Dataset Information

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality.

Methods

In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032.

Findings

Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202,638 women: 50,640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50,639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101,359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202,546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50,624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50,623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101,299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345,570 MMS and 327,775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0-12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0-14 of 15% (95% CI -3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (-7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (-20 to 31) in years 0-7 and 23% (1-46) in years 7-14, and in the USS group, of 2% (-27 to 26) in years 0-7 and 21% (-2 to 42) in years 7-14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (-2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (-27 to 43) in years 0-7 and 28% (-3 to 49) in years 7-14 in favour of MMS.

Interpretation

Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7-14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening.

Funding

Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

SUBMITTER: Jacobs IJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4779792 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundOvarian cancer continues to have a poor prognosis with the majority of women diagnosed with advanced disease. Therefore, we undertook the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) to determine if population screening can reduce deaths due to the disease. We report on ovarian cancer mortality after long-term follow-up in UKCTOCS.MethodsIn this randomised controlled trial, postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years were recruited from 13 centres in National Health Service trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were bilateral oophorectomy, previous ovarian or active non-ovarian malignancy, or increased familial ovarian cancer risk. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS), annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. Follow-up was through national registries. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer (WHO 2014 criteria) by June 30, 2020. Analyses were by intention to screen, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening using the versatile test. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type, whereas the outcomes review committee were masked to randomisation group. This study is registered with ISRCTN, 22488978, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00058032.FindingsBetween April 17, 2001, and Sept 29, 2005, of 1 243 282 women invited, 202 638 were recruited and randomly assigned, and 202 562 were included in the analysis: 50 625 (25·0%) in the MMS group, 50 623 (25·0%) in the USS group, and 101 314 (50·0%) in the no screening group. At a median follow-up of 16·3 years (IQR 15·1-17·3), 2055 women were diagnosed with tubal or ovarian cancer: 522 (1·0%) of 50 625 in the MMS group, 517 (1·0%) of 50 623 in the USS group, and 1016 (1·0%) of 101 314 in the no screening group. Compared with no screening, there was a 47·2% (95% CI 19·7 to 81·1) increase in stage I and 24·5% (-41·8 to -2·0) decrease in stage IV disease incidence in the MMS group. Overall the incidence of stage I or II disease was 39·2% (95% CI 16·1 to 66·9) higher in the MMS group than in the no screening group, whereas the incidence of stage III or IV disease was 10·2% (-21·3 to 2·4) lower. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0·6%) of 50 625 in the MMS group, 291 (0·6%) of 50 623 in the USS group, and 619 (0·6%) of 101 314 in the no screening group. No significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths was observed in the MMS (p=0·58) or USS (p=0·36) groups compared with the no screening group.InterpretationThe reduction in stage III or IV disease incidence in the MMS group was not sufficient to translate into lives saved, illustrating the importance of specifying cancer mortality as the primary outcome in screening trials. Given that screening did not significantly reduce ovarian and tubal cancer deaths, general population screening cannot be recommended.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal.

Project description:Importance:The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is the largest randomized clinical trial to evaluate screening's impact on ovarian cancer mortality, assigning women to multimodal screening (MMS) with serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) interpreted using a risk algorithm. If the MMS screening method is eventually shown to reduce mortality and be cost-effective, then it may be accepted by the medical community as a feasible screening tool. Objective:To estimate the cost-effectiveness of an MMS screening program in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants:A Markov simulation model was constructed using data from UKCTOCS to compare MMS with no screening in the United States. Screening would begin at the age of 50 years for women in the general population. Published estimates of the long-term effect of MMS screening on ovarian cancer mortality and the trial's published hazard ratios were used to simulate mortality estimates up to 40 years from start of screening. Base-case costs included CA-125, ultrasound, and false-positive work-up results, in addition to a risk algorithm cost estimate of $100. The utility and costs of ovarian cancer treatment were incorporated into the model. Interventions:Screening strategies varied by costs of the algorithm and treatment for advanced ovarian cancer, rates of screening compliance, ovarian cancer incidence, and extrapolation of ovarian cancer mortality. Main Outcomes and Measures:Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and mortality reduction of ovarian cancer screening. Results:Multimodal screening is both more expensive and more effective in reducing ovarian cancer mortality over a lifetime than no screening. After accounting for uncertainty in the underlying parameters, screening women starting at age 50 years with MMS is cost-effective 70% of the time, when decision makers are willing to pay $150?000 per QALY. Screening reduced mortality by 15%, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranging from $106?187 (95% CI, $97?496-$127?793) to $155?256 (95% CI, $150?369-$198?567). Conclusions and Relevance:Ovarian cancer screening is potentially cost-effective in the United States depending on final significance of mortality reduction and cost of the CA-125 risk algorithm. These results are limited by uncertainty around the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality beyond the 11 years of UKCTOCS.

