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Identifying Future High Cost Individuals within an Intermediate Cost Population.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Improving health and controlling healthcare costs requires better tools for predicting future health needs across populations. We sought to identify factors associated with transitioning of enrollees in an indigent care program from an intermediate cost segment to a high cost segment of this population. METHODS:We analyzed data from 9,624 enrollees of the Virginia Coordinated Care program between 2010 and 2013. Each fiscal year included all enrollees who were classified in intermediate cost segment in the preceding year and also enrolled in the program in the following year. Using information from the preceding year, we built logistic regression models to identify the individuals in the top 10% of expenditures in the following year. The effect of demographics, count of chronic conditions, presence of the prevalent chronic conditions, and utilization indicators were evaluated and compared. Models were compared via the Bayesian information criterion and c-statistic. RESULTS:The count of chronic conditions, diagnosis of congestive heart failure, and numbers of total hospital visits and prescriptions were significantly and independently associated with being in the future high cost segment. Overall, the model that included demographics and utilization indicators had a reasonable discrimination (c=0.67). CONCLUSIONS:A simple model including demographics and health utilization indicators predicted high future costs. The count of chronic conditions and certain medical diagnoses added additional predictive value. With further validation, the approach could be used to identify high-risk individuals and target interventions that decrease utilization and improve health.

SUBMITTER: Lu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4874657 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identifying Future High Cost Individuals within an Intermediate Cost Population.

Lu Juan J Britton Erin E Ferrance Jacquelyn J Rice Emily E Kuzel Anton A Dow Alan A

Quality in primary care 20150101 6

<h4>Background</h4>Improving health and controlling healthcare costs requires better tools for predicting future health needs across populations. We sought to identify factors associated with transitioning of enrollees in an indigent care program from an intermediate cost segment to a high cost segment of this population.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed data from 9,624 enrollees of the Virginia Coordinated Care program between 2010 and 2013. Each fiscal year included all enrollees who were classified ...[more]

PMID: 27212892

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Project description:ImportanceIdentifying high priority pediatric conditions is important for setting a research agenda in hospital pediatrics that will benefit families, clinicians, and the health care system. However, the last such prioritization study was conducted more than a decade ago and used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes.ObjectivesTo identify conditions that should be prioritized for comparative effectiveness research based on prevalence, cost, and variation in cost of hospitalizations using contemporary data at US children's hospitals.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study of children with hospital encounters used data from the Pediatric Health Information System database. Children younger than 18 years with inpatient hospital encounters at 45 tertiary care US children's hospitals between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, were included. Data were analyzed from March 2020 to April 2021.Main outcomes and measuresThe condition-specific prevalence and total standardized cost, the corresponding prevalence and cost ranks, and the variation in standardized cost per encounter across hospitals were analyzed. The variation in cost was assessed using the number of outlier hospitals and intraclass correlation coefficient.ResultsThere were 2 882 490 inpatient hospital encounters (median [interquartile range] age, 4 [1-12] years; 1 554 024 [53.9%] boys) included. Among the 50 most prevalent and 50 most costly conditions (total, 74 conditions), 49 (66.2%) were medical, 15 (20.3%) were surgical, and 10 (13.5%) were medical/surgical. The top 10 conditions by cost accounted for $12.4 billion of $33.4 billion total costs (37.4%) and 592 815 encounters (33.8% of all encounters). Of 74 conditions, 4 conditions had an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.30 or higher (ie, major depressive disorder: ICC, 0.49; type 1 diabetes with complications: ICC, 0.36; diabetic ketoacidosis: ICC, 0.33; acute appendicitis without peritonitis: ICC, 0.30), and 9 conditions had an ICC higher than 0.20 (scoliosis: ICC, 0.27; hypertrophy of tonsils and adenoids: ICC, 0.26; supracondylar fracture of humerus: ICC, 0.25; cleft lip and palate: ICC, 0.24; acute appendicitis with peritonitis: ICC, 0.21). Examples of conditions high in prevalence, cost, and variation in cost included major depressive disorder (cost rank, 19; prevalence rank, 10; ICC, 0.49), scoliosis (cost rank, 6; prevalence rank, 38; ICC, 0.27), acute appendicitis with peritonitis (cost rank, 13; prevalence rank, 11; ICC, 0.21), asthma (cost rank, 10; prevalence rank, 2; ICC, 0.17), and dehydration (cost rank, 24; prevalence rank, 8; ICC, 0.18).Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study found that major depressive disorder, scoliosis, acute appendicitis with peritonitis, asthma, and dehydration were high in prevalence, costs, and variation in cost. These results could help identify where future comparative effectiveness research in hospital pediatrics should be targeted to improve the care and outcomes of hospitalized children.

