Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially Diverse Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
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ABSTRACT: Background
Existing equations for prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed and validated in white and African-American populations. Whether these models adequately predict AF in more racially and ethnically diverse populations is unknown.Methods and results
We studied 6663 men and women 45 to 84 years of age without AF at baseline (2000-2002) enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Of these, 38% were non-Hispanic whites, 28% non-Hispanic African Americans, 22% Hispanics, and 12% Chinese Americans. AF during follow-up was ascertained from hospitalization discharge codes through 2012. Information collected at baseline was used to calculate predicted 5-year risk of AF using the previously published simple CHARGE-AF model, which only includes clinical variables, and a biomarker-enriched CHARGE-AF model, which also considers levels of circulating N-terminal of the prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein. For comparison purposes, we also assessed performance of the 10-year Framingham AF model. During a mean follow-up of 10.2 years, 351 cases of AF were identified. The C-statistic of the CHARGE-AF models were 0.779 (95% CI, 0.744-0.814) for the simple model and 0.825 (95% CI, 0.791-0.860) for the biomarker-enriched model. Calibration was adequate in the biomarker-enriched model (?(2)=7.9; P=0.55), but suboptimal in the simple model (?(2)=25.6; P=0.002). In contrast, the 10-year Framingham score had a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.746 (0.720-0.771) and showed poor calibration (?(2)=57.4; P<0.0001).Conclusion
The CHARGE-AF risk models adequately predicted 5-year AF risk in a large multiethnic cohort. These models could be useful to select high-risk individuals for AF screening programs or for primary prevention trials in diverse populations.
SUBMITTER: Alonso A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4802458 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially Diverse Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
Alonso Alvaro A Roetker Nicholas S NS Soliman Elsayed Z EZ Chen Lin Y LY Greenland Philip P Heckbert Susan R SR
Journal of the American Heart Association 20160223 2
<h4>Background</h4>Existing equations for prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed and validated in white and African-American populations. Whether these models adequately predict AF in more racially and ethnically diverse populations is unknown.<h4>Methods and results</h4>We studied 6663 men and women 45 to 84 years of age without AF at baseline (2000-2002) enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Of these, 38% were non-Hispanic whites, 28% non-Hispanic Af ...[more]
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Project description:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is prevalent and strongly associated with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Machine learning is increasingly used to identify novel predictors of CVD risk, but prediction improvements beyond established risk scores are uncertain. We evaluated improvements in predicting 5-year AF risk when adding novel candidate variables identified by machine learning to the CHARGE-AF Enriched score, which includes age, race/ethnicity, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and NT-proBNP. We included 3,534 participants (mean age, 61.3 years; 52.0% female) with complete data from the prospective Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Incident AF was defined based on study electrocardiograms and hospital discharge diagnosis ICD-9 codes, supplemented by Medicare claims. Prediction performance was evaluated using Cox regression and a parsimonious model was selected using LASSO. Within 5 years of baseline, 124 participants had incident AF. Compared with the CHARGE-AF Enriched model (c-statistic, 0.804), variables identified by machine learning, including biomarkers, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging variables, electrocardiogram variables, and subclinical CVD variables, did not significantly improve prediction. A 23-item score derived by machine learning achieved a c-statistic of 0.806, whereas a parsimonious model including the clinical risk factors age, weight, current smoking, NT-proBNP, coronary artery calcium score, and cardiac troponin-T achieved a c-statistic of 0.802. This analysis confirms that the CHARGE-AF Enriched model and a parsimonious 6-item model performed similarly to a more extensive model derived by machine learning. In conclusion, these simple models remain the gold standard for risk prediction of AF, although addition of the coronary artery calcium score should be considered.
