Dataset Information

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

ABSTRACT: The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch's multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11-57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014-15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

SUBMITTER: Semmens BX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4800428 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

Semmens Brice X BX Semmens Darius J DJ Thogmartin Wayne E WE Wiederholt Ruscena R López-Hoffman Laura L Diffendorfer Jay E JE Pleasants John M JM Oberhauser Karen S KS Taylor Orley R OR

Scientific reports 20160321

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch's multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space mod ...[more]

PMID: 26997124

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Project description:North American monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) undergo a spectacular fall migration. In contrast to summer butterflies, migrants are juvenile hormone (JH) deficient, which leads to reproductive diapause and increased longevity. Migrants also utilize time-compensated sun compass orientation to help them navigate to their overwintering grounds. Here, we describe a brain expressed sequence tag (EST) resource to identify genes involved in migratory behaviors. A brain EST library was constructed from summer and migrating butterflies. Of 9,484 unique sequences, 6068 had positive hits with the non-redundant protein database; the EST database likely represents approximately 52% of the gene-encoding potential of the monarch genome. The brain transcriptome was cataloged using Gene Ontology and compared to Drosophila. Monarch genes were well represented, including those implicated in behavior. Three genes involved in increased JH activity (allatotropin, juvenile hormone acid methyltransfersase, and takeout) were upregulated in summer butterflies, compared to migrants. The locomotion-relevant turtle gene was marginally upregulated in migrants, while the foraging and single-minded genes were not differentially regulated. Many of the genes important for the monarch circadian clock mechanism (involved in sun compass orientation) were in the EST resource, including the newly identified cryptochrome 2. The EST database also revealed a novel Na+/K+ ATPase allele predicted to be more resistant to the toxic effects of milkweed than that reported previously. Potential genetic markers were identified from 3,486 EST contigs and included 1599 double-hit single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 98 microsatellite polymorphisms. These data provide a template of the brain transcriptome for the monarch butterfly. Our "snap-shot" analysis of the differential regulation of candidate genes between summer and migratory butterflies suggests that unbiased, comprehensive transcriptional profiling will inform the molecular basis of migration. The identified SNPs and microsatellite polymorphisms can be used as genetic markers to address questions of population and subspecies structure.

Project description:The eastern population of the North American monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwinters from November through March in the high-altitude (3000 m+) forests of central Mexico during which time they rely largely on stored lipids. These are acquired during larval development and the conversion of sugars from floral nectar by adults. We sampled fall migrant monarchs from southern Canada through the migratory route to two overwintering sites in 2019 (n = 10 locations), 2020 (n = 8 locations) and 2021 (n = 7 locations). Moderate to extreme droughts along the migratory route were expected to result in low lipid levels in overwintering monarchs but our analysis of lipid levels of monarchs collected at overwintering sites indicated that in all years most had high levels of lipids prior to winter. Clearly, a significant proportion of lipids were consistently acquired in Mexico during the last portion of the migration. Drought conditions in Oklahoma, Texas and northern Mexico in 2019 resulted in the lowest levels of lipid mass and wing loading observed in that year but with higher levels at locations southward in Mexico to the overwintering sites. Compared with 2019, lipid levels increased during the 2020 and 2021 fall migrations but were again higher during the Mexican portion of the migration than for Oklahoma and Texas samples, emphasizing a recovery of lipids as monarchs advanced toward the overwintering locations. In all 3 years, body water was highest during the Canada-USA phase of migration but then declined during the nectar foraging phase in Mexico before recovering again at the overwintering sites. The increase in mass and lipids from those in Texas to the overwintering sites in Mexico indicates that nectar availability in Mexico can compensate for poor conditions experienced further north. Our work emphasizes the need to maintain the floral and therefore nectar resources that fuel both the migration and storage of lipids throughout the entire migratory route.

Dataset Information

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

Publications

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

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