Dataset Information

The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach.

ABSTRACT: The epidemiology of dengue fever is characterized by highly seasonal, multi-annual fluctuations, and the irregular circulation of its four serotypes. It is believed that this behaviour arises from the interplay between environmental drivers and serotype interactions. The exact mechanism, however, is uncertain. Constraining mathematical models to patterns characteristic to dengue epidemiology offers a means for detecting such mechanisms. Here, we used a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) strategy to fit and assess a range of dengue models, driven by combinations of temporary cross protective-immunity, cross-enhancement, and seasonal forcing, on their ability to capture the main characteristics of dengue dynamics. We show that all proposed models reproduce the observed dengue patterns across some part of the parameter space. Which model best supports the dengue dynamics is determined by the level of seasonal forcing. Further, when tertiary and quaternary infections are allowed, the inclusion of temporary cross-immunity alone is strongly supported, but the addition of cross-enhancement markedly reduces the parameter range at which dengue dynamics are produced, irrespective of the strength of seasonal forcing. The implication of these structural uncertainties on predicted vulnerability to control is also discussed. With ever expanding spread of dengue, greater understanding of dengue dynamics and control efforts (e.g. a near-future vaccine introduction) has become critically important. This study highlights the capacity of multi-level pattern-matching modelling approaches to offer an analytic tool for deeper insights into dengue epidemiology and control.

SUBMITTER: Ten Bosch QA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4861330 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach.

Ten Bosch Quirine A QA Singh Brajendra K BK Hassan Muhammad R A MR Chadee Dave D DD Michael Edwin E

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20160509 5

The epidemiology of dengue fever is characterized by highly seasonal, multi-annual fluctuations, and the irregular circulation of its four serotypes. It is believed that this behaviour arises from the interplay between environmental drivers and serotype interactions. The exact mechanism, however, is uncertain. Constraining mathematical models to patterns characteristic to dengue epidemiology offers a means for detecting such mechanisms. Here, we used a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) strategy t ...[more]

PMID: 27159023

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Project description:BackgroundBecause no dengue vaccine or antiviral therapy is commercially available, controlling the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, is currently the only means to prevent dengue outbreaks. Traditional models of Ae. aegypti assume that population dynamics are regulated by density-dependent larval competition for food and little affected by oviposition behavior. Due to direct impacts on offspring survival and development, however, mosquito choice in oviposition site can have important consequences for population regulation that should be taken into account when designing vector control programs.Methodology/principal findingsWe examined oviposition patterns by Ae. aegypti among 591 naturally occurring containers and a set of experimental containers in Iquitos, Peru. Using larval starvation bioassays as an indirect measure of container food content, we assessed whether females select containers with the most food for their offspring. Our data indicate that choice of egg-laying site is influenced by conspecific larvae and pupae, container fill method, container size, lid, and sun exposure. Although larval food positively influenced oviposition, our results did not support the hypothesis that females act primarily to maximize food for larvae. Females were most strongly attracted to sites containing immature conspecifics, even when potential competitors for their progeny were present in abundance.Conclusion/significanceDue to strong conspecific attraction, egg-laying behavior may contribute more to regulating Ae. aegypti populations than previously thought. If highly infested containers are targeted for removal or larvicide application, females that would have preferentially oviposited in those sites may instead distribute their eggs among other suitable, previously unoccupied containers. Strategies that kill mosquitoes late in their development (i.e., insect growth regulators that kill pupae rather than larvae) will enhance vector control by creating "egg sinks," treated sites that exploit conspecific attraction of ovipositing females, but reduce emergence of adult mosquitoes via density-dependent larval competition and late acting insecticide.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe form of dengue, characterized by bleeding and plasma leakage. A number of DHF risk factors had been suggested. However, these risk factors may not be generalized to all populations and epidemics for screening and clinical management of patients at risk of developing DHF. This study explored demographic and comorbidity risk factors for DHF in adult dengue epidemics in Singapore in year 2006 (predominantly serotype 1) and in year 2007-2008 (predominantly serotype 2). METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted with 149 DHF and 326 dengue fever (DF) patients from year 2006, and 669 DHF and 1,141 DF patients from year 2007-2008. Demographic and reported comorbidity data were collected from patients previously. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between DHF and demographic and co-morbidities for year 2006 and year 2007-2008, respectively. RESULTS: Only Chinese (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]?=?1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-3.56) was independently associated with DHF in year 2006. In contrast, age groups of 30-39 years (AOR?=?1.41; 95% CI:1.09-1.81), 40-49 years (AOR?=?1.34; 95% CI:1.09-1.81), female (AOR?=?1.57; 95% CI:1.28-1.94), Chinese (AOR?=?1.67; 95% CI:1.24-2.24), diabetes (AOR?=?1.78; 95% CI:1.06-2.97), and diabetes with hypertension (AOR?=?2.16; 95%CI:1.18-3.96) were independently associated with DHF in year 2007-2008. Hypertension was proposed to have effect modification on the risk of DHF outcome in dengue patients with diabetes. Chinese who had diabetes with hypertension had 2.1 (95% CI:1.07-4.12) times higher risk of DHF compared with Chinese who had no diabetes and no hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Adult dengue patients in Singapore who were 30-49 years, Chinese, female, had diabetes or diabetes with hypertension were at greater risk of developing DHF during epidemic of predominantly serotype 2. These risk factors can be used to guide triaging of patients who require closer clinical monitoring and early hospitalization in Singapore, when confirmed in more studies.

Dataset Information

The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach.

Publications

The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach.

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