| S-EPMC6911821 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo determine the prevalence and correlates of left atrial (LA) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) at cardiac MRI and its association with atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based sample from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).Materials and methodsIn this secondary post hoc analysis of the MESA cohort (ClinicalTrials.gov no. NCT00005487), participants without AF underwent LGE cardiac MRI at the fifth examination (2010-2012). LA LGE burden was quantified using the image intensity ratio technique on biplane long-axis two-dimensional (2D) LGE images without fat saturation. Survival analysis was performed with log-rank testing and Cox regression.ResultsOf 1697 participants (mean age, 67 years ± 9 [SD]; 872 men), 1035 (61%) had LA LGE, and 75 (4.4%) developed AF during follow-up (median, 3.95 years). At univariable analysis, LA LGE was associated with age (β = .010 [95% CI: .005, .015], P < .001), diastolic blood pressure (β = .005 [95% CI: .001, .009], P = .02), HbA1c level (β = .06 [95% CI: .02, .11], P = .009), heart failure (β = .60 [95% CI: .11, 1.08], P = .02), LA volume (β = .008 [95% CI: .004, .012], P < .001), and LA function (emptying fraction, LA global longitudinal strain, LA early diastolic peak longitudinal strain rate, and LA late diastolic peak strain rate; all P < .05). After adjusting for the variables in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) AF score, LA LGE independently helped predict incident AF (hazard ratio = 1.46 [95% CI: 1.13, 1.88], P = .003). The highest tertile (LGE > 2%) was twice as likely to develop AF.ConclusionAlthough limited by the 2D LGE technique employed, LA LGE was associated with adverse atrial remodeling and helped predict AF in a multiethnic population-based sample.Clinical trial registration no. NCT00005487Keywords: MR Imaging, Cardiac, Epidemiology Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2023.
| S-EPMC10483245 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE:Atrial fibrillation is more prevalent in men than women. Due to these sex differences in atrial fibrillation susceptibility, we examined whether sex hormones have differing associations with atrial fibrillation risk in men and women. METHODS:This analysis included 4883 (mean age?=?63?±?10 years; 39% women; 64% non-white) participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Sex hormones (total testosterone, bioavailable testosterone, estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin) were measured at baseline (2000-2002) for all male and all postmenopausal female participants. Atrial fibrillation was ascertained by hospital discharge records, Medicare claims data, and study electrocardiograms through December 31, 2012. RESULTS:Over a median follow-up of 10.9 years, a total of 613 (13%) atrial fibrillation cases were detected. A higher incidence rate of atrial fibrillation was observed for males (n?=?385, age-standardized incidence rate per 1000 person-years?=?12.3, 95%CI?=?11.1, 13.6) than females (n?=?228, age-standardized incidence rate per 1000 person-years?=?9.0, 95%CI?=?7.9, 10.3). In men, higher bioavailable testosterone levels were associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk (HR?=?1.32, 95%CI?=?1.01, 1.74; p?=?0.044; comparing 3rd to 1st tertile), while an association in the opposite direction was observed for women (HR?=?0.81, 95%CI?=?0.58, 1.13; p?=?0.22; comparing 3rd to 1st tertile). Other hormones were not associated with atrial fibrillation in men or women. CONCLUSION:Higher levels of endogenous bioavailable testosterone contribute to atrial fibrillation development in men. The combination of endogenous bioavailable testosterone and other risk factors potentially are important for atrial fibrillation development in men.
| S-EPMC5693706 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeErectile dysfunction has been associated with atrial fibrillation in cross-sectional studies, but the association of erectile dysfunction with incident atrial fibrillation is less well established. This study aimed to determine whether erectile dysfunction is independently associated with incident atrial fibrillation after adjusting for conventional risk factors.MethodsWe studied 1760 male participants (mean age 68 ± 9 years) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), who completed self-reported erectile dysfunction assessment at MESA exam 5 (2010-2012). Cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate the unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) using 3 models in which variables were added in a stepwise manner. In model 3, HR was adjusted for age, race and ethnicity, education, smoking status, alcohol use, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, diabetes, anti-hypertensive medication use, lipid-lowering medication use, total cholesterol, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.ResultsDuring the median follow-up of 3.8 (interquartile range, 3.5-4.2) years, 94 cases of incident atrial fibrillation were observed. There was a significant difference between males with and without erectile dysfunction for cumulative incident atrial fibrillation rates at 4 years (9.6 vs 2.9%, P < .01). In the fully adjusted model, erectile dysfunction remained associated with incident atrial fibrillation (model 3; HR, 1.66; 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.72, P = .044).ConclusionsAmong older male participants in this prospective study, we found that self-reported erectile dysfunction was associated with incident atrial fibrillation.
