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Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global risk of zinc deficiency. METHODS:We estimated per capita per day bioavailable intake of zinc for the populations of 188 countries at ambient CO2 concentrations (375-384 ppm) using food balance sheet data for 2003-07 from the Food and Agriculture Organization. We then used previously published data from free air CO2 enrichment and open-top chamber experiments to model zinc intake at elevated CO2 concentrations (550 ppm, which is the concentration expected by 2050). Estimates developed by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group were used for country-specific theoretical mean daily per-capita physiological requirements for zinc. Finally, we used these data on zinc bioavailability and population-weighted estimated average zinc requirements to estimate the risk of inadequate zinc intake among the populations of the different nations under the two scenarios (ambient and elevated CO2). The difference between the population at risk at elevated and ambient CO2 concentrations (ie, population at new risk of zinc deficiency) was our measure of impact. FINDINGS:The total number of people estimated to be placed at new risk of zinc deficiency by 2050 was 138 million (95% CI 120-156). The people likely to be most affected live in Africa and South Asia, with nearly 48 million (32-63) residing in India alone. Global maps of increased risk show significant heterogeneity. INTERPRETATION:Our results indicate that one heretofore unquantified human health effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be a significant increase in the human population at risk of zinc deficiency. Our country-specific findings can be used to help guide interventions aimed at reducing this vulnerability. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Winslow Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Myers SS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4784541 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

Myers Samuel S SS Wessells K Ryan KR Kloog Itai I Zanobetti Antonella A Schwartz Joel J

The Lancet. Global health 20150715 10

<h4>Background</h4>Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to e ...[more]

PMID: 26189102

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Project description:BackgroundIncreasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050.MethodsIn this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability.FindingsAlthough technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4·1%, iron of 2·8%, and zinc of 2·5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2·9%, iron of 3·9%, and zinc of 3·4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19·5% for protein, 14·4% for iron, and 14·6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected.InterpretationThis approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO2, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies.FundingUS Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).

Project description:Atmospheric CO2 concentrations can determine the number of stomata that form on plant leaves (Woodward & Kelly 1995 New Phyt 131: 311-327). The majority of species exhibit reduced stomatal densities at elevated CO2. However, not all plant species react in the same way to elevated CO2 levels and there is a spectrum of effects: Some species increase stomatal densities, some decrease stomatal densities, and some are unaffected. In addition to which, other environmental factors influence the number of stomata that a plant form. Light intensity has also been shown to affect stomatal numbers in various Arabidopsis ecotypes (Schluter et al. 2003 J Exp Bot 54 (383): 867-874; Lake et al. 2002 J Exp Bot 53 (367): 183-193), by increasing stomatal numbers with increasing light levels. There are many changes in gene expression under elevated CO2 conditions, so pinpointing specific genes involved in the stomatal response to CO2 is difficult. In addition, if there is crosstalk between the various signalling pathways affecting ultimate stomatal numbers this complicates further the task of finding genes specifically involved the stomatal response to CO2. Therefore we propose to look at the interaction of two known influences on stomatal numbers, light and CO2, on one specific ecotype, Col-0. We aim to test the hypothesis that light signals interact the CO2 signals that affect stomatal development. Arabidopsis thaliana Columbia-0 ecotype has previously been shown to decrease stomatal numbers in response to a doubling of ambient CO2 concentrations. Col-0 has also been shown to increase stomatal numbers in response to high light intensities. Therefore we propose to grow A. thaliana Col-0 at three light intensities (50 mmol m-2 s-1, 150 mmol m-2 s-1 and 250 mmol m-2 s-1), in both ambient and elevated (double ambient) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. By looking in more detail at how gene expression differs between plants grown at ambient and elevated CO2 at the same light intensities, and also how gene expression differs between plants grown at the same CO2 concentration but different light intensities, we aim to identify those genes involved in the stomatal developmental response to CO2 and whether genes involved in the light response can also be isolated. Experimenter name = Susannah Bird Experimenter phone = (0114) 222 4649 Experimenter address = Animal and Plant Science Department Experimenter address = Alfred Denny Building Experimenter address = Western Bank Experimenter address = Sheffield Experimenter zip/postal_code = S10 2TN Experimenter country = UK Keywords: growth_condition_design

Project description:Atmospheric CO2 concentrations can determine the number of stomata that form on plant leaves (Woodward & Kelly 1995 New Phyt 131: 311-327). The majority of species exhibit reduced stomatal densities at elevated CO2. However, not all plant species react in the same way to elevated CO2 levels and there is a spectrum of effects: Some species increase stomatal densities, some decrease stomatal densities, and some are unaffected. In addition to which, other environmental factors influence the number of stomata that a plant form. Light intensity has also been shown to affect stomatal numbers in various Arabidopsis ecotypes (Schluter et al. 2003 J Exp Bot 54 (383): 867-874; Lake et al. 2002 J Exp Bot 53 (367): 183-193), by increasing stomatal numbers with increasing light levels. There are many changes in gene expression under elevated CO2 conditions, so pinpointing specific genes involved in the stomatal response to CO2 is difficult. In addition, if there is crosstalk between the various signalling pathways affecting ultimate stomatal numbers this complicates further the task of finding genes specifically involved the stomatal response to CO2. Therefore we propose to look at the interaction of two known influences on stomatal numbers, light and CO2, on one specific ecotype, Col-0. We aim to test the hypothesis that light signals interact the CO2 signals that affect stomatal development. Arabidopsis thaliana Columbia-0 ecotype has previously been shown to decrease stomatal numbers in response to a doubling of ambient CO2 concentrations. Col-0 has also been shown to increase stomatal numbers in response to high light intensities. Therefore we propose to grow A. thaliana Col-0 at three light intensities (50 mmol m-2 s-1, 150 mmol m-2 s-1 and 250 mmol m-2 s-1), in both ambient and elevated (double ambient) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. By looking in more detail at how gene expression differs between plants grown at ambient and elevated CO2 at the same light intensities, and also how gene expression differs between plants grown at the same CO2 concentration but different light intensities, we aim to identify those genes involved in the stomatal developmental response to CO2 and whether genes involved in the light response can also be isolated. Experimenter name = Susannah Bird; Experimenter phone = (0114) 222 4649; Experimenter address = Animal and Plant Science Department; Experimenter address = Alfred Denny Building; Experimenter address = Western Bank; Experimenter address = Sheffield; Experimenter zip/postal_code = S10 2TN; Experimenter country = UK Experiment Overall Design: 6 samples were used in this experiment

Project description:Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels' changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ-GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.

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Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

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Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

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