Cholera Incidence and Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Sites during Multi-country Surveillance.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Cholera burden in Africa remains unknown, often because of weak national surveillance systems. We analyzed data from the African Cholera Surveillance Network (www.africhol.org).Methods/ principal findings
During June 2011-December 2013, we conducted enhanced surveillance in seven zones and four outbreak sites in Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire. All health facilities treating cholera cases were included. Cholera incidences were calculated using culture-confirmed cholera cases and culture-confirmed cholera cases corrected for lack of culture testing usually due to overwhelmed health systems and imperfect test sensitivity. Of 13,377 reported suspected cases, 34% occurred in Conakry, Guinea, 47% in Goma, DRC, and 19% in the remaining sites. From 0-40% of suspected cases were aged under five years and from 0.3-86% had rice water stools. Within surveillance zones, 0-37% of suspected cases had confirmed cholera compared to 27-38% during outbreaks. Annual confirmed incidence per 10,000 population was <0.5 in surveillance zones, except Goma where it was 4.6. Goma and Conakry had corrected incidences of 20.2 and 5.8 respectively, while the other zones a median of 0.3. During outbreaks, corrected incidence varied from 2.6 to 13.0. Case fatality ratios ranged from 0-10% (median, 1%) by country.Conclusions/significance
Across different African epidemiological contexts, substantial variation occurred in cholera incidence, age distribution, clinical presentation, culture confirmation, and testing frequency. These results can help guide preventive activities, including vaccine use.
SUBMITTER: Sauvageot D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4871502 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Cholera Incidence and Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Sites during Multi-country Surveillance.
Sauvageot Delphine D Njanpop-Lafourcade Berthe-Marie BM Akilimali Laurent L Anne Jean-Claude JC Bidjada Pawou P Bompangue Didier D Bwire Godfrey G Coulibaly Daouda D Dengo-Baloi Liliana L Dosso Mireille M Orach Christopher Garimoi CG Inguane Dorteia D Kagirita Atek A Kacou-N'Douba Adele A Keita Sakoba S Kere Banla Abiba A Kouame Yao Jean-Pierre YJ Landoh Dadja Essoya DE Langa Jose Paulo JP Makumbi Issa I Miwanda Berthe B Malimbo Muggaga M Mutombo Guy G Mutombo Annie A NGuetta Emilienne Niamke EN Saliou Mamadou M Sarr Veronique V Senga Raphael Kakongo RK Sory Fode F Sema Cynthia C Tante Ouyi Valentin OV Gessner Bradford D BD Mengel Martin A MA
PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20160517 5
<h4>Background</h4>Cholera burden in Africa remains unknown, often because of weak national surveillance systems. We analyzed data from the African Cholera Surveillance Network (www.africhol.org).<h4>Methods/ principal findings</h4>During June 2011-December 2013, we conducted enhanced surveillance in seven zones and four outbreak sites in Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire. All health facilities treating cholera cases were included. Cholera ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundMozambique suffers recurrent annual cholera outbreaks especially during the rainy season between October to March. The African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) was implemented in Mozambique in 2011 to generate accurate detailed surveillance data to support appropriate interventions for cholera control and prevention in the country.Methodology/principal findingsAfrichol was implemented in enhanced surveillance zones located in the provinces of Sofala (Beira), Zambézia (District Mocuba), and Cabo Delgado (Pemba City). Data were also analyzed from the three outbreak areas that experienced the greatest number of cases during the time period under observation (in the districts of Cuamba, Montepuez, and Nampula). Rectal swabs were collected from suspected cases for identification of Vibrio cholerae, as well as clinical, behavioral, and socio-demographic variables. We analyzed factors associated with confirmed, hospitalized, and fatal cholera using multivariate logistic regression models. A total of 1,863 suspected cases and 23 deaths (case fatality ratio (CFR), 1.2%) were reported from October 2011 to December 2015. Among these suspected cases, 52.2% were tested of which 23.5% were positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa. Risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of confirmed cholera were living in Nampula city district, the year 2014, human immunodeficiency virus infection, and the primary water source for drinking.Conclusions/significanceCholera was endemic in Mozambique during the study period with a high CFR and identifiable risk factors. The study reinforces the importance of continued cholera surveillance, including a strong laboratory component. The results enhanced our understanding of the need to target priority areas and at-risk populations for interventions including oral cholera vaccine (OCV) use, and assess the impact of prevention and control strategies. Our data were instrumental in informing integrated prevention and control efforts during major cholera outbreaks in recent years.