| S-EPMC7228839 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:While studies of the left atrium (LA) have demonstrated associations between volumes and emptying fraction with atrial fibrillation (AF), the contribution of right atrial (RA) abnormalities to incident AF remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVES:Assess the association between RA structure and function with incident AF using feature-tracking cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). METHODS:This is a prospective cohort study of all participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with baseline CMR, sinus rhythm, and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at study initiation. RA volume, strain, and emptying fraction in participants with incident AF (n = 368) were compared against AF-free (n = 2779). Cox proportional-hazards models assessed association between variables. RESULTS:Participants were aged 60 ± 10 yrs., 55% female, and followed an average 11.2 years. Individuals developing AF had higher baseline RA maximum volume index (mean ± standard deviation [SD]: 24 ± 9 vs 22 ± 8 mL/m2, p = 0.002) and minimum volume index (13 ± 7 vs 12 ± 6 mL/m2, p < 0.001), and lower baseline RA emptying fraction (45 ± 15% vs 47 ± 15%, p = 0.02), peak global strain (34 ± 17% vs 36 ± 19%, p < 0.001), and peak free-wall strain (40 ± 23% vs 42 ± 26%, p = 0.049) compared with the AF-free population. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and LA volume and function, we found RA maximum volume index (hazards ratio [HR]: 1.13 per SD, p = 0.041) and minimum volume index (HR: 1.12 per SD, p = 0.037) were independently associated with incident AF. CONCLUSIONS:In a large multiethnic population, higher RA volume indices were independently associated with incident AF after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors and LA parameters. It is unclear if this predictive value persists when additional adjustment is made for ventricular parameters.
| S-EPMC7240918 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic values as predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF). Purpose To investigate the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI) and average annualized change in LACI (hereafter, ΔLACI) measured by cardiac MRI to predict incident AF in a population-based sample from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of the prospective MESA, 1911 study participants without clinically recognized AF and cardiovascular disease at baseline had LACI assessed with cardiac MRI at baseline (examination 1, 2000-2002) and 10 years later (examination 5, 2010-2012). LACI was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and average ΔLACI with incident AF. Results Among the 1911 participants (mean age, 59 years ± 9 [standard deviation]; 907 men), 87 incident AF events occurred over 3.9 years ± 0.9 after the second imaging (examination 5). After adjustment for traditional risk factors, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with AF (hazard ratio, 1.69 [95% CI: 1.46, 1.96] and 1.71 [95% CI: 1.50, 1.94], respectively; both P < .001). Adjusted models for LACI and ΔLACI showed improvement in model discrimination compared with currently used AF risk score (Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation, or CHARGE-AF, score) model (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.78 vs 0.74; and AUC, 0.80 vs 0.74, respectively; both P < .001); and to the final model including individual LA or LV parameters for predicting AF incidence (AUC, 0.78 vs 0.76; and AUC, 0.80 vs 0.78, respectively; both P < .001). Conclusion Atrioventricular coupling (left atrioventricular coupling index [LACI]) and coupling change (annual change in LACI) were strong predictors for atrial fibrillation (AF) in a multiethnic population. Both had incremental prognostic value for predicting AF over traditional risk factors, and superior discrimination compared with the Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation, or CHARGE-AF, score and to individual left atrial or left ventricular parameters. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Leiner in this issue.
| S-EPMC9081516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Early detection of structural changes in left atrium (LA) before atrial fibrillation (AF) development could be helpful in identification of those at higher risk for AF. Using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, we examined the association of LA volume and function, and incident AF in a multiethnic population free of clinical cardiovascular diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS:In a case-cohort study embedded in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), baseline LA size and function assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance feature-tracking were compared between 197 participants with incident AF and 322 participants randomly selected from the whole MESA cohort. Participants were followed up for 8 years. Incident AF cases had a larger LA volume and decreased passive, active, and total LA emptying fractions and peak global LA longitudinal strain (peak LA strain) at baseline. In multivariable analysis, elevated LA maximum volume index (hazard ratio, 1.38 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.89) and decreased peak LA strain (hazard ratio, 0.68 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.96), and passive and total LA emptying fractions (hazard ratio for passive LA emptying fractions, 0.55 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.75 and hazard ratio for active LA emptying fractions, 0.70 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.95), but not active LA emptying fraction, were associated with incident AF. CONCLUSIONS:Elevated LA volumes and decreased passive and total LA emptying fractions were independently associated with incident AF in an asymptomatic multiethnic population. Including LA functional variables along with other risk factors of AF may help to better risk stratify individuals at risk of AF development.
