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Effect of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for improved HIV care engagement: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: The recently updated White House National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) includes specific progress indicators to improve the HIV care continuum in the USA, but the economic and epidemiological effect of achieving those indicators remains unclear. We aimed to project the impact of achieving NHAS goals on HIV incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs among adults in the USA over 10 years.We constructed a dynamic transmission model of HIV progression and care engagement based on literature sources and the most recent published US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. We specifically considered achievement of the 2020 targets set forth in NHAS progress indicator 1 (90% awareness of serostatus), indicator 4 (85% linkage within 1 month), and indicator 5 (90% of diagnosed individuals in care).At current rates of engagement in the HIV care continuum, we project 524,000 (95% uncertainty range 442,000-712,000) new HIV infections and 375,000 deaths (364,000-578,000) between 2016 and 2025. Achievement of NHAS progress indicators 1 and 4 has modest epidemiological effect (new infections reduced by 2·0% and 3·9%, respectively). By contrast, increasing the proportion of diagnosed individuals in care (NHAS indicator 5) averts 52% (95% UR 47-56) of new infections. Achievement of all NHAS targets resulted in a 58% reduction (95% UR 52-61) in new infections and 128 000 lives saved (106,000-223,000) at an incremental health system cost of US$105 billion.Achievement of NHAS progress indicators for screening, linkage, and particularly improving retention in care, can substantially reduce the burden of HIV in the USA, but continued and increased financial investment will be required.The National Institutes of Health, the B Frank and Kathleen Polk Assistant Professorship in Epidemiology, Emory University CFAR, Johns Hopkins University CFAR, and CDC/NCHHSTP Epidemiological and Economic Modeling Agreement (5U38PS004646).

SUBMITTER: Shah M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4787987 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effect of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for improved HIV care engagement: a modelling study.

Shah Maunank M Perry Allison A Risher Kathryn K Kapoor Sunaina S Grey Jeremy J Sharma Akshay A Rosenberg Eli S ES Del Rio Carlos C Sullivan Patrick P Dowdy David W DW

The lancet. HIV 20160208 3

<h4>Background</h4>The recently updated White House National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) includes specific progress indicators to improve the HIV care continuum in the USA, but the economic and epidemiological effect of achieving those indicators remains unclear. We aimed to project the impact of achieving NHAS goals on HIV incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs among adults in the USA over 10 years.<h4>Methods</h4>We constructed a dynamic transmission model of HIV progression and care engagem ...[more]

PMID: 26939737

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Since 1998 the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World Health Organization has provided estimates on the magnitude of the HIV epidemic for individual countries. Starting with the 2003 estimates, plausibility bounds about the estimates were also reported. The bounds are intended to serve as a guide as to what reasonable or plausible ranges are for the uncertainty in HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. METHODS: Plausibility bounds were developed for three situations: for countries with generalised epidemics, for countries with low level or concentrated epidemics (LLC), and for regions. The techniques used build on those developed for the previous reporting round. However the current bounds are based on the available surveillance and survey data from each individual country rather than on data from a few prototypical countries. RESULTS: The uncertainty around the HIV estimates depends on the quality of the surveillance system in the country. Countries with population based HIV seroprevalence surveys have the tightest plausibility bounds (average relative range about the adult HIV prevalence (ARR) of -18% to +19%.) Generalised epidemic countries without a survey have the next tightest ranges (average ARR of -46% to +59%). Those LLC countries which have conducted multiple surveys over time for HIV among the populations most at risk have the bounds similar to those in generalised epidemic countries (ARR -40% to +67%). As the number and quality of the studies in LLC countries goes down, the plausibility bounds increase (ARR of -38% to +102% for countries with medium quality data and ARR of -53% to +183% for countries with poor quality data). The plausibility bounds for regions directly reflect the bounds for the countries in those regions. CONCLUSIONS: Although scientific, the plausibility bounds do not represent and should not be interpreted as formal statistical confidence intervals. However in order to make the bounds as meaningful as possible the authors have tried to apply reasonable statistical approaches and assumptions to their derivation. An understanding of the uncertainty in the HIV estimates may help policy makers take better informed decisions to address the epidemic in their respective countries.

