Dataset Information

Fine-Scale Exposure to Allergenic Pollen in the Urban Environment: Evaluation of Land Use Regression Approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Despite the recent developments in physically and chemically based analysis of atmospheric particles, no models exist for resolving the spatial variability of pollen concentration at urban scale.

Objectives

We developed a land use regression (LUR) approach for predicting spatial fine-scale allergenic pollen concentrations in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland, and evaluated the performance of the models against available empirical data.

Methods

We used grass pollen data monitored at 16 sites in an urban area during the peak pollen season and geospatial environmental data. The main statistical method was generalized linear model (GLM).

Results

GLM-based LURs explained 79% of the spatial variation in the grass pollen data based on all samples, and 47% of the variation when samples from two sites with very high concentrations were excluded. In model evaluation, prediction errors ranged from 6% to 26% of the observed range of grass pollen concentrations. Our findings support the use of geospatial data-based statistical models to predict the spatial variation of allergenic grass pollen concentrations at intra-urban scales. A remote sensing-based vegetation index was the strongest predictor of pollen concentrations for exposure assessments at local scales.

Conclusions

The LUR approach provides new opportunities to estimate the relations between environmental determinants and allergenic pollen concentration in human-modified environments at fine spatial scales. This approach could potentially be applied to estimate retrospectively pollen concentrations to be used for long-term exposure assessments.

Citation

Hjort J, Hugg TT, Antikainen H, Rusanen J, Sofiev M, Kukkonen J, Jaakkola MS, Jaakkola JJ. 2016. Fine-scale exposure to allergenic pollen in the urban environment: evaluation of land use regression approach. Environ Health Perspect 124:619-626;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509761.

SUBMITTER: Hjort J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4858385 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Fine-Scale Exposure to Allergenic Pollen in the Urban Environment: Evaluation of Land Use Regression Approach.

Hjort Jan J Hugg Timo T TT Antikainen Harri H Rusanen Jarmo J Sofiev Mikhail M Kukkonen Jaakko J Jaakkola Maritta S MS Jaakkola Jouni J K JJ

Environmental health perspectives 20151009 5

<h4>Background</h4>Despite the recent developments in physically and chemically based analysis of atmospheric particles, no models exist for resolving the spatial variability of pollen concentration at urban scale.<h4>Objectives</h4>We developed a land use regression (LUR) approach for predicting spatial fine-scale allergenic pollen concentrations in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland, and evaluated the performance of the models against available empirical data.<h4>Methods</h4>We used grass ...[more]

PMID: 26452296

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough malaria transmission has experienced an overall decline in sub-Saharan Africa, urban malaria is now considered an emerging health issue due to rapid and uncontrolled urbanization and the adaptation of vectors to urban environments. Fine-scale hazard and exposure maps are required to support evidence-based policies and targeted interventions, but data-driven predictive spatial modelling is hindered by gaps in epidemiological and entomological data. A knowledge-based geospatial framework is proposed for mapping the heterogeneity of urban malaria hazard and exposure under data scarcity. It builds on proven geospatial methods, implements open-source algorithms, and relies heavily on vector ecology knowledge and the involvement of local experts.MethodsA workflow for producing fine-scale maps was systematized, and most processing steps were automated. The method was evaluated through its application to the metropolitan area of Dakar, Senegal, where urban transmission has long been confirmed. Urban malaria exposure was defined as the contact risk between adult Anopheles vectors (the hazard) and urban population and accounted for socioeconomic vulnerability by including the dimension of urban deprivation that is reflected in the morphology of the built-up fabric. Larval habitat suitability was mapped through a deductive geospatial approach involving the participation of experts with a strong background in vector ecology and validated with existing geolocated entomological data. Adult vector habitat suitability was derived through a similar process, based on dispersal from suitable breeding site locations. The resulting hazard map was combined with a population density map to generate a gridded urban malaria exposure map at a spatial resolution of 100 m.ResultsThe identification of key criteria influencing vector habitat suitability, their translation into geospatial layers, and the assessment of their relative importance are major outcomes of the study that can serve as a basis for replication in other sub-Saharan African cities. Quantitative validation of the larval habitat suitability map demonstrates the reliable performance of the deductive approach, and the added value of including local vector ecology experts in the process. The patterns displayed in the hazard and exposure maps reflect the high degree of heterogeneity that exists throughout the city of Dakar and its suburbs, due not only to the influence of environmental factors, but also to urban deprivation.ConclusionsThis study is an effort to bring geospatial research output closer to effective support tools for local stakeholders and decision makers. Its major contributions are the identification of a broad set of criteria related to vector ecology and the systematization of the workflow for producing fine-scale maps. In a context of epidemiological and entomological data scarcity, vector ecology knowledge is key for mapping urban malaria exposure. An application of the framework to Dakar showed its potential in this regard. Fine-grained heterogeneity was revealed by the output maps, and besides the influence of environmental factors, the strong links between urban malaria and deprivation were also highlighted.

Project description:Temperature gradients in cities can cause inter-neighborhood differences in the timing of pollen release. However, most epidemiological studies examining allergenic pollen utilize daily measurements from a single pollen monitoring station with the implicit assumption that the measured time series of airborne pollen concentrations applies across the study areas, and that the temporal mismatch between concentrations at the counting station and elsewhere in the study area is negligible. This assumption is tested by quantifying temperature using satellite imagery, observing flowering times of oak (Quercus) and mulberry (Morus) trees at multiple sites, and collecting airborne pollen. Epidemiological studies of allergenic pollen are reviewed and temperatures within their study areas are quantified. In this one-year study, peak oak flowering time was well explained by average February nighttime temperature (R2 = 0.94), which varied by 6 °C across Detroit. This relationship was used to predict flowering phenology across the study region. Peak flowering ranged from April 20-May 13 and predicted a substantial portion of relative airborne oak pollen concentrations in Detroit (R2 = 0.46) and at the regional pollen monitoring station (R2 = 0.61). The regional pollen monitoring station was located in a cooler outlying area where peak flowering occurred around May 12 and peak pollen concentrations were measured on May 15. This provides evidence that the timing of pollen release varies substantially within a metropolitan area and challenges the assumption that pollen measurements at a single location are representative of an entire city. Across the epidemiological studies, 50% of study areas were not within 1 °C (equal to a lag or lead of 4 days in flowering time) of temperatures at the pollen measurement location. Epidemiological studies using a single pollen station as a proxy for pollen concentrations are prone to significant measurement error if the study area is climatically variable.

Dataset Information

Fine-Scale Exposure to Allergenic Pollen in the Urban Environment: Evaluation of Land Use Regression Approach.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Citation

Publications

Fine-Scale Exposure to Allergenic Pollen in the Urban Environment: Evaluation of Land Use Regression Approach.

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