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Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

ABSTRACT: In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting (a) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and (b) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record

SUBMITTER: Dore BP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4873355 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

Doré Bruce P BP Meksin Robert R Mather Mara M Hirst William W Ochsner Kevin N KN

Journal of experimental psychology. General 20160421 6

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occu ...[more]

PMID: 27100309

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Autoimmune disease is an emerging condition among persons exposed to the September 11, 2001 attack on the World Trade Center (WTC). Components of the dust cloud resulting from the collapse of the WTC have been associated with development of a systemic autoimmune disease, as has posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We undertook this study to determine whether dust exposure and PTSD were associated with an increased risk of systemic autoimmune disease in a 9/11-exposed cohort. METHODS:Among 43,133 WTC Health Registry enrollees, 2,786 self-reported having a post-9/11 systemic autoimmune disease. We obtained informed consent to review medical records to validate systemic autoimmune disease diagnoses for 1,041 enrollees. Diagnoses of systemic autoimmune diseases were confirmed by classification criteria, rheumatologist diagnosis, or having been prescribed systemic autoimmune disease medication. Controls were enrollees who denied having an autoimmune disease diagnosis (n = 37,017). We used multivariable log-binomial regression to examine the association between multiple 9/11 exposures and risk of post-9/11 systemic autoimmune disease, stratifying by responders (rescue, recovery, and clean-up workers) and community members (e.g., residents, area workers). RESULTS:We identified 118 persons with systemic autoimmune disease. Rheumatoid arthritis was most frequent (n = 71), followed by Sj?gren's syndrome (n = 22), systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 20), myositis (n = 9), mixed connective tissue disease (n = 7), and scleroderma (n = 4). Among 9/11 responders, those with intense dust cloud exposure had almost twice the risk of systemic autoimmune disease (adjusted risk ratio 1.86 [95% confidence interval 1.02-3.40]). Community members with PTSD had a nearly 3-fold increased risk of systemic autoimmune disease. CONCLUSION:Intense dust cloud exposure among responders and PTSD among community members were associated with a statistically significant increased risk of new-onset systemic autoimmune disease. Clinicians treating 9/11 survivors should be aware of the potential increased risk of systemic autoimmune disease in this population.

Project description:ImportanceEmerging evidence suggests that harmful exposures during military service, such as traumatic brain injury (TBI), may contribute to mental health, chronic disease, and mortality risks.ObjectiveTo assess the mortality rates and estimate the number of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths among veterans serving after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks (9/11) with and without exposure to TBI.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed administrative and mortality data from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2018, for a cohort of US military veterans who served during the Global War on Terrorism after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Veterans who served active duty after 9/11 with 3 or more years of care in the Military Health System or had 3 or more years of care in the Military Health System and 2 or more years of care in the Veterans Health Administration were included for analysis. The study used data from the Veterans Affairs/Department of Defense Identity Repository database, matching health records data from the Military Health Service Management Analysis and Reporting tool, the Veterans Health Administration Veterans Informatics and Computing Infrastructure, and the National Death Index. For comparison with the total US population, the study used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database. Data analysis was performed from June 16 to September 8, 2021.ExposureTraumatic brain injury.Main outcomes and measuresMultivariable, negative binomial regression models were used to estimate adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for the post-9/11 military veteran cohort, stratified by TBI severity level, and the total US population. Differences in mortality rates between post-9/11 military veterans and the total US population were used to estimate excess deaths from each cause of death.ResultsAmong 2 516 189 post-9/11 military veterans (2 167 736 [86.2%] male; and 45 324 [1.8%] American Indian/Alaska Native, 160 178 [6.4%], Asian/Pacific Islander, 259 737 [10.3%] Hispanic, 387 926 [15.4%] non-Hispanic Black, 1 619 834 [64.4%] non-Hispanic White, and 43 190 [1.7%] unknown), 17.5% had mild TBI and 3.0% had moderate to severe TBI; there were 30 564 deaths. Adjusted, age-specific mortality rates were higher for post-9/11 military veterans than for the total US population and increased with TBI severity. There were an estimated 3858 (95% CI, 1225-6490) excess deaths among all post-9/11 military veterans. Of these, an estimated 275 (95% CI, -1435 to 1985) were not exposed to TBI, 2285 (95% CI, 1637 to 2933) had mild TBI, and 1298 (95% CI, 1023 to 1572) had moderate to severe TBI. Estimated excess deaths were predominantly from suicides (4218; 95% CI, 3621 to 4816) and accidents (2631; 95% CI, 1929 to 3333). Veterans with moderate to severe TBI accounted for 33.6% of total excess deaths, 11-fold higher than would otherwise be expected.Conclusions and relevanceThis military veteran cohort experienced more excess mortality compared with the total US population than all combat deaths from 9/11/01 through 9/11/21, concentrated among individuals exposed to TBI. These results suggest that a focus on what puts veterans at risk for accelerated aging and increased mortality is warranted.

