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Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

ABSTRACT: Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade.

SUBMITTER: Moslonka-Lefebvre M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4843675 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Moslonka-Lefebvre Mathieu M Gilligan Christopher A CA Monod Hervé H Belloc Catherine C Ezanno Pauline P Filipe João A N JA Vergu Elisabeta E

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20160301 116

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in ...[more]

PMID: 26984191

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Project description:BackgroundTrade in live animals can contribute to the introduction of exotic diseases, the maintenance and spread endemic diseases. Annually millions of animals are moved across Europe for the purposes of breeding, fattening and slaughter. Data on the number of animals moved were obtained from the Directorate General Sanco (DG Sanco) for 2011. These were converted to livestock units to enable direct comparison across species and their movements were mapped, used to calculate the indegrees and outdegrees of 27 European countries and the density and transitivity of movements within Europe. This provided the opportunity to discuss surveillance of European livestock movement taking into account stopping points en-route.ResultsHigh density and transitivity of movement for registered equines, breeding and fattening cattle, breeding poultry and pigs for breeding, fattening and slaughter indicates that hazards have the potential to spread quickly within these populations. This is of concern to highly connected countries particularly those where imported animals constitute a large proportion of their national livestock populations, and have a high indegree. The transport of poultry (older than 72 hours) and unweaned animals would require more rest breaks than the movement of weaned animals, which may provide more opportunities for disease transmission. Transitivity is greatest for animals transported for breeding purposes with cattle, pigs and poultry having values of over 50%.ConclusionsThis paper demonstrated that some species (pigs and poultry) are traded much more frequently and at a larger scale than species such as goats. Some countries are more vulnerable than others due to importing animals from many countries, having imported animals requiring rest-breaks and importing large proportions of their national herd or flock. Such knowledge about the vulnerability of different livestock systems related to trade movements can be used to inform the design of animal health surveillance systems to facilitate the trade in animals between European member states.

Dataset Information

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Publications

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Similar Datasets

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