Dataset Information

Comparison of Prediction Models for Lynch Syndrome Among Individuals With Colorectal Cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent guidelines recommend the Lynch Syndrome prediction models MMRPredict, MMRPro, and PREMM1,2,6 for the identification of MMR gene mutation carriers. We compared the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of these prediction models to identify mutation carriers.

Methods

Pedigree data from CRC patients in 11 North American, European, and Australian cohorts (6 clinic- and 5 population-based sites) were used to calculate predicted probabilities of pathogenic MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 gene mutations by each model and gene-specific predictions by MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6. We examined discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration with observed to expected (O/E) ratio, and clinical usefulness using decision curve analysis to select patients for further evaluation. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

Mutations were detected in 539 of 2304 (23%) individuals from the clinic-based cohorts (237 MLH1, 251 MSH2, 51 MSH6) and 150 of 3451 (4.4%) individuals from the population-based cohorts (47 MLH1, 71 MSH2, 32 MSH6). Discrimination was similar for clinic- and population-based cohorts: AUCs of 0.76 vs 0.77 for MMRPredict, 0.82 vs 0.85 for MMRPro, and 0.85 vs 0.88 for PREMM1,2,6. For clinic- and population-based cohorts, O/E deviated from 1 for MMRPredict (0.38 and 0.31, respectively) and MMRPro (0.62 and 0.36) but were more satisfactory for PREMM1,2,6 (1.0 and 0.70). MMRPro or PREMM1,2,6 predictions were clinically useful at thresholds of 5% or greater and in particular at greater than 15%.

Conclusions

MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6 can well be used to select CRC patients from genetics clinics or population-based settings for tumor and/or germline testing at a 5% or higher risk. If no MMR deficiency is detected and risk exceeds 15%, we suggest considering additional genetic etiologies for the cause of cancer in the family.

SUBMITTER: Kastrinos F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4862416 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Comparison of Prediction Models for Lynch Syndrome Among Individuals With Colorectal Cancer.

Kastrinos Fay F Ojha Rohit P RP Leenen Celine C Alvero Carmelita C Mercado Rowena C RC Balmaña Judith J Valenzuela Irene I Balaguer Francesc F Green Roger R Lindor Noralane M NM Thibodeau Stephen N SN Newcomb Polly P Win Aung Ko AK Jenkins Mark M Buchanan Daniel D DD Bertario Lucio L Sala Paola P Hampel Heather H Syngal Sapna S Steyerberg Ewout W EW

Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20151118 2

<h4>Background</h4>Recent guidelines recommend the Lynch Syndrome prediction models MMRPredict, MMRPro, and PREMM1,2,6 for the identification of MMR gene mutation carriers. We compared the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of these prediction models to identify mutation carriers.<h4>Methods</h4>Pedigree data from CRC patients in 11 North American, European, and Australian cohorts (6 clinic- and 5 population-based sites) were used to calculate predicted probabilities of pathogenic ML ...[more]

PMID: 26582061

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Individuals with pathogenic germline variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes are at increased risk of developing colorectal, endometrial and other cancers (Lynch syndrome, LS). While previous studies have extensively described cancer risks in LS, cancer risks in individuals from families without detectable MMR gene defects despite MMR deficiency (Lynch-like syndrome, LLS), and in individuals from families fulfilling the Amsterdam-II criteria without any signs of MMR deficiency (familial colorectal cancer type X, FCCX) are less well studied. The aim of this prospective study was to characterise the risk for different cancer types in LS, LLS, and FCCX, and to compare these with the cancer risks in the general population. METHODS:Data was taken from the registry of the German Consortium for Familial Intestinal Cancer, where individuals were followed up prospectively within the framework of an intensified surveillance programme at recommended annual examination intervals. A total of 1120 LS, 594 LLS, and 116 FCCX individuals were analysed. From this total sample, eight different cohorts were defined, in which age-dependent cumulative risks and standardised incidence ratios were calculated regarding the first incident occurrence of any, colorectal, stomach, small bowel, urothelial, female breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer, separately for LS, LLS, and FCCX. RESULTS:The number of individuals at risk for first incident cancer ranged from 322 to 1102 in LS, 120 to 586 in LLS, and 40 to 116 in FCCX, depending on the cancer type of interest. For most cancer types, higher risks were observed in LS compared to LLS, FCCX, and the general population. Risks for any, colorectal, stomach, urothelial, and endometrial cancer were significantly higher in LLS compared to the general population. No significantly increased risks could be detected in FCCX compared to LLS patients, and the general population. Colorectal and endometrial cancer risks tended to be higher in LLS than in FCCX. CONCLUSIONS:The characterisation of cancer risks in patients with LLS and FCCX is important to develop appropriate surveillance programmes for these specific intermediate risk groups. Larger prospective studies are needed to obtain more precise risk estimates.

