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Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

ABSTRACT: Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

SUBMITTER: Peng Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4779019 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

Peng Ying Y Qi Xingshun X Guo Xiaozhong X

Medicine 20160201 8

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihoo ...[more]

PMID: 26937922

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Project description:BackgroundThe recommended starting dose of eribulin in patients with hepatic impairment is based on the Child-Pugh score, largely informed by a pharmacokinetic study of 18 patients. In the pivotal studies of eribulin in metastatic breast cancer (Study 301 and Study 305 [EMBRACE]), entry criteria and dose modifications were based on liver-function test (LFT) results rather than Child-Pugh score. In populations such as patients with metastatic breast cancer, in which metastatic infiltration is the predominant cause of hepatic impairment, using Child-Pugh score may be problematic; in clinical practice, it has been more common for oncologists to make dosing decisions based on LFTs. To address this, the effects of abnormal baseline LFT results on eribulin efficacy and safety were investigated.MethodsIn this pooled post hoc analysis, 1062 patients who were randomized to receive eribulin in Studies 301 and 305 were divided into 4 groups: (A) no elevated LFT results (no liver impairment); (B) increased levels of aspartate aminotransferase and/or alanine aminotransferase; (C) decreased albumin and/or increased levels of aspartate aminotransferase and/or alanine aminotransferase but not increased bilirubin; and (D) increased bilirubin. Patients were subcategorized by presence of liver metastasis. Drug exposure, dose intensity, and treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were analyzed.ResultsEribulin mesylate mean dosage was 0.82 (group A)-0.65 mg/m2/week (group D). Group D had shorter treatment, more dose reductions/delays, more TEAEs leading to dose modifications, and numerically lower objective response rates and clinical benefit rates versus groups A-C. TEAE rates leading to dose modification were similar between group D (45.5%) and groups A-C (range, 43.5-54.9%) in the absence of liver metastases, but higher in group D (91.3%) compared with groups A-C (range, 41.7-54.3%) if liver metastases were present.ConclusionsMild elevations in bilirubin levels were associated with increased toxicity and a greater requirement for dose modifications. Based both on these study data and existing recommendations, we propose a novel scheme to guide initial dose selection in patients with metastatic breast cancer and hepatic impairment that is based on LFTs rather than Child-Pugh score.

Project description:Background and aimsAccurate assessment of the risk of mortality following a cirrhosis-related admission can enable health-care providers to identify high-risk patients and modify treatment plans to decrease the risk of mortality.MethodsWe developed a post-discharge mortality prediction model for patients with a cirrhosis-related admission using a population of 314,292 patients who received care either at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) between 1992 and 2010. We extracted 68 variables from the electronic medical records (EMRs), including demographics, laboratory values, diagnosis codes, and medications. We then used a regularized logistic regression to select the most informative variables and created a risk score that comprises the selected variables. To evaluate the potential for generalizability of our score, we applied it on all cirrhosis-related admissions between 2010 and 2015 at an independent EMR data source of more than 18 million patients, pooled from different health-care systems with EMRs. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to assess prediction performance.ResultsWe identified 4,781 cirrhosis-related admissions at MGH/BWH hospitals, of which 778 resulted in death within 90 days of discharge. Nine variables were the most effective predictors for 90-day mortality, and these included all MELD-Na's components, as well as albumin, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, age, and length of stay. Applying our nine-variable risk score (denoted as "MELD-Plus") resulted in an improvement over MELD and MELD-Na scores in several prediction models. On the MGH/BWH 90-day model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 11.4% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.75-0.81] versus 0.70 [95% CI, 0.66-0.73]). In the MGH/BWH approximate 1-year model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 8.3% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.79] versus 0.72 [95% CI, 0.71-0.73]). Performance improvement was similar when the novel MELD-Plus risk score was applied to an independent database; when considering 24,042 cirrhosis-related admissions, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 16.9% (0.69 [95% CI, 0.69-0.70] versus 0.59 [95% CI, 0.58-0.60]).ConclusionsWe developed a new risk score, MELD-Plus that accurately stratifies the short-term mortality of patients with established cirrhosis, following a hospital admission. Our findings demonstrate that using a small set of easily accessible structured variables can help identify novel predictors of outcomes in cirrhosis patients and improve the performance of widely used traditional risk scores.

