Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wheldon MC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4798897 | biostudies-literature | 2016
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo compare treatment effects from randomised trials conducted in more developed versus less developed countries.DesignMeta-epidemiological study.Data sourcesCochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (August 2012).Data extractionMeta-analyses with mortality outcomes including data from at least one randomised trial conducted in a less developed country and one in a more developed country. Relative risk estimates of more versus less developed countries were compared by calculating the relative relative risks for each topic and the summary relative relative risks across all topics. Similar analyses were performed for the primary binary outcome of each topic.Results139 meta-analyses with mortality outcomes were eligible. No nominally significant differences between more developed and less developed countries were found for 128 (92%) meta-analyses. However, differences were beyond chance in 11 (8%) cases, always showing more favourable treatment effects in trials from less developed countries. The summary relative relative risk was 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.18; P<0.001; I(2)=0%), suggesting significantly more favourable mortality effects in trials from less developed countries. Results were similar for meta-analyses with nominally significant treatment effects for mortality (1.15), meta-analyses with recent trials (1.14), and when excluding trials from less developed countries that subsequently became more developed (1.12). For the primary binary outcomes (127 meta-analyses), 20 topics had differences in treatment effects beyond chance (more favourable in less developed countries in 15/20 cases).ConclusionsTrials from less developed countries in a few cases show significantly more favourable treatment effects than trials in more developed countries and, on average, treatment effects are more favourable in less developed countries. These discrepancies may reflect biases in reporting or study design as well as genuine differences in baseline risk or treatment implementation and should be considers when generalising evidence across different settings.
| S-EPMC3570069 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and is a major cardiovascular challenge due to its close association with increased morbidity and mortality. Although the incidence and prevalence of AF is slightly lower in developing countries than in developed countries, the AF-associated risk of stroke is similar. Treatment of AF is far from satisfactory in developing countries, which may be due to limited health-care resources and social and racial characteristics that differ from Western populations. Chronic rate control is still the main treatment strategy of persistent AF because anti-arrhythmic drugs have only a modest long-term effect on maintenance of sinus rhythm, and no superior impact in terms of cardiovascular outcomes. With the development of ablation techniques and strategies, more AF patients received catheter ablation, although the benefit, complications, and high recurrence rate associated with AF ablation remain under investigation. Improvement in antithrombotic therapy of AF has been observed, although still fewer patients receive oral anticoagulants in developing countries than in Western countries. Novel treatment for the prevention of thromboembolism, such as new oral anticoagulants with different mechanisms of action or the percutaneous transcatheter closure of the left atrial appendage, has recently been introduced in developing countries as an alternative option for the prevention of AF-associated strokes. More data are needed regarding upstream therapy.
| S-EPMC4956295 | biostudies-other
Project description:Recently, the rate of cancer deaths in less-developed countries such as Bangladesh has significantly increased day by day, making it a major health issue. The most predominant types of cancers among the populations of less-developed countries (especially Bangladesh) are lung, throat, colon, gastric, ovarian, breast, and skin cancers. The mortality rate is increasing for both males and females. The main common factors are smoking, use of tobacco leaves, bacterial or viral infection, hereditary disorders, food adulterations, and environmental factors, which are highly responsible for the development of carcinoma in the young to adult population in this region. Raising consciousness among people regarding early diagnosis, decreasing the use of chemicals such as formalin for food preservation, and reducing environmental pollution such as arsenic as well as air pollution might help to reduce the number of deaths. Education and public campaigns can also reduce the intensity of cancer occurrence. Breast, esophagus, and cervical cancer are common diseases in less-developed countries such as Bangladesh.
| S-EPMC8949682 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8674610 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the urbanization of national populations has been a key concern for environmental scholars for several decades. Although sophisticated modeling techniques have been developed to explore the connection between increases in urban populations and CO2 emissions, none has attempted to assess whether declines in urbanization have an effect on emissions that is not symmetrical with that of growth in urbanization. The present study uses panel data on CO2 emissions and the percentage of individuals living in urban areas, as well as a variety of other structural factors, for less-developed countries from 1960-2010, to empirically assess whether the effect of growth in urban populations on emissions is symmetrical with the effect of decline. Findings indicate that the effect of growth/decline in urban populations on CO2 emissions is asymmetrical, where a decline in urbanization reduces emissions to a much greater degree than urbanization increases emissions. We hypothesize that this is at least in part because deurbanization is connected with disruptions to the production and distribution of goods and services and/or access to electricity and other energy sources. Our finding suggests that not only the absolute level of urbanization of nations matters for emissions, but also how the patterns of migration between rural and urban areas change over time. Future research should be mindful of the processes behind deurbanization when exploring socioeconomic drivers of CO2 emissions.