Project description:ObjectivesSeveral studies suggest that overall and central-obesity are associated with increased breast cancer (BC) risk in postmenopausal-women. However, there are no studies investigating changes of central obesity and BC. We report on the association of BC risk with self-reported skirt size (SS; waist-circumference proxy) changes between 20s and postmenopausal-age.DesignProspective cohort-study.SettingUK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) involving the nine trial centres in England.ParticipantsPostmenopausal-women aged >50 with no known history of BC prior to or on the day of completion of the study-entry questionnaire.InterventionsAt recruitment and at study entry, women were asked to complete a questionnaire. Women were followed-up via 'flagging' at the NHS Information Centre in England and the Hospital Episode Statistics.Main outcome-measureTime to initial BC diagnosis.ResultsBetween 2 January 2005 and 1 July 2010, 92,834 UKCTOCS participants (median age 64.0) completed the study-entry questionnaire. During median follow-up of 3.19 years (25th-75th centile: 2.46-3.78), 1090 women developed BC. Model adjusted analysis for potential confounders showed body mass index (BMI) at recruitment to UKCTOCS (HR for a 5 unit change=1.076, 95% CI 1.012 to 1.136), current SS at study entry (HR=1.051; 95% CI 1.014 to 1.089) and change in SS per 10 years (CSS) (HR=1.330; 95% CI 1.121 to 1.579) were associated with increased BC risk but not SS at 25 (HR=1.006; 95% CI 0.958 to 1.056). CSS was the most predictive singe adiposity measure and further analysis including both CSS and BMI in the model revealed CSS remained significant (HR=1.266; 95% CI 1.041 to 1.538) but not BMI (HR=1.037; 95% CI 0.970 to 1.109).ConclusionsCSS is associated with BC risk independent of BMI. A unit increase in UK SS (eg, 12-14) every 10-years between 25 and postmenopausal-age is associated with postmenopausal BC risk by 33%. Validation of these results could provide women with a simple and easy to understand message.Trial registration numberISRCTN22488978.

Project description:ObjectiveTo describe the quality assurance (QA) processes and their impact on visualization of postmenopausal ovaries in the ultrasound arm of a multicenter screening trial for ovarian cancer.MethodsIn the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 50 639 women aged 50-74 years were randomized to the ultrasound arm and underwent annual transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) examinations. QA processes were developed during the course of the trial and included regular monitoring of the visualization rate (VR) of the right ovary. Non-subjective factors identified previously as impacting on VR of the right ovary were included in a generalized estimating equation model for binary outcomes to enable comparison of observed vs adjusted VR between individual sonographers who had undertaken > 1000 scans during the trial and comparison between centers. Observed and adjusted VRs of sonographers and centers were ranked according to the highest VR. Analysis of annual VRs of sonographers and those of the included centers was undertaken.ResultsBetween June 2001 and December 2010, 48 230 of 50 639 women attended one of 13 centers for a total of 270 035 annual TVS scans. One or both ovaries were seen in 228 145 (84.5%) TVS scans. The right ovary was seen on 196 426 (72.7%) of the scans. For the 78 sonographers included in the model, the median difference between observed and adjusted VR was -0.7% (range, -7.9 to 5.9%) and the median change in VR rank after adjustment was 3 (range, 0-18). For the 13 centers, the median difference between observed and adjusted VR was -0.5% (range, -2.2 to 1%), with no change in ranking after adjustment. The median adjusted VR was 73% (interquartile range (IQR), 65-82%) for sonographers and 74.7% (IQR, 67.1-79.0%) for centers. Despite the increasing age of the women being scanned, there was a steady decrease in the number of sonographers with VR < 60% (21.4% in 2002 vs 2.0% in 2010) and an increase in sonographers with VR > 80% (14.3% in 2002 vs 40.8% in 2010). The median VR of the centers increased from 65.5% (range, 55.7-81.0%) in 2001 to 80.3% (range, 74.5-90.9%) in 2010.ConclusionsA robust QA program can improve visualization of postmenopausal ovaries and is an essential component of ultrasound-based ovarian cancer screening trials. While VR should be adjusted for non-subjective factors that impact on ovarian visualization, subjective factors are likely to be the largest contributors to differences in VR.