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Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis.

ABSTRACT: Safe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly.We projected district-level Ebola virus disease incidence for the next 6 months, using a stochastic model fitted to data from Sierra Leone. We then simulated RCT and SWCT designs in trial populations comprising geographically distinct clusters at high risk, taking into account realistic logistical constraints, and both individual-level and cluster-level variations in risk. We assessed false-positive rates and power for parametric and non-parametric analyses of simulated trial data, across a range of vaccine efficacies and trial start dates.For an SWCT, regional variation in Ebola virus disease incidence trends produced increased false-positive rates (up to 0·15 at ?=0·05) under standard statistical models, but not when analysed by a permutation test, whereas analyses of RCTs remained statistically valid under all models. With the assumption of a 6-month trial starting on Feb 18, 2015, we estimate the power to detect a 90% effective vaccine to be between 49% and 89% for an RCT, and between 6% and 26% for an SWCT, depending on the Ebola virus disease incidence within the trial population. We estimate that a 1-month delay in trial initiation will reduce the power of the RCT by 20% and that of the SWCT by 49%.Spatiotemporal variation in infection risk undermines the statistical power of the SWCT. This variation also undercuts the SWCT's expected ethical advantages over the RCT, because an RCT, but not an SWCT, can prioritise vaccination of high-risk clusters.US National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

SUBMITTER: Bellan SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4815262 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis.

Bellan Steven E SE Pulliam Juliet R C JR Pearson Carl A B CA Champredon David D Fox Spencer J SJ Skrip Laura L Galvani Alison P AP Gambhir Manoj M Lopman Ben A BA Porco Travis C TC Meyers Lauren Ancel LA Dushoff Jonathan J

The Lancet. Infectious diseases 20150414 6

<h4>Background</h4>Safe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly.<h4>Methods</h4>We projected district-level Ebola virus disease incidence f ...[more]

PMID: 25886798

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Building trust and engaging the community are important for biomedical trials. This was core to the set up and delivery of the EBOVAC-Salone and PREVAC Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone during and following the 2014-2016 West African Ebola epidemic. Local community liaison teams (CLT) engaged with the community through public meetings, radio chat shows, and other activities, while a social science team (SST) assessed community members' and participants' perceptions and regularly updated the clinical team to adapt procedures to improve the acceptability and compliance of the trial. The objective of this study was to examine the community engagement (CE) program in these trials and to identify potential barriers and facilitators. METHODS:Fifteen CLT and SST members participated in in-depth interviews and 23 community members attended three focus groups to discuss the Ebola vaccine trials and their experiences and perspectives of the CE activities. RESULTS:A key aim of the CE program was to build trust between the community and the trial. Four main principles (the "four R's") evolved from the discussions with team members and the community that influenced this trust: reciprocity, relatability, relationships and respect. The CLT and SST ensured reciprocal communication between the trial team and the community. The CLT delivered key messages from the trial, whilst the SST completed ethnographic research in the field to uncover rumors and perceptions of the trial in the community. These ethnographic findings were shared with the CLT and addressed in targeted messaging to the community. Both the CLT and SST approached the communities in an egalitarian manner, by dressing modestly, speaking local dialects, and using relatable examples. Appreciation and understanding of the importance of interpersonal relationships and respect for the people, their customs, and traditions also played a large role in the CE program. CONCLUSION:These findings provide an in-depth understanding of how interdisciplinary community liaison and social science teams can work with a clinical team to strengthen trust. The four R's suggest the ways in which trust relations are central to CE and confidence in vaccine trials, and could offer an approach to CE in vaccine trials.

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Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis.

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Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis.

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