ABSTRACT: The Grain for Green Program (GGP) is the largest afforestation and reforestation project in China in the early part of this century. To assess carbon sequestration in stands under the GGP in Southwest China, the carbon stocks and their annual changes in the GGP stands in the region were estimated based on the following information: (1) collected data on the annually planted area of each tree species under the GGP in Southwest China from 1999 to 2010; (2) development of empirical growth curves and corresponding carbon estimation models for each species growing in the GPP stands; and (3) parameters associated with the stands such as wood density, biomass expansion factor, carbon fraction and the change rate of soil organic carbon content. Two forest management scenarios were examined: scenario A, with no harvesting, and scenario B, with logging at the customary rotation followed by replanting. The results showed that by the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060, the expected carbon storage of the GGP stands in Southwest China is 139.58 TgC, 177.50-207.55 TgC, 196.86-259.65 TgC, 240.45-290.62 TgC and 203.22-310.03 TgC (T = 1012), respectively. For the same years, the expected annual change in carbon stocks is 7.96 TgCyr-1, -7.95-5.95 TgCyr-1, -0.10-4.67 TgCyr-1, 4.31-2.24 TgCyr-1 and -0.02-1.75 TgCyr-1, respectively. This indicates that the stands significantly contribute to forest carbon sinks in this region. In 2060, the estimated carbon stocks in the seven major species of GGP stands in Southwest China are 4.16-13.01 TgC for Pinus armandii, 6.30-15.01 TgC for Pinus massoniana, 11.51-13.44 TgC for Cryptomeria fortunei, 15.94-24.13 TgC for Cunninghamia lanceolata, 28.05 TgC for Cupressus spp., 5.32-15.63 TgC for Populus deltoides and 5.87-14.09 TgC for Eucalyptus spp. The carbon stocks in these seven species account for 36.8%-41.4% of the total carbon stocks in all GGP stands over the next 50 years.