Project description:BackgroundsThe Child-Pugh score is a scoring system used to measure liver function and predict postoperative outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, the Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade has been proposed for the evaluation of hepatic reserve function in HCC. This study aimed to assess and compare the capability of ALBI grade and Child-Pugh score in predicting overall survival (OS).MethodsA total of 196 consecutive HCC patients who treated with hepatectomy were enrolled in this retrospective study. The prognostic values of ALBI grade and Child-Pugh score in predicting postoperative OS were respectively estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and time-dependent receiver operating curves (ROC). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to investigate the prognostic factors for OS.ResultsStratified by the Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) system, there were 81 (41.3%) patients with grade 1 and 115 (58.7%) patients with grade 2. The cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-year OS rates in patients with ALBI-1 were 82.7%, 51.5% and 35.5%, respectively. For patients with ALBI-2, the cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-year OS rates were 57.6%, 19.4% and 0%, respectively. Based on the Child-Pugh classification, 136 (69.4%) patients had a score of 5, and 60 (30.6%) patients had a score of 6. Patients with Child-Pugh-A5 showed a better OS than those with Child-Pugh-A6, with respective OS at 1, 3 and 5 years (72.7%, 29.2%, 20.3% vs. 53.9%, 21.1%, 0%, Log-rank P<0.001). Besides, the ALBI grade revealed two prognostic groups within Child-Pugh-A5 (P<0.001), while the Child-Pugh score did not distinguish ALBI-2 in different prognostic groups (P=0.705). The multivariate analysis indicated that both ALBI grade and Child-Pugh score could significantly stratify the patients with different OS [hazard ratio (HR), 3.088 and 1.783; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.985 to 4.805 and 1.272 to 2.731; P<0.001 and P=0.032 for ALBI grade and Child-Pugh score, respectively]. Additionally, time-dependent ROC analysis in the entire cohort proved that the ALBI grade had a better discriminatory ability than the Child-Pugh score in predicting survival, especially for long-term outcomes. According to the subgroup analyses, the ALBI grade had a better discriminatory ability and survival prediction accuracy in overall subsets than the Child-Pugh score for the prediction of OS.ConclusionsALBI grade supplied better prognostic performance and distribution of liver function than Child-Pugh score in stratifying prognosis for HCC patients treated by hepatectomy. These results declared that ALBI grade could be an alternative liver function grading system for stratification in patients with HCC.

Project description:Background & aimsAmong individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB), the Baveno VII workshop recommended pre-emptive TIPS in those with a Child-Pugh score of 8-9 and active bleeding at initial endoscopy (Child B8-9 + AB criteria). Nevertheless, whether this criterion is superior to the CLIF-Consortium acute decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) remains unclear.MethodsData on 1,021 consecutive individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB from 13 university hospitals in China who were treated with pre-emptive TIPS (n = 297) or drug plus endoscopic treatment (n = 724) between 2010 to 2019 were retrospectively analysed. A competing risk regression model was used to compare the outcomes between the two groups after adjusting for confounders. The concordance-statistic for benefit (c-for-benefit) was used to evaluate a models' ability to predict treatment benefit (risk difference between treatment groups).ResultsPre-emptive TIPS was associated with reduced mortality compared to drug plus endoscopic treatment (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.88). A higher baseline CLIF-C AD score was associated with greater survival benefit (i.e., larger absolute mortality risk reduction). After adjusting for confounders, a survival benefit was observed in individuals with CLIF-C ADs ≥48 or Child-Pugh B8-9 with active bleeding, but not in those with CILF-C ADs <48, no active bleeding or Child-Pugh B7 with active bleeding. The c-for-benefit of CILF-C ADs for predicting survival benefit was higher than that of Child B8-9+AB criteria.ConclusionsIn individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, CLIF-C ADs predicts survival benefit from pre-emptive TIPS and outperforms the Child B8-9+AB criteria. Prospective validation should be performed to confirm this result, especially for other aetiologies of cirrhosis.Impact and implicationsIn this study, among individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding, the CLIF-Consortium acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) score could predict the survival benefit from pre-emptive TIPS, with patients with higher CLIF-C AD scores benefiting more from pre-emptive TIPS. Furthermore, the CLIF-C AD score outperformed the Child B8-9 plus active bleeding criteria in terms of discriminating between those who obtained more benefit vs. less benefit from pre-emptive TIPS. Depending on prospective validation, the CLIF-C AD score could be used as the model of choice to determine who should undergo pre-emptive TIPS.

Dataset Information

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

Publications

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

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