Dataset Information

Historic air pollution exposure and long-term mortality risks in England and Wales: prospective longitudinal cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Long-term air pollution exposure contributes to mortality but there are few studies examining effects of very long-term (>25?years) exposures.

Methods

This study investigated modelled air pollution concentrations at residence for 1971, 1981, 1991 (black smoke (BS) and SO2) and 2001 (PM10) in relation to mortality up to 2009 in 367,658 members of the longitudinal survey, a 1% sample of the English Census. Outcomes were all-cause (excluding accidents), cardiovascular (CV) and respiratory mortality.

Results

BS and SO2 exposures remained associated with mortality decades after exposure-BS exposure in 1971 was significantly associated with all-cause (OR 1.02 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.04)) and respiratory (OR 1.05 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.09)) mortality in 2002-2009 (ORs expressed per 10 ?g/m(3)). Largest effect sizes were seen for more recent exposures and for respiratory disease. PM10 exposure in 2001 was associated with all outcomes in 2002-2009 with stronger associations for respiratory (OR 1.22 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.44)) than CV mortality (OR 1.12 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.25)). Adjusting PM10 for past BS and SO2 exposures in 1971, 1981 and 1991 reduced the all-cause OR to 1.16 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.26) while CV and respiratory associations lost significance, suggesting confounding by past air pollution exposure, but there was no evidence for effect modification. Limitations include limited information on confounding by smoking and exposure misclassification of historic exposures.

Conclusions

This large national study suggests that air pollution exposure has long-term effects on mortality that persist decades after exposure, and that historic air pollution exposures influence current estimates of associations between air pollution and mortality.

SUBMITTER: Hansell A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4819629 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Historic air pollution exposure and long-term mortality risks in England and Wales: prospective longitudinal cohort study.

Hansell Anna A Ghosh Rebecca E RE Blangiardo Marta M Perkins Chloe C Vienneau Danielle D Goffe Kayoung K Briggs David D Gulliver John J

Thorax 20160208 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>Long-term air pollution exposure contributes to mortality but there are few studies examining effects of very long-term (>25 years) exposures.<h4>Methods</h4>This study investigated modelled air pollution concentrations at residence for 1971, 1981, 1991 (black smoke (BS) and SO2) and 2001 (PM10) in relation to mortality up to 2009 in 367,658 members of the longitudinal survey, a 1% sample of the English Census. Outcomes were all-cause (excluding accidents), cardiovascular (C ...[more]

PMID: 26856365

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Project description:BackgroundMany but not all studies suggest an association between air pollution exposure and infant mortality. We sought to investigate whether pollution exposure is differentially associated with all-cause neonatal or postneonatal mortality, or specific causes of infant mortality.Methods and findingsWe separately investigated the associations of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2) with all-cause infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, and with specific causes of infant deaths in 7,984,366 live births between 2001 and 2012 in England and Wales. Overall, 51.3% of the live births were male, and there were 36,485 infant deaths (25,110 neonatal deaths and 11,375 postneonatal deaths). We adjusted for the following major confounders: deprivation, birthweight, maternal age, sex, and multiple birth. Adjusted odds ratios (95% CI; p-value) for infant deaths were significantly increased for NO2, PM10, and SO2 (1.066 [1.027, 1.107; p = 0.001], 1.044 [1.007, 1.082; p = 0.017], and 1.190 [1.146, 1.235; p < 0.001], respectively) when highest and lowest pollutant quintiles were compared; however, neonatal mortality was significantly associated with SO2 (1.207 [1.154, 1.262; p < 0.001]) but not significantly associated with NO2 and PM10 (1.044 [0.998, 1.092; p = 0.059] and 1.008 [0.966, 1.052; p = 0.702], respectively). Postneonatal mortality was significantly associated with all pollutants: NO2, 1.108 (1.038, 1.182; p < 0.001); PM10, 1.117 (1.050, 1.188; p < 0.001); and SO2, 1.147 (1.076, 1.224; p < 0.001). Whilst all were similarly associated with endocrine causes of infant deaths (NO2, 2.167 [1.539, 3.052; p < 0.001]; PM10, 1.433 [1.066, 1.926; p = 0.017]; and SO2, 1.558 [1.147, 2.116; p = 0.005]), they were differentially associated with other specific causes: NO2 and PM10 were associated with an increase in infant deaths from congenital malformations of the nervous (NO2, 1.525 [1.179, 1.974; p = 0.001]; PM10, 1.457 [1.150, 1.846; p = 0.002]) and gastrointestinal systems (NO2, 1.214 [1.006, 1.466; p = 0.043]; PM10, 1.312 [1.096, 1.571; p = 0.003]), and NO2 was also associated with deaths from malformations of the respiratory system (1.306 [1.019, 1.675; p = 0.035]). In contrast, SO2 was associated with an increase in infant deaths from perinatal causes (1.214 [1.156, 1.275; p < 0.001]) and from malformations of the circulatory system (1.172 [1.011, 1.358; p = 0.035]). A limitation of this study was that we were not able to study associations of air pollution exposure and infant mortality during the different trimesters of pregnancy. In addition, we were not able to control for all confounding factors such as maternal smoking.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that NO2, PM10, and SO2 were differentially associated with all-cause mortality and with specific causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Socioeconomically disadvantaged populations often have higher exposures to particulate air pollution, which can be expected to contribute to differentials in life expectancy. We examined socioeconomic differentials in exposure and air pollution-related mortality relating to larger scale (5 km resolution) variations in background concentrations of selected pollutants across England. METHODS:Ozone and particulate matter (sub-divided into PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5-10, primary, nitrate and sulphate PM2.5) were simulated at 5 km horizontal resolution using an atmospheric chemistry transport model (EMEP4UK). Annual mean concentrations of these pollutants were assigned to all 1,202,578 residential postcodes in England, which were classified by urban-rural status and socioeconomic deprivation based on the income and employment domains of the 2010 English Index of Multiple Deprivation for the Lower-level Super Output Area of residence. We used life table methods to estimate PM2.5-attributable life years (LYs) lost in both relative and absolute terms. RESULTS:Concentrations of the most particulate fractions, but not of nitrate PM2.5 or ozone, were modestly higher in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation. Relationships between pollution level and socioeconomic deprivation were non-linear and varied by urban-rural status. The pattern of PM2.5 concentrations made only a small contribution to the steep socioeconomic gradient in LYs lost due to PM2.5 per 103 population, which primarily was driven by the steep socioeconomic gradient in underlying mortality rates. In rural areas, the absolute burden of air pollution-related LYs lost was lowest in the most deprived deciles. CONCLUSIONS:Air pollution shows modest socioeconomic patterning at 5 km resolution in England, but absolute attributable mortality burdens are strongly related to area-level deprivation because of underlying mortality rates. Measures that cause a general reduction in background concentrations of air pollution may modestly help narrow socioeconomic differences in health.

Dataset Information

Historic air pollution exposure and long-term mortality risks in England and Wales: prospective longitudinal cohort study.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Historic air pollution exposure and long-term mortality risks in England and Wales: prospective longitudinal cohort study.

Similar Datasets

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