Project description:BackgroundIn an effort to improve both quality of care and cost-effectiveness, various care-management programmes have been developed for high-need high-cost (HNHC) patients. Early identification of patients at risk of becoming HNHC (i.e. case finding) is crucial to a programme's success. We aim to systematically identify prediction models predicting future HNHC healthcare use in adults, to describe their predictive performance and to assess their applicability.MethodsOvid MEDLINE® All, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and Google Scholar were systematically searched from inception through January 31, 2021. Risk of bias and methodological quality assessment was performed through the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).ResultsOf 5890 studies, 60 studies met inclusion criteria. Within these studies, 313 unique models were presented using a median development cohort size of 20,248 patients (IQR 5601-174,242). Predictors were derived from a combination of data sources, most often claims data (n = 37; 62%) and patient survey data (n = 29; 48%). Most studies (n = 36; 60%) estimated patients' risk to become part of some top percentage of the cost distribution (top-1-20%) within a mean time horizon of 16 months (range 12-60). Five studies (8%) predicted HNHC persistence over multiple years. Model validation was performed in 45 studies (76%). Model performance in terms of both calibration and discrimination was reported in 14 studies (23%). Overall risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 40 studies (67%), mostly due to a 'high' risk of bias in the subdomain 'Analysis' (n = 37; 62%).DiscussionThis is the first systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42020164734) of non-proprietary prognostic models predicting HNHC healthcare use. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Most identified models estimated a patient's risk to incur high healthcare expenditure during the subsequent year. However, case-finding strategies for HNHC care-management programmes are best informed by a model predicting HNHC persistence. Therefore, future studies should not only focus on validating and extending existing models, but also concentrate on clinical usefulness.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Segmentation of the high-need, high-cost (HNHC) population is required for reorganizing care to accommodate person-centered, integrated care delivery. Therefore, we aimed to identify and characterize relevant subgroups of the HNHC population in primary care by using demographic, biomedical, and socioeconomic patient characteristics. METHODS:This was a retrospective cohort study within a Dutch primary care group, with a follow-up period from September 1, 2014 to August 31, 2017. Chronically ill patients were included in the HNHC population if they belonged to the top 10% of care utilizers and/or suffered from multimorbidity and had an above-average care utilization. In a latent class analysis, forty-one patient characteristics were initially used as potential indicators of heterogeneity in HNHC patients' needs. RESULTS:Patient data from 12 602 HNHC patients was used. A 4-class model was considered statistically and clinically superior. The classes were named according to the characteristics that were most dominantly present and distinctive between the classes (i.e. mainly age, household position, and source of income). Class 1 ('older adults living with partner') included 39.3% of patients, class 2 ('older adults living alone') included 25.5% of patients, class 3 ('middle-aged, employed adults with family') included 23.3% of patients, and class 4 ('middle-aged adults with social welfare dependency') included 11.9% of patients. Diabetes was the most common condition in all classes; the second most prevalent condition differed between osteoarthritis in class 1 (21.7%) and 2 (23.8%), asthma in class 3 (25.3%), and mood disorders in class 4 (23.1%). Furthermore, while general practitioner (GP) care utilization increased during the follow-up period in the classes of older adults, it remained relatively stable in the middle-aged classes. CONCLUSIONS:Although the HNHC population is heterogeneous, distinct subgroups with relatively homogeneous patterns of mainly demographic and socioeconomic characteristics can be identified. This calls for tailoring care and increased attention for social determinants of health.

Project description:Background and aimsCurrent guidelines recommend colonoscopy every 3-5 years for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening of individuals with a familial history of CRC. The objective of this study was to compare the cost effectiveness of screening alternatives in this population.MethodsEight screening strategies were compared with no screening: fecal immunochemical test (FIT), Stool DNA and blood-based screening every 2 years, colonoscopy, computed tomography colonography, colon capsules, and sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, and colonoscopy at 45 years followed, if negative, by FIT every 2 years. Screening test and procedures performance were obtained from the literature. A microsimulation model reproducing the natural history of CRC was used to estimate the cost (€2018) and effectiveness [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] of each strategy. A lifetime horizon was used. Costs and effectiveness were discounted at 3.5% annually.ResultsCompared with no screening, colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy at a 30% uptake were the most effective strategy (46.3 and 43.9 QALY/1000). FIT at a 30 µg/g threshold with 30% uptake was only half as effective (25.7 QALY). Colonoscopy was associated with a cost of €484,000 per 1000 individuals whereas sigmoidoscopy and FIT were associated with much lower costs (€123,610 and €66,860). Incremental cost-effectiveness rate for FIT and sigmoidoscopy were €2600/QALY (versus no screening) and €3100/QALY (versus FIT), respectively, whereas it was €150,000/QALY for colonoscopy (versus sigmoidoscopy). With a lower threshold (10 µg/g) and a higher uptake of 45%, FIT was more effective and less costly than colonoscopy at a 30% uptake and was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €4240/QALY versus no screening.ConclusionAt 30% uptake, current screening is the most effective screening strategy for high-risk individuals but is associated with a high ICER. Sigmoidoscopy and FIT at lower thresholds (10 µg/g) and a higher uptake should be given consideration as cost-effective alternatives.Plain language summaryCost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening strategies in high-risk individuals Fecal occult blood testing with an immunochemical test (FIT) is generally considered as the most cost-effective alternative in colorectal cancer screening programs for average risk individuals without family history.Current screening guidelines for high-risk individuals with familial history recommend colonoscopy every 3-5 years.Colonoscopy every 3-5 years for individuals with familial history is the most effective strategy but is associated with a high incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.Compared with colonoscopy, if screening based on FIT is associated with a higher participation rate, it can achieve a similar effectiveness at a lower cost.

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Identifying Future High Cost Individuals within an Intermediate Cost Population.

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Identifying Future High Cost Individuals within an Intermediate Cost Population.

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