Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the costs and health effects of a range of interventions for preventing the spread of HIV and for treating people with HIV/AIDS in the context of the millennium development goal for combating HIV/AIDS.DesignCost effectiveness analysis based on an epidemiological model.SettingAnalyses undertaken for two regions classified using the WHO epidemiological grouping-Afr-E, countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality.Data sourcesBiological and behavioural parameters from clinical and observational studies and population based surveys. Intervention effects and resource inputs based on published reports, expert opinion, and the WHO-CHOICE database.Main outcome measuresCosts per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in 2000 international dollars (Int dollars).ResultsIn both regions interventions focused on mass media, education and treatment of sexually transmitted infections for female sex workers, and treatment of sexually transmitted infections in the general population cost < Int150 dollars per DALY averted. Voluntary counselling and testing costs < Int350 dollars per DALY averted in both regions, while prevention of mother to child transmission costs < Int50 dollars per DALY averted in Afr-E but around Int850 dollars per DALY in Sear-D. School based education strategies and various antiretroviral treatment strategies cost between Int500 dollars and Int5000 dollars per DALY averted.ConclusionsReducing HIV transmission could be done most efficiently through mass media campaigns, interventions for sex workers and treatment of sexually transmitted infections where resources are most scarce. However, prevention of mother to child transmission, voluntary counselling and testing, and school based education would yield further health gains at higher budget levels and would be regarded as cost effective or highly cost effective based on standard international benchmarks. Antiretroviral therapy is at least as cost effective in improving population health as some of these interventions.
Project description:Objectivea) To assess the suitability of the curriculum content and didactical quality of information delivered to educate journalists in the J2J program in HIV/AIDS (process evaluation) and b) to explore the effects of such programs on journalists' reporting of HIV/AIDS related information (outcome evaluation).DesignDescriptive study.MethodsFor the process evaluation, each J2J program curriculum was evaluated for accuracy and pertinence by individuals with high familiarity with HIV/AIDS research. For the outcome evaluation, a survey of J2J attendees and evaluations of the program lectures by attendees were performed in chronological order to determine their perception on usefulness of the program.ResultsOverall, the J2J curriculum is successful in providing journalists with a clear understanding of the current HIV/AIDS medical research objectives and issues with most journalists reporting an increased ability to better investigate and disseminate accurate information on this subject. Furthermore, the journalists surveyed reported positive community responses directly as a result of the J2J training.ConclusionThe J2J program helps to increase global awareness of pertinent HIV/AIDS concepts. Through this professional development strategy, journalists from around the world may help to amplify efforts to prevent new HIV infections and quench the dissemination of inaccurate information and folklore.
Project description:In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.
Project description:BackgroundThe Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has reported that HIV/AIDS continues to take a disproportionate toll on global health. However, the trends in global inequality of HIV/AIDS burden have remained ambiguous over the past two decades. The objectives of our study were to assess the socioeconomic inequalities, and temporal trends of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.MethodsWe extracted data from the GBD 2019, and conducted a cross-national time-series analysis. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates were used to measure the global burden of HIV/AIDS. Gross national income (GNI) per capita was used to approximate the national socioeconomic status. Linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between age-standardized DALY rates due to HIV/AIDS and GNI per capita. The concentration curve and concentration index (CI) were generated to evaluate the cross-national socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to quantify the changes in trends in socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden from 2000 to 2019.ResultsA decrease in age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS occurred in 132 (71%) of 186 countries/territories from 2000 to 2019, of which 52 (39%) countries/territories achieved a decrease in DALYs of more than 50%, and 27 (52%) of the 52 were from sub-Saharan Africa. The concentration curves of the age-standardized DALY rates of HIV/AIDS were above the equality line from 2000 to 2019. The CI rose from - 0.4625 (95% confidence interval - 0.6220 to -0.2629) in 2000 to -0.4122 (95% confidence interval - 0.6008 to -0.2235) in 2019. A four-phase trend of changes in the CIs of age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS was observed across 2000 to 2019, with an average increase of 0.6% (95% confidence interval 0.4 to 0.8, P < 0.001).ConclusionsGlobally, the burden of HIV/AIDS has decreased over the past two decades, accompanied by a trend of narrowing cross-country inequalities of HIV/AIDS burden. Moreover, the burden of HIV/AIDS continues to fall primarily in low-income countries.
