Dataset Information

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

ABSTRACT: Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population. We evaluated the impact of targeted and untargeted vaccine delivery strategies in India--a country that bears more than 25% of global TB burden, and may be a potential early adopter of the vaccine. We collected TB notification data and conducted a demonstration study in the state of Gujarat to validate our estimates of heterogeneity in TB incidence. We then projected the impact of randomly vaccinating 8% of adults in a single mass campaign to a spatially targeted vaccination preferentially delivered to 80% of adults in the hotspots, with both strategies augmented by continuous adolescent vaccination. In consultation with vaccine developers, we considered a vaccine efficacy of 60%, and evaluated the population-level impact after 10 years of vaccination. Spatial heterogeneity in TB notification (per 100,000/year) was modest in Gujarat: 190 in the hotspots versus 125 in the remaining population. At this level of heterogeneity, the spatially targeted vaccination was projected to reduce TB incidence by 28% after 10 years, compared with a 24% reduction projected to achieve via untargeted vaccination--a 1.17-fold augmentation in the impact of vaccination by spatially targeting. The degree of the augmentation was robust to reasonable variation in natural history assumptions, but depended strongly on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and mixing between the hotspot and general population. Identifying high-incidence hotspots and quantifying spatial mixing patterns are critical to accurate estimation of the value of targeted intervention strategies.

SUBMITTER: Shrestha S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4843669 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

Shrestha Sourya S Chatterjee Susmita S Rao Krishna D KD Dowdy David W DW

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20160301 116

Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished t ...[more]

PMID: 27009179

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Project description:Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) in India recommends that all previously-treated TB (PT) patients are offered drug susceptibility testing (DST) at diagnosis, using rapid diagnostics and screened out for rifampicin resistance before being treated with standardized, eight-month, retreatment regimen. This is intended to improve the early diagnosis of rifampicin resistance and its appropriate management and improve the treatment outcomes among the rest of the patients. In this state-wide study from Gujarat, India, we assess proportion of PT patients underwent rapid DST at diagnosis and the impact of this intervention on their treatment outcomes.This is a retrospective cohort study involving review of electronic patient-records maintained routinely under RNTCP. All PT patients registered for treatment in Gujarat during January-June 2013 were included. Information on DST and treatment outcomes were extracted from 'presumptive DR-TB patient register' and TB treatment register respectively. We performed a multivariate analysis to assess if getting tested is independently associated with unfavourable outcomes (death, loss-to-follow-up, failure, transfer out).Of 5,829 PT patients, 5306(91%) were tested for drug susceptibility with rapid diagnostics. Overall, 71% (4,113) TB patients were successfully treated - 72% among tested versus 60% among non-tested. Patients who did not get tested at diagnosis had a 34% higher risk of unsuccessful outcomes as compared to those who got tested (aRR - 1.34; 95% CI 1.20-1.50) after adjusting for age, sex, HIV status and type of TB. Unfavourable outcomes (particularly failure and switched to category IV) were higher among INH-resistant patients (39%) as compared to INH-sensitive (29%).Offering DST at diagnosis improved the treatment outcomes among PT patients. However, even among tested, treatment outcomes remained suboptimal and were related to INH resistance and high loss-to-follow-up. These need to be addressed urgently for further progress.

Dataset Information

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

Publications

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

Similar Datasets

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