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Do single-arm trials have a role in drug development plans incorporating randomised trials?

ABSTRACT: Often, single-arm trials are used in phase II to gather the first evidence of an oncological drug's efficacy, with drug activity determined through tumour response using the RECIST criterion. Provided the null hypothesis of 'insufficient drug activity' is rejected, the next step could be a randomised two-arm trial. However, single-arm trials may provide a biased treatment effect because of patient selection, and thus, this development plan may not be an efficient use of resources. Therefore, we compare the performance of development plans consisting of single-arm trials followed by randomised two-arm trials with stand-alone single-stage or group sequential randomised two-arm trials. Through this, we are able to investigate the utility of single-arm trials and determine the most efficient drug development plans, setting our work in the context of a published single-arm non-small-cell lung cancer trial. Reference priors, reflecting the opinions of 'sceptical' and 'enthusiastic' investigators, are used to quantify and guide the suitability of single-arm trials in this setting. We observe that the explored development plans incorporating single-arm trials are often non-optimal. Moreover, even the most pessimistic reference priors have a considerable probability in favour of alternative plans. Analysis suggests expected sample size savings of up to 25% could have been made, and the issues associated with single-arm trials avoided, for the non-small-cell lung cancer treatment through direct progression to a group sequential randomised two-arm trial. Careful consideration should thus be given to the use of single-arm trials in oncological drug development when a randomised trial will follow.

SUBMITTER: Grayling MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4855632 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar-Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Do single-arm trials have a role in drug development plans incorporating randomised trials?

Grayling Michael J MJ Mander Adrian P AP

Pharmaceutical statistics 20151126 2

Often, single-arm trials are used in phase II to gather the first evidence of an oncological drug's efficacy, with drug activity determined through tumour response using the RECIST criterion. Provided the null hypothesis of 'insufficient drug activity' is rejected, the next step could be a randomised two-arm trial. However, single-arm trials may provide a biased treatment effect because of patient selection, and thus, this development plan may not be an efficient use of resources. Therefore, we ...[more]

PMID: 26609689

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Project description:BackgroundIncreasingly in network meta-analysis (NMA), there is a need to incorporate non-randomised evidence to estimate relative treatment effects, and in particular in cases with limited randomised evidence, sometimes resulting in disconnected networks of treatments. When combining different sources of data, complex NMA methods are required to address issues associated with participant selection bias, incorporating single-arm trials (SATs), and synthesising a mixture of individual participant data (IPD) and aggregate data (AD). We develop NMA methods which synthesise data from SATs and randomised controlled trials (RCTs), using a mixture of IPD and AD, for a dichotomous outcome.MethodsWe propose methods under both contrast-based (CB) and arm-based (AB) parametrisations, and extend the methods to allow for both within- and across-trial adjustments for covariate effects. To illustrate the methods, we use an applied example investigating the effectiveness of biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We applied the methods to a dataset obtained from a literature review consisting of 14 RCTs and an artificial dataset consisting of IPD from two SATs and AD from 12 RCTs, where the artificial dataset was created by removing the control arms from the only two trials assessing tocilizumab in the original dataset.ResultsWithout adjustment for covariates, the CB method with independent baseline response parameters (CBunadjInd) underestimated the effectiveness of tocilizumab when applied to the artificial dataset compared to the original dataset, albeit with significant overlap in posterior distributions for treatment effect parameters. The CB method with exchangeable baseline response parameters produced effectiveness estimates in agreement with CBunadjInd, when the predicted baseline response estimates were similar to the observed baseline response. After adjustment for RA duration, there was a reduction in across-trial heterogeneity in baseline response but little change in treatment effect estimates.ConclusionsOur findings suggest incorporating SATs in NMA may be useful in some situations where a treatment is disconnected from a network of comparator treatments, due to a lack of comparative evidence, to estimate relative treatment effects. The reliability of effect estimates based on data from SATs may depend on adjustment for covariate effects, although further research is required to understand this in more detail.

Project description:BackgroundDrug development for neurodegenerative disorders (NDDs) is a long, complex, and expensive enterprise. Methods to optimize drug development for NDDs are needed. Basket trials have been widely used in oncology and have been promoted by the Food and Drug Administration as a means of enhancing the efficiency of drug development.DiscussionWe reviewed clinical trials for NDDs registered on clinicaltrials.gov in the past 10 years. We identified 59 basket trials assessing the impact of treatment on more than one NDD in the trial. Forty-one of the trials were for 25 agents addressing symptoms of NDD such as motor impairment, hypotension, or psychosis. Eighteen of the trials assessed 14 disease-modifying therapies; the principal targets were mitochondrial function, tau biology, or alpha-synuclein aggregation. Basket trials are most common in phase 2 but have been conducted in phase 1, phase 3, and phase 4. The duration and size of the basket trials are highly variable depending on their developmental phase and the intent of the trial. Parkinson's disease was the most common disorder included in basket trials of symptomatic agents, and Alzheimer's disease was the most common disorder included in basket trials of disease-modifying therapies. Most of the basket trials of symptomatic agents were sponsored by pharmaceutical companies (29 of 41 trials); similarly, most of the basket trials investigating DMTs in basket trials were sponsored by the biopharmaceutical industry (11/17 trials).ConclusionsBasket trials may increase drug development efficiency by reducing redundancy in trial implementation, enhancing recruitment, sharing placebo groups, and using biomarkers relevant to the mechanism of action of the treatment across NDDs. There have been relatively few basket trials including multiple NDDs in the same trial conducted over the past 10 years. The use of the basket trial strategy may represent an opportunity to increase the efficiency of development programs for agents to treat NDDs.

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Do single-arm trials have a role in drug development plans incorporating randomised trials?

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Do single-arm trials have a role in drug development plans incorporating randomised trials?

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