risk for heart disease over the long-term.• Over half of middle-aged women with early menopause were free of CAC, similar to women without early menopause.• Coronary calcium scores were similar between women with and without early menopause.• Women without calcium had low risk for heart disease regardless of menopause history. Background and Aims We aimed to determine the utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification in women with and without early menopause (EM). Methods To examine the association between CAC and incident ASCVD, we performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling using data from 2,456 postmenopausal women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with or without EM, defined as occurring at <45 years of age. Results The cohort was 64.1 ± 9.1 years old and 28.0% experienced EM. There were 291 ASCVD events over 12.5 ± 3.6 year follow-up with a higher event rate among those with EM compared to those without EM of 13.6 vs. 9.0 per 1,000 year follow-up (p < 0.01). Women with EM had a slightly lower prevalence of CAC = 0 (55.1%) than women without EM (59.7%) (p = 0.04) despite no difference in mean age. Among women with CAC = 0, the cumulative incidence of ASCVD at 10 years was low-to-borderline for women with (5.4%) and without EM (3.2%) (p = 0.06). However, women with EM had a significantly higher 15-year risk with an adjusted HR of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.26–3.04). In multivariable Cox models, women with CAC ≥ 1 had progressively increased ASCVD risk that did not significantly differ by EM status. Conclusion In MESA, >50% of middle-aged postmenopausal women with EM had CAC = 0, similar to those without EM. Among women with CAC = 0, those with EM had a low to borderline 10-year risk of ASCVD, but the 15-year risk was significantly higher for women with EM versus those without EM. When CAC ≥ 1, the incidence of ASCVD was similar for women with and without EM. These findings support the use of CAC to help improve ASCVD risk stratification in women with EM. Condensed abstract This study investigated the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in postmenopausal women with and without early menopause (EM). We found that >50% of women had CAC = 0 and an associated low-to-borderline 10-year cumulative incidence of ASCVD. However, the risk for ASCVD was significantly higher for women with EM after 15-years follow-up. Additional research is needed to better understand the differences in long-term ASCVD risk between women with and without EM who have CAC = 0. Graphical abstract Image, graphical abstract

Project description:ImportanceThe interplay of self-rated health (SRH), coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and cardiovascular risk is poorly described.ObjectivesTo assess the degree of correlation between SRH and CAC, to determine whether these measures are complementary for risk prediction, and to assess the incremental value of the addition of SRH to established risk tools.Design, setting, and participantsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a large population-based prospective cohort study of adults aged 45 to 84 years who were recruited from 6 US communities. A total of 6764 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) were included in the analysis. Data were collected from July 2000 through August 2002. Follow-up was completed by December 2013, and data were analyzed from October 2018 to December 2018.ExposuresThe EVGGFP (excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor) self-assessment of overall health (assessed before the baseline study examination) and CAC score. The EVGGFP rating was categorized as poor/fair, good, very good, or excellent.Main outcomes and measuresHard coronary heart disease (CHD) events, hard CVD events, and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 13.2 years (interquartile range, 12.7-13.7 years).ResultsAmong the study population of 6764 participants, the mean (SD) age was 62.1 (10.2) years, and 52.9% were women. The EVGGFP rating was strongly associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational and income levels, healthy diet and physical activity, and cardiovascular risk factors. Despite encapsulating many risk variables, no correlation (r = -0.007; P = .57) or association between EVGGFP and the presence (χ2 = 0.84; P = .84) or severity (χ2 = 4.64; P = .86) of CAC was found. During follow-up, 1161 deaths, 637 hard CVD events, and 405 hard CHD events were recorded. In models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and CAC, participants who reported excellent health had a 45% lower risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) and a 42% lower risk of CHD (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.90) compared with those who reported poor/fair health. Participants in the excellent SRH category who had any CAC had markedly elevated risk of hard CHD (HR, 6.19; 95% CI, 2.1-18.3) and CVD (HR, 6.50; 95% CI, 2.7-15.6) events compared with those with a CAC score of 0. The addition of the EVGGFP rating to CAC improved the area under the curve (C statistic) for CHD events (0.725 vs 0.734; P = .007), CVD events (0.693 vs 0.706; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (0.685 vs 0.707; P < .001). However, the addition of the EVGGFP rating to the combination of CAC and atherosclerotic CVD risk score did not significantly improve C statistics for CHD events (0.751 vs 0.753; P = .39), CVD events (0.739 vs 0.741; P = .18), or all-cause mortality (0.779 vs 0.781; P = .13).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough SRH and CAC integrate many risk variables, this study suggests that they are poorly correlated and have complementary predictive utility. A perception of excellent health does not obviate the need for definitive assessment of CVD risk, whereas fair/poor perceived health may serve as a risk enhancer, arguing for advanced risk assessment in selected clinical scenarios.

Dataset Information

Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Publications

Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

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