Dataset Information

Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

ABSTRACT: Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of naturally established individuals because this improves the accuracy of predictions about their distribution ranges.

SUBMITTER: Ramirez-Albores JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4873032 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

Ramírez-Albores Jorge E JE Bustamante Ramiro O RO Badano Ernesto I EI

PloS one 20160519 5

Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established indiv ...[more]

PMID: 27195983

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Project description:AimTree invasions are a threat to biodiversity conservation, and although it is hard to predict the future spread of invasive tree species, there are tools available which could allow some estimations. The magnitude of spatial spread (a proxy of invasiveness) can be predicted from species climatic requirement (climatic niche) and can be represented by species distribution models (SDMs). We aimed to assess whether Acacia dealbata conserves its niche in the new environment of south-central Chile, and also, to estimate the invasive stage of the species.LocationSouth-central area of Chile, between the O'Higgins (34°0″0'S) and Aysen Regions (47°0″0'S).MethodsWe used a combination of global, native, and regional data to improve the estimation of the potential distribution of A. dealbata, which has been considered one of the most invasive species of the genus, being registered in at least 34 countries in all the Continents.ResultsOur results show that A. dealbata does not conserve its niche in the study area, invading areas with climatic conditions different from those of the native range. It is also not at equilibrium with the environment. According to the global versus regional SDM comparisons, populations present in south-central Chile present different invasion stages. There are some stable populations, but there are other populations colonizing new areas, occupying unsuitable habitats and some of them are adapting to new climatic conditions. Climatic factors, such as precipitation seasonality, could be acting behind the expansion to new environments, and biotic factors or dispersal limitations could be preventing the species to colonize suitable areas.Main conclusionsThe invasion process of A. dealbata is far from stabilizing, and management options should focus on prevention, avoiding, for example, the introduction of the species to Patagonia where the species has not spread yet. More research is needed to complement our results and enhance the development of effective management strategies.

Project description:The influence of climate on the distribution of taxa has been extensively investigated in the last two decades through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). In this context, the Worldclim database represents an invaluable data source as it provides worldwide climate surfaces for both historical and future time horizons. Thousands of HSMs-based papers have been published taking advantage of Worldclim 1.4, the first online version of this repository. In 2017, Worldclim 2.1 was released. Here, we evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing on Europe, between HSMs fitted using climate surfaces from the two Worldclim versions (between-version differences). To this aim, we simulated occurrence probability and presence-absence across Europe of four virtual species (VS) with differing climate-occurrence relationships. For each VS, we fitted HSMs upon uncorrelated bioclimatic variables derived from each Worldclim version at three grid resolutions. For each factor combination, HSMs attaining sufficient discrimination performance on spatially independent test data were projected across Europe under current conditions and various future scenarios, and importance scores of the single variables were computed. HSMs failed in accurately retrieving the simulated climate-occurrence relationships for the climate-tolerant VS and the one occurring under a narrow combination of climatic conditions. Under current climate, noticeable between-version prediction mismatch emerged across most of Europe for these two VSs, whose simulated suitability mainly depended upon diurnal or yearly variability in temperature; differently, between-version differences were more clustered toward areas showing extreme values, like mountainous massifs or southern regions, for VSs responding to average temperature and precipitation trends. Under future climate, the chosen emission scenarios and Global Climate Models did not evidently influence between-version prediction discrepancies, while grid resolution synergistically interacted with VSs' niche characteristics in determining extent of such differences. Our findings could help in re-evaluating previous biodiversity-related works relying on geographical predictions from Worldclim-based HSMs.

Project description:Studying the distribution of samara species is of ecological and economic significance. This information helps us with understanding species dispersal mechanisms, evaluating the risk of invasive species, and the management of ecological forests. However, limited research has explored, on a large scale, the geographic distribution of samara species and their influential abiotic factors. Here, we use the distribution data of 835 vascular samara species and growth form data to explore their geographic patterns in China and the environmental determinants. We divided China into 984 grid cells and examined the relationship between the proportion of samara species and climate variables using both ordinary and spatial linear regressions for each grid cell. Total samara species richness is higher in southern China in low altitude regions and the proportion of woody samara species is significantly higher than that of herbaceous samara species. The proportion of woody samara species is higher in the northeast regions where precipitation is sufficient, winters are dry and mild, and temperature seasonality and land surface relief degree values are high. Annual precipitation and temperature seasonality are the most important climatic drivers for the distribution of woody samara species. In contrast, herbaceous samara species prefer to distribute to the areas where climate is warm and dry but have higher temperature seasonality. Temperature related variables (mean annual temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality) are the most important drivers for the distribution of herbaceous samara species. Samara species can better adapt to climatic regions with large temperature fluctuations and dry winters. The present distribution patterns of samara species are formed by the combined adaptation of fruit traits and growth form to climate. This work contributes to predictions of the global distribution of samara species under future climate change scenarios and conservation and management for the samara species.

Dataset Information

Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

Publications

Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

Similar Datasets

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