| S-EPMC4985021 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEmerging evidence has implicated that inflammation contributes to the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation (AF). GlycA is a novel marker of systemic inflammation with low intra-individual variability and high analytic precision. GlycA has been associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) independent of other inflammatory markers. However, whether GlycA is associated with AF, specifically, has yet to be established. We examined the association between GlycA and AF in a multi-ethnic cohort.MethodsWe studied 6,602 MESA participants aged 45-85, with no clinical CVD at baseline, with data on GlycA and incident AF. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox models to evaluate the association between GlycA and incident AF. We also examined other inflammatory markers [high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL6) and fibrinogen] and incident AF for comparison.ResultsThe mean (SD) age was 62 (10) years, 53% women. The mean plasma GlycA was 381 (62) μmol/L. Over median follow-up of 12.9 years, 869 participants experienced AF. There was no statistically significant association between GlycA and incident AF after adjusting for sociodemographics, CVD risk factors, and other inflammatory markers [Hazard Ratio (95% CI) per 1 SD increment in GlycA: 0.97 (0.88-1.06)]. Neither hsCRP nor fibrinogen was associated with incident AF in same model. In contrast, IL-6 was independently associated with incident AF [HR 1.12 per 1 SD increment (1.05-1.19)].ConclusionsAlthough GlycA has been associated with other CVD types, we found that GlycA was not associated with AF. More research will be required to understand why IL-6 was associated with AF but not GlycA.Clinical trial registrationMESA is not a clinical trial. However, the cohort is registered at: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00005487 Unique identifier: NCT00005487.
| S-EPMC7993599 | biostudies-literature
Project description:<p><b>MESA</b><br/> The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a study of the characteristics of subclinical cardiovascular disease (disease detected non-invasively before it has produced clinical signs and symptoms) and the risk factors that predict progression to clinically overt cardiovascular disease or progression of the subclinical disease. MESA researchers study a diverse, population-based sample of 6,814 asymptomatic men and women aged 45-84. Thirty-eight percent of the recruited participants are white, 28 percent African-American, 22 percent Hispanic, and 12 percent Asian, predominantly of Chinese descent.</p> <p>Participants were recruited from six field centers across the United States: Wake Forest University, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University, University of Minnesota, Northwestern University and University of California - Los Angeles. Each participant received an extensive physical exam to determine coronary calcification, ventricular mass and function, flow-mediated endothelial vasodilation, carotid intimal-medial wall thickness and presence of echogenic lucencies in the carotid artery, lower extremity vascular insufficiency, arterial wave forms, electrocardiographic (ECG) measures, standard coronary risk factors, sociodemographic factors, lifestyle factors, and psychosocial factors. Selected repetition of subclinical disease measures and risk factors at follow-up visits allows study of the progression of disease. Blood samples have been assayed for putative biochemical risk factors and stored for case-control studies. DNA has been extracted and lymphocytes cryopreserved (for possible immortalization) for study of candidate genes and possibly, genome-wide scanning, expression, and other genetic techniques. Participants are being followed for identification and characterization of cardiovascular disease events, including acute myocardial infarction and other forms of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and congestive heart failure; for cardiovascular disease interventions; and for mortality.</p> <p>In addition to the six Field Centers, MESA involves a Coordinating Center, a Central Laboratory, and Central Reading Centers for Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), Ultrasound, and Electrocardiography (ECG). Protocol development, staff training, and pilot testing were performed in the first 18 months of the study. The first examination took place over two years, from July 2000 - July 2002. It was followed by four examination periods that were 17-20 months in length. Participants have been contacted every 9 to 12 months throughout the study to assess clinical morbidity and mortality.</p> <p><b>MESA Family</b><br/> The general goal of the MESA Family Study, an ancillary study to MESA funded by a grant from NHLBI, is to apply modern genetic analysis and genotyping methodologies to delineate the genetic determinants of early atherosclerosis. This is being accomplished by utilizing all the current organizational structures of the <b>Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)</b> and Genetic Centers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and University of Virginia.</p> <p>In the MESA Family Study, the goal is to locate and identify genes contributing to the genetic risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), by looking at the early changes of atherosclerosis within families (mainly siblings). 2128 individuals from 594 families, yielding 3,026 sibpairs divided between African Americans and Hispanic-Americans, were recruited by utilizing the existing framework of MESA. MESA Family studied siblings of index subjects from the MESA study and from new sibpair families (with the same demographic characteristics) and is determining the extent of genetic contribution to the variation in coronary calcium (obtained via CT Scan) and carotid artery wall thickness (B-mode ultrasound) in the two largest non-majority U.S. populations. In a small proportion of subjects, parents of MESA index subjects participating in MESA Family were studied but only to have blood drawn for genotyping.