Project description:BackgroundPediatric oncology patients have a high rate of clinical deterioration frequently requiring critical care. Patient deterioration events are distressing for clinicians, but little is known about how Pediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) impact clinicians' emotional responses to deterioration events.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 83 nurses, pediatricians, oncologists, and intensive care clinicians who had recently participated in a patient deterioration event at two pediatric oncology hospitals of different resource-levels: St. Jude Children's Research Hospital (N = 42 participants) in Memphis, Tennessee or Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica (N = 41 participants) in Guatemala City, Guatemala. Interviews were conducted in the participants' native language (English or Spanish), transcribed, and translated into English. Each transcript was coded by two researchers and analyzed for thematic content.ResultsEmotions around patient deterioration including concern, fear, and frustration were reported across all disciplines at both hospitals. Concern was often triggered by an elevated PEWS score and usually resulted in increased attention, which reassured bedside clinicians that patients were receiving necessary interventions. However, persistently elevated PEWS scores, particularly at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, occasionally resulted in a false sense of relief, diminishing clinician attention and negatively impacting patient care. Nurses at both institutions described how PEWS amplified their voices, engendering confidence and empowerment, two of the only positive emotions described in the study.ConclusionClinicians experienced a range of emotions while caring for high-risk patients in the setting of clinical deterioration. These emotions have the potential to contribute to compassion fatigue and burnout, or to resilience. Acknowledgment and further investigation of the complex interplay between PEWS and clinician emotions are necessary to maximize the impact of PEWS on patient safety while simultaneously supporting staff wellbeing.

Project description:ImportanceElevated incidence rates of thyroid cancer among World Trade Center (WTC)-exposed individuals may be associated with the identification of asymptomatic cancers during medical surveillance.ObjectiveTo examine the association between WTC exposure and thyroid cancer among Fire Department of the City of New York (hereafter, Fire Department) rescue/recovery workers as well as the association with medical surveillance.Design, setting, and participantsThis closed-cohort study classified the method of detection (asymptomatic and symptomatic) of thyroid cancers in 14 987 men monitored through the Fire Department-WTC Health Program diagnosed from September 12, 2001, to December 31, 2018. Age-, sex-, and histologic-specific Fire Department incidence rates were calculated and compared with demographically similar men in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from the Rochester Epidemiology Project using age-standardized rates, relative rates (RRs), and 95% CIs. The secondary analysis was restricted to papillary carcinomas.ExposuresWorld Trade Center exposure was defined as rescue/recovery work at the WTC site from September 11, 2001, to July 25, 2002.Main outcomes and measuresThe outcomes evaluated comprised (1) number of incident thyroid cancers and their detection method categorizations in the Fire Department and Rochester Epidemiology Project cohorts; (2) Fire Department, Rochester Epidemiology Project, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-21 age-standardized incidence rates of thyroid cancer; and (3) RRs comparing Fire Department and Rochester Epidemiology Project overall and by detection method categorization.ResultsSeventy-two post-9/11 Fire Department cases of thyroid cancer were identified. Among the 65 cases (90.3%) with a categorized detection method, 53 cases (81.5%) were asymptomatic and 12 cases (18.5%) were symptomatic. Median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis was 50.2 (44.0-58.6) vs 46.6 (43.9-52.9) years for asymptomatic vs symptomatic cases. Associated primarily with asymptomatic cancers, the overall age-standardized incidence of Fire Department thyroid cancers (24.7; 95% CI, 17.4-52.3) was significantly higher than the Rochester Epidemiology Project (10.4; 95% CI, 8.5-12.7) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-21 (9.1; 95% CI, 9.0-9.1) per 100 000 person-years. Furthermore, the RR of thyroid cancer among symptomatic men in Fire Department cases was not significantly different from that of men in the Rochester Epidemiology Project (0.8; 95% CI, 0.4-1.5); however, the rate of asymptomatic cancers was more than 3-fold that of the Rochester Epidemiology Project rate (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.1-4.7).Conclusions and relevanceExcess asymptomatic thyroid cancer in Fire Department WTC-exposed rescue/recovery workers is apparently attributable to the identification of occult lesions during medical surveillance. Among WTC-exposed cohorts and the general population, these findings appear to have important implications for how thyroid cancer incidence rates are interpreted and how diagnoses should be managed.

Dataset Information

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

Publications

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

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