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Project description:Improvements in water and sanitation should reduce cholera risk though the associations between cholera and specific water and sanitation access measures remain unclear. We estimated the association between eight water and sanitation measures and annual cholera incidence access across sub-Saharan Africa (2010-2016) for data aggregated at the country and district levels. We fit random forest regression and classification models to understand how well these measures combined might be able to predict cholera incidence rates and identify high cholera incidence areas. Across spatial scales, piped or "other improved" water access was inversely associated with cholera incidence. Access to piped water, septic or sewer sanitation, and septic, sewer, or "other improved" sanitation were associated with decreased district-level cholera incidence. The classification model had moderate performance in identifying high cholera incidence areas (cross-validated-AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83) with high negative predictive values (93-100%) indicating the utility of water and sanitation measures for screening out areas that are unlikely to be at high cholera risk. While comprehensive cholera risk assessments must incorporate other data sources (e.g., historical incidence), our results suggest that water and sanitation measures could alone be useful in narrowing the geographic focus for detailed risk assessments.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Every year, an estimated 2.6 million stillbirths occur worldwide, with up to 98% occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). There is a paucity of primary data on cause of stillbirth from LMIC, and particularly from sub-Saharan Africa to inform effective interventions. This study aimed to identify the cause of stillbirths in low- and middle-income settings and compare methods of assessment. METHODS:This was a prospective, observational study in 12 hospitals in Kenya, Malawi, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe. Stillbirths (28 weeks or more) were reviewed to assign the cause of death by healthcare providers, an expert panel and by using computer-based algorithms. Agreement between the three methods was compared using Kappa (κ) analysis. Cause of stillbirth and level of agreement between the methods used to assign cause of death. RESULTS:One thousand five hundred sixty-three stillbirths were studied. The stillbirth rate (per 1000 births) was 20.3 in Malawi, 34.7 in Zimbabwe, 38.8 in Kenya and 118.1 in Sierra Leone. Half (50.7%) of all stillbirths occurred during the intrapartum period. Cause of death (range) overall varied by method of assessment and included: asphyxia (18.5-37.4%), placental disorders (8.4-15.1%), maternal hypertensive disorders (5.1-13.6%), infections (4.3-9.0%), cord problems (3.3-6.5%), and ruptured uterus due to obstructed labour (2.6-6.1%). Cause of stillbirth was unknown in 17.9-26.0% of cases. Moderate agreement was observed for cause of stillbirth as assigned by the expert panel and by hospital-based healthcare providers who conducted perinatal death review (κ = 0.69; p < 0.0005). There was only minimal agreement between expert panel review or healthcare provider review and computer-based algorithms (κ = 0.34; 0.31 respectively p < 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS:For the majority of stillbirths, an underlying likely cause of death could be determined despite limited diagnostic capacity. In these settings, more diagnostic information is, however, needed to establish a more specific cause of death for the majority of stillbirths. Existing computer-based algorithms used to assign cause of death require revision.
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Project description:IntroductionHIV incidence varies widely between sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This variation coincides with a substantial sociobehavioural heterogeneity, which complicates the design of effective interventions. In this study, we investigated how sociobehavioural heterogeneity in sub-Saharan Africa could account for the variance of HIV incidence between countries.MethodsWe analysed aggregated data, at the national-level, from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys of 29 SSA countries (2010-2017), which included 594,644 persons (183,310 men and 411,334 women). We preselected 48 demographic, socio-economic, behavioural and HIV-related attributes to describe each country. We used Principal Component Analysis to visualize sociobehavioural similarity between countries, and to identify the variables that accounted for most sociobehavioural variance in SSA. We used hierarchical clustering to identify groups of countries with similar sociobehavioural profiles, and we compared the distribution of HIV incidence (estimates from UNAIDS) and sociobehavioural variables within each cluster.ResultsThe most important characteristics, which explained 69% of sociobehavioural variance across SSA among the variables we assessed were: religion; male circumcision; number of sexual partners; literacy; uptake of HIV testing; women's empowerment; accepting attitude toward people living with HIV/AIDS; rurality; ART coverage; and, knowledge about AIDS. Our model revealed three groups of countries, each with characteristic sociobehavioural profiles. HIV incidence was mostly similar within each cluster and different between clusters (median (IQR); 0.5/1000 (0.6/1000), 1.8/1000 (1.3/1000) and 5.0/1000 (4.2/1000)).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the combination of sociobehavioural factors play a key role in determining the course of the HIV epidemic, and that similar techniques can help to predict the effects of behavioural change on the HIV epidemic and to design targeted interventions to impede HIV transmission in SSA.
