Dataset Information

Predicting Inpatient Readmission and Outpatient Admission in Elderly: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Recognizing potentially avoidable hospital readmission and admissions are important health care quality issues. We develop prediction models for inpatient readmission and outpatient admission to hospitals for older adults In the retrospective cohort study with 2 million sampling file of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, older adults (aged ?65?y/o) with a first admission in 2008 were enrolled in the inpatient cohort (N?=?39,156). The outpatient cohort included subjects who had ?1 outpatient visit in 2008 (N?=?178,286). Each cohort was split into derivation (3/4) and validation (1/4) data set. Primary outcome of the inpatient cohort: 30-day readmission from the date of discharge. The outpatient cohort included hospital admissions within the 1-year follow-up period. Candidate risk factors include demographics, comorbidities, and previous health care utilizations. Series of logistic regression models were applied with area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs) to identify the best model. Roughly 1 of 7 (14.6%) of the inpatients was readmitted within 30 days, and 1 of 5 (19.1%) of the outpatient cohort was admitted within 1 year. Age, education, use of home health care, and selected comorbidities (e.g., cancer with metastasis) were included in the final model. The AUC of the inpatient readmission model was 0.655 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.646-0.664) and outpatient admission model was 0.642 (95% CI 0.639-0.646). Predictive performance was maintained in both validation data sets. The goodness-to-fit model demonstrated good calibration in both groups. We developed and validated practical clinical prediction models for inpatient readmission and outpatient admissions for general older adults with indicators easily obtained from an administrative data set.

SUBMITTER: Lin KP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4845859 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Inpatient Readmission and Outpatient Admission in Elderly: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Lin Kun-Pei KP Chen Pei-Chun PC Huang Ling-Ya LY Mao Hsiu-Chen HC Chan Ding-Cheng Derrick DD

Medicine 20160401 16

Recognizing potentially avoidable hospital readmission and admissions are important health care quality issues. We develop prediction models for inpatient readmission and outpatient admission to hospitals for older adults In the retrospective cohort study with 2 million sampling file of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, older adults (aged ≥65 y/o) with a first admission in 2008 were enrolled in the inpatient cohort (N = 39,156). The outpatient cohort included subjects wh ...[more]

PMID: 27100455

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Project description:UnlabelledBackgroundLittle is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality.MethodsThis is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths.Main outcomeprospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models.ResultsBiomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects.ConclusionsThis study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the continued medical focus on drugs for BP and cholesterol, high levels of BP and cholesterol have little predictive value of mortality in this elderly population.

Project description:Acute cholecystitis is a life-threatening emergency in elderly patients. This population-based cohort study aimed to evaluate the commonly used management strategies for elderly patients with acute cholecystitis as well as resulting mortality and re-admission rates.Data from all consecutive elderly patients (≥ 80 years) admitted with acute cholecystitis in England from 1997 to 2012 were captured from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. Influence of management strategies upon mortality was analyzed with adjustment for patient demographics and treatment year.47,500 elderly patients were admitted as an emergency with acute cholecystitis. On the index emergency admission the majority of patients (n = 42,620, 89.7%) received conservative treatment, 3539 (7.5%) had cholecystectomy, and 1341 (2.8%) underwent cholecystostomy. In the short term, 30-day mortality was increased in the emergency cholecystectomy group (11.6%) compared to those managed conservatively (9.9%) (p < 0.001). This was offset by the long-term benefits of cholecystectomy with a reduced 1-year mortality [20.8 vs. 27.1% for those managed conservatively (p < 0.001)]. Management with percutaneous cholecystostomy had increased 30-day and 1-year mortality (13.4 and 35.0%, respectively). The annual proportion of cholecystectomies performed laparoscopically increased from 27% in 2006 to 59% in 2012. Within the cholecystectomy group, laparoscopic approach was an independent predictor of reduced 30-day mortality (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.10-0.25). Following conservative management, there were 16,088 admissions with further cholecystitis. Only 11% of patients initially managed conservatively or with cholecystostomy received subsequent cholecystectomy.Acute cholecystitis is associated with significant mortality in elderly patients. Potential benefits of emergency cholecystectomy in selected elderly patients include reduced rate of readmissions and 1-year mortality. Laparoscopic approach for emergency cholecystectomy was associated with an 84% relative risk reduction in 30-day mortality compared to open surgery.

Dataset Information

Predicting Inpatient Readmission and Outpatient Admission in Elderly: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Publications

Predicting Inpatient Readmission and Outpatient Admission in Elderly: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

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