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Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters.


ABSTRACT: Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models.

SUBMITTER: Yang HM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4807111 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters.

Yang Hyun Mo HM   Boldrini José Luiz JL   Fassoni Artur César AC   Freitas Luiz Fernando Souza LF   Gomez Miller Ceron MC   de Lima Karla Katerine Barboza KK   Andrade Valmir Roberto VR   Freitas André Ricardo Ribas AR  

PloS one 20160324 3


Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of o  ...[more]

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