Project description:IntroductionChurches occupy an important social and cultural position in Madagascar. The sexual transmission of HIV raises controversies about the role that Churches can play in preventing HIV/AIDS. This cross-sectional survey investigated recommendations by religious leaders for condom use and other preventive strategies in the context of international guidelines.MethodsA questionnaire was self-administered to a random sample of religious leaders. The questions related to preventive methods against HIV/AIDS such as: condom use, marital fidelity, sexual abstinence before marriage, and HIV-testing. Associations with recommendations for condom use were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.ResultsOf 231 religious leaders, 215 (93.1%) were willing to share their knowledge of HIV/AIDS with their congregations. The majority received their information from the media (N=136, 58.9%), a minority from their church (N=9, 3.9%), and 38 (16.4%) had received prior training on HIV. Nearly all (N=212, 91.8%) knew that HIV could be sexually transmitted though only a few (N=39, 16.9%) were aware of mother-to-child transmission or unsafe injections (N=56, 24.2%). A total of 91 (39.4%) were willing to, or had recommended (N=64, 27.7%), condom use, while 50 (21.6%) had undergone HIV testing. Only nine (3.9%) had ever cared for a person living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). Multivariable logistic regression shows that condom use recommendations by religious leaders were negatively associated with tertiary level education (OR: 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.7), and positively associated with knowing a person at risk (OR: 16.2, 95% CI 3.2-80.2), knowing of an ART center (OR: 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8), and receiving information about HIV at school (OR: 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.6).ConclusionsMalagasy church leaders could potentially become key players in HIV/AIDS prevention if they improved their knowledge of the illness, their commitment to international recommendations, and extended their interaction with people most at risk.
Project description:BackgroundThe Investment Framework Enhanced (IFE) proposed in 2013 by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) explored how maximizing existing interventions and adding emerging prevention options, including a vaccine, could further reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This article describes additional modeling which looks more closely at the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of AIDS vaccination in LMICs as part of UNAIDS IFE.MethodsAn epidemiological model was used to explore the potential impact of AIDS vaccination in LMICs in combination with other interventions through 2070. Assumptions were based on perspectives from research, vaccination and public health experts, as well as observations from other HIV/AIDS interventions and vaccination programs. Sensitivity analyses varied vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, coverage, and cost.ResultsIf UNAIDS IFE goals were fully achieved, new annual HIV infections in LMICs would decline from 2.0 million in 2014 to 550,000 in 2070. A 70% efficacious vaccine introduced in 2027 with three doses, strong uptake and five years of protection would reduce annual new infections by 44% over the first decade, by 65% the first 25 years and by 78% to 122,000 in 2070. Vaccine impact would be much greater if the assumptions in UNAIDS IFE were not fully achieved. An AIDS vaccine would be cost-effective within a wide range of scenarios.InterpretationEven a modestly effective vaccine could contribute strongly to a sustainable response to HIV/AIDS and be cost-effective, even with optimistic assumptions about other interventions. Higher efficacy would provide even greater impact and cost-effectiveness, and would support broader access. Vaccine efficacy and cost per regimen are critical in achieving cost-effectiveness, with cost per regimen being particularly critical in low-income countries and at lower efficacy levels.
Project description:Globally, health research organizations are called upon to re-examine their policies and practices to more efficiently and effectively address current scientific and social needs, as well as increasing public demands for accountability.Through a case study approach, the authors examine an effort undertaken by the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases (part of the National Institutes of Health, Department of Health & Human Services, United States Government) to develop an evaluation system for its recently restructured HIV/AIDS clinical trials program. The challenges in designing, operationalizing, and managing global clinical trials programs are considered in the context of large scale scientific research initiatives.Through a process of extensive stakeholder input, a framework of success factors was developed that enables both a prospective view of the elements that must be addressed in an evaluation of this research and a current state assessment of the extent to which the goals of the restructuring are understood by stakeholders across the DAIDS clinical research networks.