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Virological factors that increase the transmissibility of emerging human viruses.

ABSTRACT: The early detection of pathogens with epidemic potential is of major importance to public health. Most emerging infections result in dead-end "spillover" events in which a pathogen is transmitted from an animal reservoir to a human but is unable to achieve the sustained human-to-human transmission necessary for a full-blown epidemic. It is therefore critical to determine why only some virus infections are efficiently transmitted among humans whereas others are not. We sought to determine which biological features best characterized those viruses that have achieved sustained human transmission. Accordingly, we compiled a database of 203 RNA and DNA human viruses and used an information theoretic approach to assess which of a set of key biological variables were the best predictors of human-to-human transmission. The variables analyzed were as follows: taxonomic classification; genome length, type, and segmentation; the presence or absence of an outer envelope; recombination frequency; duration of infection; host mortality; and whether or not a virus exhibits vector-borne transmission. This comparative analysis revealed multiple strong associations. In particular, we determined that viruses with low host mortality, that establish long-term chronic infections, and that are nonsegmented, nonenveloped, and, most importantly, not transmitted by vectors were more likely to be transmissible among humans. In contrast, variables including genome length, genome type, and recombination frequency had little predictive power. In sum, we have identified multiple biological features that seemingly determine the likelihood of interhuman viral transmissibility, in turn enabling general predictions of whether viruses of a particular type will successfully emerge in human populations.

SUBMITTER: Geoghegan JL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4839412 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Virological factors that increase the transmissibility of emerging human viruses.

Geoghegan Jemma L JL Senior Alistair M AM Di Giallonardo Francesca F Holmes Edward C EC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20160321 15

The early detection of pathogens with epidemic potential is of major importance to public health. Most emerging infections result in dead-end "spillover" events in which a pathogen is transmitted from an animal reservoir to a human but is unable to achieve the sustained human-to-human transmission necessary for a full-blown epidemic. It is therefore critical to determine why only some virus infections are efficiently transmitted among humans whereas others are not. We sought to determine which b ...[more]

PMID: 27001840

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Project description:BackgroundThe identification of mutations that confer unique properties to a pathogen, such as host range, is of fundamental importance in the fight against disease. This paper describes a novel method for identifying amino acid sites that distinguish specific sets of protein sequences, by comparative analysis of matched alignments. The use of mutual information to identify distinctive residues responsible for functional variants makes this approach highly suitable for analyzing large sets of sequences. To support mutual information analysis, we developed the AVANA software, which utilizes sequence annotations to select sets for comparison, according to user-specified criteria. The method presented was applied to an analysis of influenza A PB2 protein sequences, with the objective of identifying the components of adaptation to human-to-human transmission, and reconstructing the mutation history of these components.ResultsWe compared over 3,000 PB2 protein sequences of human-transmissible and avian isolates, to produce a catalogue of sites involved in adaptation to human-to-human transmission. This analysis identified 17 characteristic sites, five of which have been present in human-transmissible strains since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Sixteen of these sites are located in functional domains, suggesting they may play functional roles in host-range specificity. The catalogue of characteristic sites was used to derive sequence signatures from historical isolates. These signatures, arranged in chronological order, reveal an evolutionary timeline for the adaptation of the PB2 protein to human hosts.ConclusionBy providing the most complete elucidation to date of the functional components participating in PB2 protein adaptation to humans, this study demonstrates that mutual information is a powerful tool for comparative characterization of sequence sets. In addition to confirming previously reported findings, several novel characteristic sites within PB2 are reported. Sequence signatures generated using the characteristic sites catalogue characterize concisely the adaptation characteristics of individual isolates. Evolutionary timelines derived from signatures of early human influenza isolates suggest that characteristic variants emerged rapidly, and remained remarkably stable through subsequent pandemics. In addition, the signatures of human-infecting H5N1 isolates suggest that this avian subtype has low pandemic potential at present, although it presents more human adaptation components than most avian subtypes.

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Virological factors that increase the transmissibility of emerging human viruses.

Publications

Virological factors that increase the transmissibility of emerging human viruses.

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