| S-EPMC6286174 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Research is crucial to implement evidence-based health interventions for control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study aims to assess main features of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for control of NCDs, and to identify gaps in clinical research on NCDs between high-income and less developed countries. The study included 1177 RCTs in 82 Cochrane Systematic reviews (CSRs) and evaluated interventions for adults with hypertension, diabetes, stroke, or heart diseases. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore factors associated with risk of bias in included RCTs. We found that 78.2% of RCTs of interventions for major NCDs recruited patients in high-income countries. The number of RCTs included in the CSRs was increasing over time, and the increasing speed was more noticeable for RCTs conducted in middle-income countries. RCTs conducted in less developed countries tended to be more recently published, less likely to be published in English, with smaller sample sizes, and at a higher risk of bias. In conclusion, there is still a lack of research evidence for control of NCDs in less developed countries. To brace for rising NCDs and avoid waste of scarce research resources, not only more but also higher quality clinical trials are required in low-and-middle-income countries.
| S-EPMC4642521 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundRepresenting over 50% of the healthcare workforce, nurses provide care to people at all ages. This study advances, at a population level, that high levels of nursing services, measured by nurse density may significantly promote population ageing measured by the percentage of a population over 65 years of age (65yo%).MethodsPopulation level data was examined to explore the correlation between nurse density and 65yo%. The confounding impacts on ageing such as the effects of economic affluence, physician density, fertility rate, obesity and urban advantages were also considered. Scatter plots, bivariate correlation, partial correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were performed for examining the correlations.ResultsNurse density correlated to 65yo%; this relationship was independent of other influences such as fertility rate, economic affluence, obesity prevalence, physician density and urban advantages. Second to fertility rate, nursing density had the greatest influence on 65yo%. The predicting and confounding variables explain 74.4% of the total 65yo% variance. The universal correlations identified in country groupings suggest that low nurse density may be a significant global concern.ConclusionsWhile nurse density might contribute significantly to 65yo% globally, the effect was more prominent in developed countries. Ironically, countries with higher nurse densities and therefore greater levels of 65yo%, were countries with an increased need for more nursing staff. To highlight the profound implications for the role the nursing profession plays especially at a time of global nursing shortage, further study into the effects of long-run elasticity of nurse staffing level on population ageing may be needed. For instance, what percentage of nursing staff increase would be required to meet every 1% increase of an ageing population.
| S-EPMC10540962 | biostudies-literature
Project description:One of the biggest problems in global health is the lack of well trained and supported health workers in less developed settings. In many rural areas there are no physicians, and it is important to find ways to support and empower nurses and other health workers. The Knowledge Translation Unit of the University of Cape Town Lung Institute has spent 14 years developing a series of innovative packages to support and empower nurses and other health workers. PACK (Practical Approach to Care Kit) Adult comprises policy-based and evidence-informed guidelines; onsite, team and case-based training; non-physician prescribing; and a cascade system of scaling up. A series of randomised trials has shown the effectiveness of the packages, and methods are now being developed to respond cost-effectively and sustainably to global demand for implementing PACK Adult. Global health would probably benefit from less time and money spent developing new innovations and more spent on finding ways to spread those we already have.
| S-EPMC4680195 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIt is unknown whether inequalities in under-5 mortality by wealth in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are growing or declining.MethodsAll Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2002 and 2012 were used to measure under-5 mortality trends in 3 wealth tertiles. Two approaches were used to estimate changes in under-5 mortality: within-survey changes from all 54 countries, and between-survey changes for 29 countries with repeated survey waves. The principal outcome measures include annual decline in mortality, and the ratio of mortality between the poorest and least-poor wealth tertiles.ResultsMortality information in 85 surveys from 929 224 households and 1 267 167 women living in 54 countries was used. In the subset of 29 countries with repeat surveys, mortality declined annually by 4.36, 3.36, and 2.06 deaths per 1000 live births among the poorest, middle, and least-poor tertiles, respectively (P = .031 for difference). The mortality ratio declined from 1.68 to 1.48 during the study period (P = .006 for trend). In the complete set of 85 surveys, the mortality ratio declined in 64 surveys (from 2.11 to 1.55), and increased in 21 surveys (from 1.58 to 1.88). Multivariate analyses suggest that convergence was associated with good governance (P ≤ .03 for 4 governance indicators: government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory quality, and control of corruption).ConclusionsOverall, under-5 mortality in low- and middle-income countries has decreased faster among the poorest compared with the least poor between 1995 and 2012, but progress in some countries has lagged, especially with poor governance.
| S-EPMC4243072 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Projections of countries' future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. We propose a bayesian method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. The total fertility rate and female and male life expectancies at birth are projected probabilistically using bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo using United Nations population data for all countries. These are then converted to age-specific rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of any population quantity of interest. The method is illustrated for five countries of different demographic stages, continents and sizes. The method is validated by an out of sample experiment in which data from 1950-1990 are used for estimation, and applied to predict 1990-2010. The method appears reasonably accurate and well calibrated for this period. The results suggest that the current United Nations high and low variants greatly underestimate uncertainty about the number of oldest old from about 2050 and that they underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries and overstate uncertainty for countries that have completed the demographic transition and whose fertility has started to recover towards replacement level, mostly in Europe. The results also indicate that the potential support ratio (persons aged 20-64 per person aged 65+) will almost certainly decline dramatically in most countries over the coming decades.
| S-EPMC3435191 | biostudies-literature