Project description:Lynch syndrome is the most common form of hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) and is caused by germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Identification of gene carriers currently relies on germline analysis in patients with MMR-deficient tumors, but criteria to select individuals in whom tumor MMR testing should be performed are unclear.To establish a highly sensitive and efficient strategy for the identification of MMR gene mutation carriers among CRC probands.Pooled-data analysis of 4 large cohorts of newly diagnosed CRC probands recruited between 1994 and 2010 (n = 10,206) from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, the EPICOLON project, the Ohio State University, and the University of Helsinki examining personal, tumor-related, and family characteristics, as well as microsatellite instability, tumor MMR immunostaining, and germline MMR mutational status data.Performance characteristics of selected strategies (Bethesda guidelines, Jerusalem recommendations, and those derived from a bivariate/multivariate analysis of variables associated with Lynch syndrome) were compared with tumor MMR testing of all CRC patients (universal screening).Of 10,206 informative, unrelated CRC probands, 312 (3.1%) were MMR gene mutation carriers. In the population-based cohorts (n = 3671 probands), the universal screening approach (sensitivity, 100%; 95% CI, 99.3%-100%; specificity, 93.0%; 95% CI, 92.0%-93.7%; diagnostic yield, 2.2%; 95% CI, 1.7%-2.7%) was superior to the use of Bethesda guidelines (sensitivity, 87.8%; 95% CI, 78.9%-93.2%; specificity, 97.5%; 95% CI, 96.9%-98.0%; diagnostic yield, 2.0%; 95% CI, 1.5%-2.4%; P < .001), Jerusalem recommendations (sensitivity, 85.4%; 95% CI, 77.1%-93.6%; specificity, 96.7%; 95% CI, 96.0%-97.2%; diagnostic yield, 1.9%; 95% CI, 1.4%-2.3%; P < .001), and a selective strategy based on tumor MMR testing of cases with CRC diagnosed at age 70 years or younger and in older patients fulfilling the Bethesda guidelines (sensitivity, 95.1%; 95% CI, 89.8%-99.0%; specificity, 95.5%; 95% CI, 94.7%-96.1%; diagnostic yield, 2.1%; 95% CI, 1.6%-2.6%; P < .001). This selective strategy missed 4.9% of Lynch syndrome cases but resulted in 34.8% fewer cases requiring tumor MMR testing and 28.6% fewer cases undergoing germline mutational analysis than the universal approach.Universal tumor MMR testing among CRC probands had a greater sensitivity for the identification of Lynch syndrome compared with multiple alternative strategies, although the increase in the diagnostic yield was modest.

Project description:Objective:This study aimed to compare the molecular, clinical, and pathological characteristics and pedigrees of familial colorectal cancer type X (FCCTX) with those of Lynch syndrome (LS) to provide a theoretical basis for the management of FCCTX. Methods:Overall, 46 cases of FCCTX and 47 LS probands and affected families were enrolled between June 2008 and September 2018 for this study. Multigene cancer panel tests that included 139 genes were performed for all patients, and variants in each group were described. The clinical, pathological, and pedigree characteristics were also compared between the two groups. Results:In total, 42 variants were detected in 27 (58.7%) cases in the FCCTX group, with BRCA1, BRCA2, POLE, POLD1, ATR, and ATM being the most frequently mutated genes. The mean onset age of colorectal cancer (CRC) was significantly older in the FCCTX group than in the LS group (53.57 ± 12.88 years vs. 44.36 ± 11.26 years, t = -9.204, p < 0.001). The proportion of patients with rectal cancer was also higher in the FCCTX group than in the LS group [43.5% (20/46) vs. 10.6% (5/47), ?2 = 12.823, p = 0.005]. Within a median follow-up time of 53.9 ± 37.0 months, the proportion of patients who developed metachronous CRC was significantly higher in the LS group than in the FCCTX group [34.0% (16/47) vs. 13.0% (6/46), ?2 = 5.676, p = 0.017]. When comparing pedigrees, older age at cancer onset and rectal cancer clustering were observed in the FCCTX families. A higher prevalence in male patients was also observed in the FCCTX families. Conclusion:FCCTX is an entity distinct from LS, but its genetic etiology remains unknown. A larger multigene panel would be recommended for determining the underlying pathogenic variants. Considering the pathology and moderate penetrance of the CRC link to FCCTX, less stringent surgical treatments and colonoscopy surveillance would be preferable. Rectum preference is a typical feature of FCCTX. Colonoscopy surveillance in FCCTX families could be less intensive, and more attention should be given to male members.

Dataset Information

Comparison of Prediction Models for Lynch Syndrome Among Individuals With Colorectal Cancer.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Comparison of Prediction Models for Lynch Syndrome Among Individuals With Colorectal Cancer.

Similar Datasets

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