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Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

ABSTRACT: Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population. We evaluated the impact of targeted and untargeted vaccine delivery strategies in India--a country that bears more than 25% of global TB burden, and may be a potential early adopter of the vaccine. We collected TB notification data and conducted a demonstration study in the state of Gujarat to validate our estimates of heterogeneity in TB incidence. We then projected the impact of randomly vaccinating 8% of adults in a single mass campaign to a spatially targeted vaccination preferentially delivered to 80% of adults in the hotspots, with both strategies augmented by continuous adolescent vaccination. In consultation with vaccine developers, we considered a vaccine efficacy of 60%, and evaluated the population-level impact after 10 years of vaccination. Spatial heterogeneity in TB notification (per 100,000/year) was modest in Gujarat: 190 in the hotspots versus 125 in the remaining population. At this level of heterogeneity, the spatially targeted vaccination was projected to reduce TB incidence by 28% after 10 years, compared with a 24% reduction projected to achieve via untargeted vaccination--a 1.17-fold augmentation in the impact of vaccination by spatially targeting. The degree of the augmentation was robust to reasonable variation in natural history assumptions, but depended strongly on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and mixing between the hotspot and general population. Identifying high-incidence hotspots and quantifying spatial mixing patterns are critical to accurate estimation of the value of targeted intervention strategies.

SUBMITTER: Shrestha S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4843669 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

Shrestha Sourya S Chatterjee Susmita S Rao Krishna D KD Dowdy David W DW

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20160301 116

Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical 'hotspots' compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished t ...[more]

PMID: 27009179

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Project description:Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) in India recommends that all previously-treated TB (PT) patients are offered drug susceptibility testing (DST) at diagnosis, using rapid diagnostics and screened out for rifampicin resistance before being treated with standardized, eight-month, retreatment regimen. This is intended to improve the early diagnosis of rifampicin resistance and its appropriate management and improve the treatment outcomes among the rest of the patients. In this state-wide study from Gujarat, India, we assess proportion of PT patients underwent rapid DST at diagnosis and the impact of this intervention on their treatment outcomes.This is a retrospective cohort study involving review of electronic patient-records maintained routinely under RNTCP. All PT patients registered for treatment in Gujarat during January-June 2013 were included. Information on DST and treatment outcomes were extracted from 'presumptive DR-TB patient register' and TB treatment register respectively. We performed a multivariate analysis to assess if getting tested is independently associated with unfavourable outcomes (death, loss-to-follow-up, failure, transfer out).Of 5,829 PT patients, 5306(91%) were tested for drug susceptibility with rapid diagnostics. Overall, 71% (4,113) TB patients were successfully treated - 72% among tested versus 60% among non-tested. Patients who did not get tested at diagnosis had a 34% higher risk of unsuccessful outcomes as compared to those who got tested (aRR - 1.34; 95% CI 1.20-1.50) after adjusting for age, sex, HIV status and type of TB. Unfavourable outcomes (particularly failure and switched to category IV) were higher among INH-resistant patients (39%) as compared to INH-sensitive (29%).Offering DST at diagnosis improved the treatment outcomes among PT patients. However, even among tested, treatment outcomes remained suboptimal and were related to INH resistance and high loss-to-follow-up. These need to be addressed urgently for further progress.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions (TIs) have been a major strategy for HIV prevention in India. We evaluated the impact of TIs on HIV prevalence in high HIV prevalence southern states (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra). METHODS: A quasi-experimental approach was used to retrospectively compare changes in HIV prevalence according to the intensity of targeted intervention implementation. Condom gap (number of condoms required minus condoms supplied by TIs) was used as an indicator of TI intensity. Annual average number of commercial sex acts per female sex worker (FSW) reported in Behavioral Surveillance Survey was multiplied by the estimated number of FSWs in each district to calculate annual requirement of condoms in the district. Data of condoms supplied by TIs from 1995 to 2008 was obtained from program records. Districts in each state were ranked into quartiles based on the TI intensity. Primary data of HIV Sentinel Surveillance was analyzed to calculate HIV prevalence reductions in each successive year taking 2001 as reference year according to the quartiles of TI intensity districts using generalized linear model with logit link and binomial distribution after adjusting for age, education, and place of residence (urban or rural). RESULTS: In the high HIV prevalence southern states, the number of TI projects for FSWs increased from 5 to 310 between 1995 and 2008. In high TI intensity quartile districts (n = 30), 186 condoms per FSW/year were distributed through TIs as compared to 45 condoms/FSW/year in the low TI intensity districts (n = 29). Behavioral surveillance indicated significant rise in condom use from 2001 to 2009. Among FSWs consistent condom use with last paying clients increased from 58.6% to 83.7% (p < 0.001), and among men of reproductive age, the condom use during sex with non-regular partner increased from 51.7% to 68.6% (p < 0.001). A significant decline in HIV and syphilis prevalence has occurred in high prevalence southern states among FSWs and young antenatal women. Among young (15-24 years) antenatal clinic attendees significant decline was observed in HIV prevalence from 2001 to 2008 (OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.28-0.62) in high TI intensity districts whereas in low TI intensity districts the change was not significant (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.67-1.5). CONCLUSION: Targeted interventions are associated with HIV prevalence decline.

Project description:BackgroundAs infectious diseases approach global elimination targets, spatial targeting is increasingly important to identify community hotspots of transmission and effectively target interventions. We aimed to synthesise relevant evidence to define best practice approaches and identify policy and research gaps.ObjectiveTo systematically appraise evidence for the effectiveness of spatially targeted community public health interventions for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), leprosy and malaria.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesWe searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews between 1 January 1993 and 22 March 2021.Study selectionThe studies had to include HIV or TB or leprosy or malaria and spatial hotspot definition, and community interventions.Data extraction and synthesisA data extraction tool was used. For each study, we summarised approaches to identifying hotpots, intervention design and effectiveness of the intervention.ResultsTen studies, including one cluster randomised trial and nine with alternative designs (before-after, comparator area), satisfied our inclusion criteria. Spatially targeted interventions for HIV (one USA study), TB (three USA) and leprosy (two Brazil, one Federated States of Micronesia) each used household location and disease density to define hotspots followed by community-based screening. Malaria studies (one each from India, Indonesia and Kenya) used household location and disease density for hotspot identification followed by complex interventions typically combining community screening, larviciding of stagnant water bodies, indoor residual spraying and mass drug administration. Evidence of effect was mixed.ConclusionsStudies investigating spatially targeted interventions were few in number, and mostly underpowered or otherwise limited methodologically, affecting interpretation of intervention impact. Applying advanced epidemiological methodologies supporting more robust hotspot identification and larger or more intensive interventions would strengthen the evidence-base for this increasingly important approach.Prospero registration numberCRD42019130133.

Dataset Information

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

Publications

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.

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