Dataset Information

Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity) squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC) epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012). MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm in carcinogenesis and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of biological mechanisms. APC models seek to differentiate between the temporal effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cancer risk. Previous studies have looked at the effect of period and cohort on tumor initiation, and we extend this to compare model fits of period and cohort effects on each of tumor initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion rates. HPV-related, HPV-unrelated except oral tongue, and HPV-unrelated oral tongue sites are best described by placing period and cohort effects on the initiation rate. HPV-related and non-oral-tongue HPV-unrelated cancers have similar promotion rates, suggesting similar tumorigenesis dynamics once initiated. Estimates of promotion rates at oral tongue sites are lower, corresponding to a longer sojourn time; this finding is consistent with the hypothesis of an etiology distinct from HPV or alcohol and tobacco use. Finally, for the three subsite groups, men have higher initiation rates than women of the same race, and black people have higher promotion than white people of the same sex. These differences explain part of the racial and sex differences in OSCC incidence.

SUBMITTER: Brouwer AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4786132 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

Brouwer Andrew F AF Eisenberg Marisa C MC Meza Rafael R

PloS one 20160310 3

Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity) squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC) epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012). MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion p ...[more]

PMID: 26963717

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Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of diagnosed autism has increased rapidly over the last several decades among U.S. children. Environmental factors are thought to be driving this increase and a list of the top ten suspected environmental toxins was published recently.MethodsTemporal trends in autism for birth years 1970-2005 were derived from a combination of data from the California Department of Developmental Services (CDDS) and the United States Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). Temporal trends in suspected toxins were derived from data compiled during an extensive literature survey. Toxin and autism trends were compared by visual inspection and computed correlation coefficients. Using IDEA data, autism prevalence vs. birth year trends were calculated independently from snapshots of data from the most recent annual report, and by tracking prevalence at a constant age over many years of reports. The ratio of the snapshot:tracking trend slopes was used to estimate the "real" fraction of the increase in autism.ResultsThe CDDS and IDEA data sets are qualitatively consistent in suggesting a strong increase in autism prevalence over recent decades. The quantitative comparison of IDEA snapshot and constant-age tracking trend slopes suggests that ~75-80% of the tracked increase in autism since 1988 is due to an actual increase in the disorder rather than to changing diagnostic criteria. Most of the suspected environmental toxins examined have flat or decreasing temporal trends that correlate poorly to the rise in autism. Some, including lead, organochlorine pesticides and vehicular emissions, have strongly decreasing trends. Among the suspected toxins surveyed, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, aluminum adjuvants, and the herbicide glyphosate have increasing trends that correlate positively to the rise in autism.ConclusionsDiagnosed autism prevalence has risen dramatically in the U.S over the last several decades and continued to trend upward as of birth year 2005. The increase is mainly real and has occurred mostly since the late 1980s. In contrast, children's exposure to most of the top ten toxic compounds has remained flat or decreased over this same time frame. Environmental factors with increasing temporal trends can help suggest hypotheses for drivers of autism that merit further investigation.

Project description:Background and objectivesLarge-scale, contemporary studies exploring glomerular disease epidemiology in the United States are lacking. We aimed to determine 30-year temporal and demographic trends in renal biopsy glomerular disease diagnosis frequencies in the southeastern United States.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsIn this cross-sectional, observational study, we identified all patients with a native kidney biopsy specimen showing one of 18 widely recognized glomerular disease diagnoses referred to the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill Division of Nephropathology between 1986 and 2015. Biopsy era (1986-1995, 1996-2005, and 2006-2015) and demographics (age, sex, and race) were our primary and secondary predictors, respectively, and the relative frequency of each glomerular disease diagnosis was our primary outcome.ResultsAmong 21,374 patients (mean age =48.3±18.3 years old; 50.8% men; 56.8% white; 38.3% black; 2.8% Latino; 1.4% Asian; 0.8% other), the frequency of diabetic glomerulosclerosis in renal biopsy specimens increased dramatically over the three decades (5.5%, 11.4%, and 19.1% of diagnoses, respectively; P for trend <0.001). The frequency of FSGS initially increased but then declined (22.6%, 27.2%, and 24.7%, respectively; P for trend =0.64). The frequencies of other common glomerular disease subtypes remained stable (IgA nephropathy and ANCA/pauci-immune GN) or declined (minimal change disease, membranous nephropathy, membranoproliferative GN, and lupus nephritis). These temporal trends were largely preserved within all demographic subgroups, although cross-sectional frequency distributions differed according to age, sex, and race.ConclusionsWe identified significant changes in relative renal biopsy frequencies of many glomerular disease subtypes over three decades. Temporal trends were consistently observed within all major demographic groups, although relative predominance of individual glomerular disease subtypes differed according to patient age, sex, and race. We propose that exploration of behavioral and environmental exposures that likely underlie these findings should be the focus of future hypothesis-driven research.

Dataset Information

Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

Publications

Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

Similar Datasets

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