Project description:Born out of a necessity for fiscal sustainability, simulation modeling is playing an increasingly prominent role in setting priorities for combination implementation strategies for HIV treatment and prevention globally. The design of a model and the data inputted into it are central factors in ensuring credible inferences. We executed a narrative review of a set of dynamic HIV transmission models to comprehensively synthesize and compare the structural design and the quality of evidence used to support each model. We included 19 models representing both generalized and concentrated epidemics, classified as compartmental, agent-based, individual-based microsimulation or hybrid in our review. We focused on four structural components (population construction; model entry, exit and HIV care engagement; HIV disease progression; and the force of HIV infection), and two analytical components (model calibration/validation; and health economic evaluation, including uncertainty analysis). While the models we reviewed focused on a variety of individual interventions and their combinations, their structural designs were relatively homogenous across three of the four focal components, with key structural elements influenced by model type and epidemiological context. In contrast, model entry, exit and HIV care engagement tended to differ most across models, with some health system interactions-particularly HIV testing-not modeled explicitly in many contexts. The quality of data used in the models and the transparency with which the data was presented differed substantially across model components. Representative and high-quality data on health service delivery were most commonly not accessed or were unavailable. The structure of an HIV model should ideally fit its epidemiological context and be able to capture all efficacious treatment and prevention services relevant to a robust combination implementation strategy. Developing standardized guidelines on evidence syntheses for health economic evaluation would improve transparency and help prioritize data collection to reduce decision uncertainty.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2014, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) issued treatment goals for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The 90-90-90 target specifies that by 2020, 90% of individuals living with HIV will know their HIV status, 90% of people with diagnosed HIV infection will receive antiretroviral treatment (ART), and 90% of those taking ART will be virally suppressed. Consistent methods and routine reporting in the public domain will be necessary for tracking progress towards the 90-90-90 target.Methods and findingsFor the period 2010-2016, we searched PubMed, UNAIDS country progress reports, World Health Organization (WHO), UNAIDS reports, national surveillance and program reports, United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Country Operational Plans, and conference presentations and/or abstracts for the latest available national HIV care continuum in the public domain. Continua of care included the number and proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are diagnosed, on ART, and virally suppressed out of the estimated number of PLHIV. We ranked the described methods for indicators to derive high-, medium-, and low-quality continuum. For 2010-2016, we identified 53 national care continua with viral suppression estimates representing 19.7 million (54%) of the 2015 global estimate of PLHIV. Of the 53, 6 (with 2% of global burden) were high quality, using standard surveillance methods to derive an overall denominator and program data from national cohorts for estimating steps in the continuum. Only nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa had care continua with viral suppression estimates. Of the 53 countries, the average proportion of the aggregate of PLHIV from all countries on ART was 48%, and the proportion of PLHIV who were virally suppressed was 40%. Seven countries (Sweden, Cambodia, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Denmark, Rwanda, and Namibia) were within 12% and 10% of achieving the 90-90-90 target for "on ART" and for "viral suppression," respectively. The limitations to consider when interpreting the results include significant variation in methods used to determine national continua and the possibility that complete continua were not available through our comprehensive search of the public domain.ConclusionsRelatively few complete national continua of care are available in the public domain, and there is considerable variation in the methods for determining progress towards the 90-90-90 target. Despite bearing the highest HIV burden, national care continua from sub-Saharan Africa were less likely to be in the public domain. A standardized monitoring and evaluation approach could improve the use of scarce resources to achieve 90-90-90 through improved transparency, accountability, and efficiency.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:HIV and AIDS care requires frequent visits to the hospital. Patient satisfaction with care services during hospital visits is important in considering quality and outcome of care. Increasing number of patients needing treatment led to the decentralization of care to lower level hospitals without documented patient perception on the quality of services. The study determined and compared patient satisfaction with HIV and AIDS care services in public and private hospitals and identified the factors that influence it. METHOD:This was a cross-sectional comparative study of patients receiving antiretroviral treatment in public and private hospitals in Anambra State. The sampling frame for the hospitals consisted of all registered public and private hospitals that have rendered antiretroviral services for at least one year. There were three public urban, nine public rural, eleven private urban and ten private rural hospitals that met the criteria. One hospital was selected by simple random sampling (balloting) from each group. Out of a total of 6334 eligible patients (had received ART for at least 12 months), 1270 were recruited by simple random sampling from the hospitals proportionate to size of patient in each hospital. Adapted, validated and pretested Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ18) was interviewer-administered on consenting patients as an exit interview. A Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were conducted at 5% level of significance. RESULT:There were 635 participants each in public and private hospitals. Of the 408 patients who had primary education or less, 265(65.0%) accessed care in public hospitals compared to 143(35.0%) who accessed care in private hospital (p<0.001). Similarly, of the 851 patients who were currently married, 371 (43.6%) accessed their care in public compared to 480 (56.4%) who accessed care in private (p<0.001). The proportion of participants who were satisfied were more in public hospitals (71.5%) compared to private hospitals (41.4%). The difference in proportion was statistically significant (?2 = 116.85, p <0.001). Good retention in care [AOR: 2.3, 95%CI: 1.5-3.5] was the only predictor of satisfaction in public hospitals while primary education [adjusted odds ratio (AOR); 2.3, 95%CI: 1.5-3.4], residing in rural area [AOR: 2.0, 95%CI: 1.4-2.9], and once-daily dosing [AOR: 3.2, 95%CI: 2.1-4.8] were independent predictors of patient' satisfaction among private hospital respondents. CONCLUSION:Satisfaction was higher among patients attending public hospitals. Patient's satisfaction was strongly associated with retention in care among patients in public hospitals. However, in private hospitals, it was influenced by the patient's level of education, place of residence, and antiretroviral medication dosing frequency.

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Effect of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for improved HIV care engagement: a modelling study.

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Effect of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for improved HIV care engagement: a modelling study.

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