</p> <p>The MESA Family cohort was recruited from the six MESA Field Centers. MESA Family participants underwent the same examination as MESA participants during May 2004 - May 2007. DNA was extracted and lymphocytes immortalized for study of candidate genes, genome-wide linkage scanning, and analyzed for linkage with these subclinical cardiovascular traits. While linkage analysis is the primary approach being used, an additional aspect of the MESA Family Study takes advantage of the existing MESA study population for testing a variety of candidate genes for association with the same subclinical traits. Genotyping and data analysis will occur throughout the study.</p> <p><b>MESA Air</b><br/> The general goal of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution ('MESA Air') is to prospectively examine the relation between an individual level assessment of long-term ambient air pollution exposures (including PM<sub>2.5</sub> and the progression of subclinical cardiovascular disease in a multi-city, multi-ethnic cohort. MESA Air will also prospectively examine the relationship between an individual level assessment of long-term ambient air pollution exposures and the incidence of cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. MESA AIR is funded by a grant from the United States Environmental Protection Agency to the University of Washington and subcontracts from the UW to other participating institutions.</p> <p>MESA Air will assess if ambient air pollution is associated with changes over time in subclinical measures of atherosclerosis and plasma markers of inflammation, oxidative damage, and endothelial activation in a longitudinal data model, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and specific cardiovascular risk factors (such as diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and diet). The study will similarly assess if the incidence of cardiovascular events is associated with long-term exposure to ambient air pollution, using a proportional hazards model. The study includes refinement of statistical tools, and explores joint/independent effects of acute and long-term pollutant exposure in the occurrence of cardiovascular disease.</p> <p>The MESA Air study is built on the foundation of the ongoing MESA study. The parent MESA Study cohort is located in six geographic areas ('Field Centers') that capture tremendous exposure heterogeneity, comparable to or greater than the variability in locations of prior U.S. cohort studies. In addition to the six Field Centers, the study involves a Coordinating Center, a Central Laboratory, and Reading Centers for Computed Tomography (CT), ultrasound and air pollution data.</p> <p>The cohort for the MESA Air study currently includes 6226 subjects: 5479 enrolled in the parent MESA study; 257 recruited specifically for this study, and 490 recruited from the MESA Family study. The entire MESA Air cohort will be followed over a 10-year project period for the occurrence of cardiovascular disease events.</p> <p>On two occasions over the ten-year study period, 3600 subjects from the MESA Air cohort, residing in nine locales, will undergo computed tomography scanning to assess presence and extent of coronary artery calcification (CAC), and ultrasound of the carotid artery to determine intima-media thickness (IMT). We will also repeatedly assess plasma markers of inflammation, oxidative damage, and endothelial function in 720 subjects.</p> <p>MESA Air adds state-of-the-art air pollution exposure assessment information to the MESA cohort study, and introduces new subjects and outcome measures to achieve our aims. The study will assess long-term individual-level exposure to ambient air pollutants for each subject using community-scale monitoring, outdoor spatial variation, subject proximity to pollution sources, pollutants' infiltration efficiency, and personal time-activity information. The exposure models will be validated using detailed monitoring in a subset of subjects.</p> <p><b>The MESA Cohort is utilized in the following dbGaP substudies.</b> To view genotypes, analysis, expression data, other molecular data, and derived variables collected in these substudies, please click on the following substudies below or in the "Substudies" box located on the right hand side of this top-level study page phs000209 MESA Cohort. <ul> <li><a href="./study.cgi?study_id=phs000420">phs000420</a> MESA SHARe</li> <li><a href="./study.cgi?study_id=phs000283">phs000283</a> MESA CARe</li> </ul> </p>
| phs000209.v10.p2 | EGA
Project description:Right ventricular (RV) morphology has been associated with drivers of atrial fibrillation (AF) risk, including left ventricular and pulmonary pathology, systemic inflammation, and neurohormonal activation. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between RV morphology and risk of incident AF. We interpreted cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in 4204 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Incident AF was determined using hospital discharge records, study electrocardiograms, and Medicare claims data. The study sample (n=3819) was 61±10 years old and 47% male with 47.2% current/former smokers. After adjustment for demographics and clinical factors, including incident heart failure, higher RV ejection fraction (hazard ratio, 1.16 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.32; P=0.02) and greater RV mass (hazard ratio, 1.25 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.44; P=0.002) were significantly associated with incident AF. After additional adjustment for the respective left ventricular parameter, higher RV ejection fraction remained significantly associated with incident AF (hazard ratio, 1.15 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.32; P=0.04), whereas the association was attenuated for RV mass (hazard ratio, 1.16 per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.35; P=0.07). In a subset of patients with available spirometry (n=2540), higher RV ejection fraction and mass remained significantly associated with incident AF after additional adjustment for lung function (P=0.02 for both). Higher RV ejection fraction and greater RV mass were associated with an increased risk of AF in a multiethnic population free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline.
| S-EPMC5261825 | biostudies-literature