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Project description:BackgroundThe impacts of optimal infant feeding practices on diarrhoea have been documented in some developing countries, but not in countries with high diarrhoea mortality as reported by the World Health Organisation/United Nations Children's Fund. We aimed to investigate the association between infant feeding practices and diarrhoea in sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality.MethodThe study used the most recent Demographic and Health Survey datasets collected in nine sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality, namely: Burkina Faso (2010, N = 9,733); Demographic Republic of Congo (2013; N = 10,458); Ethiopia (2013, N = 7,251); Kenya (2014, N = 14,034); Mali (2013, N = 6,365); Niger (2013, N = 7,235); Nigeria (2013, N = 18,539); Tanzania (2010, N = 5,013); and Uganda (2010, N = 4,472). Multilevel logistic regression models that adjusted for cluster and sampling weights were used to investigate the association between infant feeding practices and diarrhoea in these nine African countries.ResultsDiarrhoea prevalence was lower among children whose mothers practiced early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive and predominant breastfeeding. Early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding were significantly associated with lower risk of diarrhoea (OR = 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77-0.85, P<0.001 and OR = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.43-0.57, respectively). In contrast, introduction of complementary foods (OR = 1.31; 95%CI: 1.14-1.50) and continued breastfeeding at one year (OR = 1.27; 95%CI: 1.05-1.55) were significantly associated with a higher risk of diarrhoea.ConclusionEarly initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding are protective of diarrhoea in sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality. To reduce diarrhoea mortality and also achieve the health-related sustainable development goals in sub-Saharan African, an integrated, multi-agency strategic partnership within each country is needed to improve optimal infant feeding practices.
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Project description:AimTo identify better performing iCCM programs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and identify factors associated with better performance using routine data.MethodsWe examined 15 evaluations or studies of integrated community case management (iCCM) programs in SSA conducted between 2008 and 2013 and with information about the program; routine data on treatments, supervision, and stockouts; and, where available, data from community health worker (CHW) surveys on supervision and stockouts. Analyses included descriptive statistics, Fisher exact test for differences in median treatment rates, the Kruskal-Wallis test for differences in the distribution of treatment rates, and Spearman's correlation by program factors.ResultsThe median percent of annual expected cases treated was 27% (1-74%) for total iCCM, 37% (1-80%) for malaria, 155% (7-552%) for pneumonia, and 27% (1-74%) for diarrhoea. Seven programs had above median total iCCM treatments rates. Four programs had above median treatment rates, above median treatments per active CHW per month, and above median percent of expected cases treated. Larger populations under-five targeted were negatively associated with treatment rates for fever, malaria, diarrhea, and total iCCM. The ratio of CHWs per population was positively associated with diarrhoea treatment rates. Use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) was negatively associated with treatment rates for pneumonia. Treatment rates and percent of annual expected cases treated were equivalent between programs with volunteer CHWs and programs with salaried CHWs.ConclusionsThere is large variation in iCCM program performance in SSA. Four programs appear to be higher performing in terms of treatment rates, treatments per CHW per month, and percent of expected cases treated. Treatment rates for diarrhoea are lower than expected across most programmes. CHWs in many programmes are overtreating pneumonia. Programs targeting larger populations under-five tend to have lower treatment rates. The reasons for lower pneumonia treatment rates where CHWs use RDTs need to be explored. Programs with volunteer CHWs and those with salaried CHWs can achieve similar treatment rates and percent of annual expected cases treated but to do so volunteer programs must manage more CHWs per population and salaried CHWs must provide more treatments per CHW per month.
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Project description:BackgroundThe African continent hosts many industrial mining projects, and many more are planned due to recent prospecting discoveries and increasing demand for various minerals to promote a low-carbon future. The extraction of natural resources in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) represents an opportunity for economic development but also poses a threat to population health through rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. Children could benefit from improved economic growth through various channels such as access to high-quality food, better sanitation, and clean water. However, mining can increase food insecurity and trigger local competition over safe drinking water. Child health can be threatened by exposure to mining-related air, noise, and water pollution. To assess the impact of mines on child health, we analyse socio-demographic, health, and mining data before and after several mining projects were commissioned in SSA.ResultsData of 90,951 children living around 81 mining sites in 23 countries in SSA were analysed for child mortality indicators, and 79,962 children from 59 mining areas in 18 SSA countries were analysed for diarrhoea, cough, and anthropometric indicators. No effects of the launch of new mining projects on overall under-five mortality were found (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 0.88; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.68-1.14). However, activation of mining projects reduced the mortality risk among neonates (0-30 days) by 45% (aOR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.37-0.83) and risk for a child to develop diarrhoeal diseases by 32% (aOR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0,51-0.90). The timing analysis of observed changes showed that there is a significant decline in the risk for childhood diarrhoea (aOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.49-0.97), and the mean height-for-age z-scores by 28 percentage points, during the prospection and construction phase; i.e., within four years to the initiation of extraction activity. No effects were found for cough and weight-for-height.ConclusionThe results presented suggest that the impacts of mining on child health vary throughout the mine's life cycle. Mining development likely contributes positively to the income and livelihoods of the impacted communities in the initial years of mining operations, particularly the prospection and construction phase; these potential benefits are likely to be at least partially offset by food insecurity and environmental pollution during early and later mining stages, respectively. Further research is warranted to better understand these health impacts and to identify policies that can help sustain the positive initial health impacts of mining projects in the long term.
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