Follow-up of Ebola Patient, 2014-2015.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Srinivas V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4806952 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Follow-up of Ebola Patient, 2014-2015.
Srinivas Venkatesh V Yadav Pragya P Mittal Veena V Chaubal Gouri G Chhabra Mala M Mattoo Sanjay S Rai Arvind A Mourya Devendra T DT
Emerging infectious diseases 20160401 4
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Project description:The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence.
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Project description:BackgroundDuring the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Liberia, contact tracing was implemented to rapidly detect new cases and prevent further transmission. We describe the scope and characteristics of contact tracing in Liberia and assess its performance during the 2014-2015 EVD epidemic.Methodology/principal findingsWe performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of data collection forms for contact tracing conducted in six counties during June 2014-July 2015. EVD case counts from situation reports in the same counties were used to assess contact tracing coverage and sensitivity. Contacts who presented with symptoms and/or died, and monitoring was stopped, were classified as "potential cases". Positive predictive value (PPV) was defined as the proportion of traced contacts who were identified as potential cases. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify characteristics among potential cases. We analyzed 25,830 contact tracing records for contacts who had monitoring initiated or were last exposed between June 4, 2014 and July 13, 2015. Contact tracing was initiated for 26.7% of total EVD cases and detected 3.6% of all new cases during this period. Eighty-eight percent of contacts completed monitoring, and 334 contacts were identified as potential cases (PPV = 1.4%). Potential cases were more likely to be detected early in the outbreak; hail from rural areas; report multiple exposures and symptoms; have household contact or direct bodily or fluid contact; and report nausea, fever, or weakness compared to contacts who completed monitoring.Conclusions/significanceContact tracing was a critical intervention in Liberia and represented one of the largest contact tracing efforts during an epidemic in history. While there were notable improvements in implementation over time, these data suggest there were limitations to its performance-particularly in urban districts and during peak transmission. Recommendations for improving performance include integrated surveillance, decentralized management of multidisciplinary teams, comprehensive protocols, and community-led strategies.
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Project description:BackgroundPerceived susceptibility to a disease threat (risk perception) can influence protective behaviour. This study aims to determine how exposure to information sources, knowledge and behaviours potentially influenced risk perceptions during the 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Sierra Leone.MethodsThe study is based on three cross-sectional, national surveys (August 2014, n = 1413; October 2014, n = 2086; December 2014, n = 3540) that measured Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices in Sierra Leone. Data were pooled and composite variables were created for knowledge, misconceptions and three Ebola-specific behaviours. Risk perception was measured using a Likert-item and dichotomised into 'no risk perception' and 'some risk perception'. Exposure to five information sources was dichotomised into a binary variable for exposed and unexposed. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to examine various associations.ResultsExposure to new media (e.g. internet) and community-level information sources (e.g. religious leaders) were positively associated with expressing risk perception. Ebola-specific knowledge and hand washing were positively associated with expressing risk perception (Adjusted OR [AOR] 1.4, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.2-1.8 and AOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7 respectively), whereas misconceptions and avoiding burials were negatively associated with risk perception, (AOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.8 and AOR 0.8, 95% CI 06-1.0, respectively).ConclusionsOur results illustrate the complexity of how individuals perceived their Ebola acquisition risk based on the way they received information, what they knew about Ebola, and actions they took to protect themselves. Community-level information sources may help to align the public's perceived risk with their actual epidemiological risk. As part of global health security efforts, increased investments are needed for community-level engagements that allow for two-way communication during health emergencies.
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Project description:The clinical, virologic, and immunologic findings in a female Ebola virus disease patient are described. During the long-term follow-up, Ebola virus RNA was detectable in vaginal fluid before 36 days after symptom onset, with nearly an identical genome sequence as in acute phase blood. Ebola-specific T cells retained activation at 56 days after disease onset.
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Project description:BackgroundWhile a number of predictors for Ebola mortality have been identified, less is known about post-viral symptoms. The identification of acute-illness predictors for post-viral symptoms could allow the selection of patients for more active follow up in the future, and those in whom early interventions may be beneficial in the long term. Studying predictors of both mortality and post-viral symptoms within a single cohort of patients could also further our understanding of the pathophysiology of survivor sequelae.Methods/principal findingsWe performed a historical cohort study using data collected as part of routine clinical care from an Ebola Treatment Centre (ETC) in Kerry Town, Sierra Leone, in order to identify predictors of mortality and of post-viral symptoms. Variables included as potential predictors were sex, age, date of admission, first recorded viral load at the ETC and symptoms (recorded upon presentation at the ETC). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors. Of 263 Ebola-confirmed patients admitted between November 2014 and March 2015, 151 (57%) survived to ETC discharge. Viral load was the strongest predictor of mortality (adjusted OR comparing high with low viral load: 84.97, 95% CI 30.87-345.94). We did not find evidence that a high viral load predicted post-viral symptoms (ocular: 1.17, 95% CI 0.35-3.97; musculoskeletal: 1.07, 95% CI 0.28-4.08). Ocular post-viral symptoms were more common in females (2.31, 95% CI 0.98-5.43) and in those who had experienced hiccups during the acute phase (4.73, 95% CI 0.90-24.73).Conclusions/significanceThese findings may add epidemiological support to the hypothesis that post-viral symptoms have an immune-mediated aspect and may not only be a consequence of high viral load and disease severity.
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Project description:An outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia began in March 2014 and ended in January 2016. Epidemiological information on the EVD cases was collected and managed nationally; however, collection and management of the data were challenging at the time because surveillance and reporting systems malfunctioned during the outbreak. EVD diagnostic laboratories, however, were able to register basic demographic and clinical information of patients more systematically. Here we present data on 16,370 laboratory samples that were tested between April 4, 2014 and March 29, 2015. A total of 10,536 traceable individuals were identified, of whom 3,897 were confirmed cases (positive for Ebola virus RNA). There were significant differences in sex, age, and place of residence between confirmed and suspected cases that tested negative for Ebola virus RNA. Age (young children and the elderly) and place of residence (rural areas) were the risk factors for death due to the disease. The case fatality rate of confirmed cases decreased from 80% to 63% during the study period. These findings may help support future investigations and lead to a fuller understanding of the outbreak in Liberia.
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