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Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

ABSTRACT: Elevated blood pressure in midlife contributes significantly to the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, patterns of blood pressure increase may differ among individuals and may result in differential risk. Our goal was to examine the contribution of longitudinal patterns of blood pressure change to incidence of heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular disease mortality. Latent class growth models were used to identify patterns of change in blood pressure across 4 clinical examinations (1987-1998) among 9845 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort participants (mean age, 53.7 [SD 5.7] years). Patterns of change in systolic blood pressure included slowly and steeply increasing, a decreasing and a sustained elevated blood pressure. Changes in diastolic and mid-blood pressure (½ systolic+½ diastolic) were less pronounced. The association of blood pressure pattern group membership with incidence of clinical outcomes was examined in follow-up from the fourth clinical examination (1996-1998) to December 31, 2011, using Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic and metabolic characteristics, and hypertension medication use. A gradient of rates of all events was observed across the identified patterns. Associations were attenuated after adjustment for covariates. Cumulative systolic blood pressure load, rather than the temporal pattern of change in systolic blood pressure itself, plays a role in determining the risk of cardiovascular disease, in particular, of heart failure and cardiovascular disease mortality, independent of blood pressure level measured at one point in time.

SUBMITTER: Petruski-Ivleva N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4865423 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Petruski-Ivleva Natalia N Viera Anthony J AJ Shimbo Daichi D Muntner Paul P Avery Christy L CL Schneider Andrea L C AL Couper David D Kucharska-Newton Anna A

Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979) 20160404 6

Elevated blood pressure in midlife contributes significantly to the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, patterns of blood pressure increase may differ among individuals and may result in differential risk. Our goal was to examine the contribution of longitudinal patterns of blood pressure change to incidence of heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular disease mortality. Latent class growth models were used to identify patterns of change in blood pressure across 4 cl ...[more]

PMID: 27045024

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Project description:IMPORTANCE:Studies document a progressive increase in heart disease risk as systolic blood pressure (SBP) rises above 115 mm Hg, but it is unknown whether an SBP lower than 120 mm Hg among adults with hypertension (HTN) lowers heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction risk. OBJECTIVE:To examine the risk of incident cardiovascular (CV) events among adults with HTN according to 3 SBP levels: 140 mm Hg or higher; 120 to 139 mm Hg; and a reference level of lower than 120 mm Hg. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:A total of 4480 participants with HTN but without prevalent CV disease at baseline (years 1987-1989) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study were included. Measurements of SBP were taken at baseline and at 3 triennial visits; SBP was treated as a time-dependent variable and categorized as elevated (?140 mm Hg), standard (120-139 mm Hg), and low (<120 mm Hg). Multivariable Cox regression models included baseline age, sex, diabetes status, BMI, high cholesterol level, smoking status, and alcohol intake. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Incident composite CV events (heart failure, ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or death related to coronary heart disease). RESULTS:After a median follow-up of 21.8 years, a total of 1622 incident CV events had occurred. Participants with elevated SBP developed incident CV events at a significantly higher rate than those in the low BP group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.26-1.69). However, there was no difference in incident CV event-free survival among those in the standard vs low SBP group (adjusted HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.17). Further adjustment for BP medication use or diastolic BP did not significantly affect the results. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:Among patients with HTN, having an elevated SBP carries the highest risk for cardiovascular events, but in this categorical analysis, once SBP was below 140 mm Hg, an SBP lower than 120 mm Hg did not appear to lessen the risk of incident CV events.

Dataset Information

Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Publications

Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Similar Datasets

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