Dataset Information

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model.

ABSTRACT: The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 - 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 - 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Shubin M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4807082 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model.

Shubin Mikhail M Lebedev Artem A Lyytikäinen Outi O Auranen Kari K

PLoS computational biology 20160324 3

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (20 ...[more]

PMID: 27010206

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Project description:Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks and pose a continuous pandemic threat. Although vaccines are available for influenza control, their efficacy varies each season and a vaccine for a novel pandemic virus manufactured using current technology will not be available fast enough to mitigate the effect of the first pandemic wave. Antivirals can be effective against many different influenza viruses but have not thus far been used extensively for outbreak control. Baloxavir, a recently licensed antiviral drug that targets the influenza virus endonuclease, has been shown to reduce virus shedding more effectively than oseltamivir, a widely used neuraminidase inhibitor drug. Thus it is possible that treatment with baloxavir might also interrupt onward virus transmission. To test this, we utilized the ferret model, which is the most commonly used animal model to study influenza virus transmission. We established a subcutaneous baloxavir administration method in ferrets which achieved similar pharmacokinetics to the approved human oral dose. Transmission studies were then conducted in two different locations with different experimental setups to compare the onward transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus from infected ferrets treated with baloxavir, oseltamivir or placebo to naïve sentinel ferrets exposed either indirectly in adjacent cages or directly by co-housing. We found that baloxavir treatment reduced infectious viral shedding in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets compared to placebo, and reduced the frequency of transmission amongst sentinels in both experimental setups, even when treatment was delayed until 2 days post-infection. In contrast, oseltamivir treatment did not substantially affect viral shedding or transmission compared to placebo. We did not detect the emergence of baloxavir-resistant variants in treated animals or in untreated sentinels. Our results support the concept that antivirals which decrease viral shedding could also reduce influenza transmission in the community.

Project description:ObjectivesTo review neurological complications after the influenza A (H1N1) pdm09, highlighting the clinical differences between patients with post-vaccine or viral infection.DesignA search on Medline, Ovid, EMBASE, and PubMed databases using the keywords “neurological complications of Influenza AH1N1” or “post-vaccine Influenza AH1N1.”SettingOnly papers written in English, Spanish, German, French, Portuguese, and Italian published from March 2009 to December 2012 were included.SampleWe included 104 articles presenting a total of 1636 patient cases. In addition, two cases of influenza vaccine-related neurological events from our neurological care center, arising during the period of study, were also included.Main outcome measuresDemographic data and clinical diagnosis of neurological complications and outcomes: death, neurological sequelae or recovery after influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 vaccine or infection.ResultsThe retrieved cases were divided into two groups: the postvaccination group, with 287 patients, and the viral infection group, with 1349 patients. Most patients in the first group were adults. The main neurological complications were Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) or polyneuropathy (125), and seizures (23). All patients survived. Pediatric patients were predominant in the viral infection group. In this group, 60 patients (4.7%) died and 52 (30.1%) developed permanent sequelae. A wide spectrum of neurological complications was observed.ConclusionsFatal cases and severe, permanent, neurological sequelae were observed in the infection group only. Clinical outcome was more favorable in the post-vaccination group. In this context, the relevance of an accurate neurological evaluation is demonstrated for all suspicious cases, as well as the need of an appropriate long-term clinical and imaging follow-up of infection and post-vaccination events related to influenza A (H1N1) pdm09, to clearly estimate the magnitude of neurological complications leading to permanent disability.

Dataset Information

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model.

Publications

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model.

Similar Datasets

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