Dataset Information

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As Zika virus continues to spread, decisions regarding resource allocations to control the outbreak underscore the need for a tool to weigh policies according to their cost and the health burden they could avert. For example, to combat the current Zika outbreak the US President requested the allocation of $1.8 billion from Congress in February 2016.

Methodology/principal findings

Illustrated through an interactive tool, we evaluated how the number of Zika cases averted, the period during pregnancy in which Zika infection poses a risk of microcephaly, and probabilities of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) impact the cost at which an intervention is cost-effective. From Northeast Brazilian microcephaly incidence data, we estimated the probability of microcephaly in infants born to Zika-infected women (0.49% to 2.10%). We also estimated the probability of GBS arising from Zika infections in Brazil (0.02% to 0.06%) and Colombia (0.08%). We calculated that each microcephaly and GBS case incurs the loss of 29.95 DALYs and 1.25 DALYs per case, as well as direct medical costs for Latin America and the Caribbean of $91,102 and $28,818, respectively. We demonstrated the utility of our cost-effectiveness tool with examples evaluating funding commitments by Costa Rica and Brazil, the US presidential proposal, and the novel approach of genetically modified mosquitoes. Our analyses indicate that the commitments and the proposal are likely to be cost-effective, whereas the cost-effectiveness of genetically modified mosquitoes depends on the country of implementation.

Conclusions/significance

Current estimates from our tool suggest that the health burden from microcephaly and GBS warrants substantial expenditures focused on Zika virus control. Our results justify the funding committed in Costa Rica and Brazil and many aspects of the budget outlined in the US president's proposal. As data continue to be collected, new parameter estimates can be customized in real-time within our user-friendly tool to provide updated estimates on cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions in country-specific settings.

SUBMITTER: Alfaro-Murillo JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4874682 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control.

Alfaro-Murillo Jorge A JA Parpia Alyssa S AS Fitzpatrick Meagan C MC Tamagnan Jules A JA Medlock Jan J Ndeffo-Mbah Martial L ML Fish Durland D Ávila-Agüero María L ML Marín Rodrigo R Ko Albert I AI Galvani Alison P AP

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20160520 5

<h4>Background</h4>As Zika virus continues to spread, decisions regarding resource allocations to control the outbreak underscore the need for a tool to weigh policies according to their cost and the health burden they could avert. For example, to combat the current Zika outbreak the US President requested the allocation of $1.8 billion from Congress in February 2016.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Illustrated through an interactive tool, we evaluated how the number of Zika cases averted, ...[more]

PMID: 27205899

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Project description:IntroductionComparing multiple, diverse outcomes with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is important, yet challenging in areas like palliative care where domains are unamenable to integration with survival. Generic multi-attribute utility values exclude important domains and non-health outcomes, while partial analyses-where outcomes are considered separately, with their joint relationship under uncertainty ignored-lead to incorrect inference regarding preferred strategies.ObjectiveThe objective of this paper is to consider whether such decision making can be better informed with alternative presentation and summary measures, extending methods previously shown to have advantages in multiple strategy comparison.MethodsMultiple outcomes CEA of a home-based palliative care model (PEACH) relative to usual care is undertaken in cost disutility (CDU) space and compared with analysis on the cost-effectiveness plane. Summary measures developed for comparing strategies across potential threshold values for multiple outcomes include: expected net loss (ENL) planes quantifying differences in expected net benefit; the ENL contour identifying preferred strategies minimising ENL and their expected value of perfect information; and cost-effectiveness acceptability planes showing probability of strategies minimising ENL.ResultsConventional analysis suggests PEACH is cost-effective when the threshold value per additional day at home (?1) exceeds $1,068 or dominated by usual care when only the proportion of home deaths is considered. In contrast, neither alternative dominate in CDU space where cost and outcomes are jointly considered, with the optimal strategy depending on threshold values. For example, PEACH minimises ENL when ?1=$2,000 and ?2=$2,000 (threshold value for dying at home), with a 51.6% chance of PEACH being cost-effective.ConclusionComparison in CDU space and associated summary measures have distinct advantages to multiple domain comparisons, aiding transparent and robust joint comparison of costs and multiple effects under uncertainty across potential threshold values for effect, better informing net benefit assessment and related reimbursement and research decisions.

Project description:The response of pathophysiological research to emerging epidemics often occurs after the epidemic and, as a consequence, has little to no impact on improving patient outcomes or on developing high-quality evidence to inform clinical management strategies during the epidemic. Rapid and informed guidance of epidemic (research) responses to severe infectious disease outbreaks requires quick compilation and integration of existing pathophysiological knowledge. As a case study we chose the Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak that started in 2015 to develop a proof-of-concept knowledge repository. To extract data from available sources and build a computationally tractable and comprehensive molecular interaction map we applied generic knowledge management software for literature mining, expert knowledge curation, data integration, reporting and visualization. A multi-disciplinary team of experts, including clinicians, virologists, bioinformaticians and knowledge management specialists, followed a pre-defined workflow for rapid integration and evaluation of available evidence. While conventional approaches usually require months to comb through the existing literature, the initial ZIKV KnowledgeBase (ZIKA KB) was completed within a few weeks. Recently we updated the ZIKA KB with additional curated data from the large amount of literature published since 2016 and made it publicly available through a web interface together with a step-by-step guide to ensure reproducibility of the described use case. In addition, a detailed online user manual is provided to enable the ZIKV research community to generate hypotheses, share knowledge, identify knowledge gaps, and interactively explore and interpret data. A workflow for rapid response during outbreaks was generated, validated and refined and is also made available. The process described here can be used for timely structuring of pathophysiological knowledge for future threats. The resulting structured biological knowledge is a helpful tool for computational data analysis and generation of predictive models and opens new avenues for infectious disease research. ZIKV Knowledgebase is available at www.zikaknowledgebase.eu.

Project description:Background/objectivesRecently revised vaccination recommendations for US adults, aged 65 years and older, include both 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), with PCV13 now recommended for immunocompetent older people based on shared decision making. The public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this recommendation or of pneumococcal vaccine uptake improvement interventions are unclear.DesignMarkov decision analysis.Setting and participantsHypothetical 65-year-old general and black population cohorts.InterventionCurrent pneumococcal vaccination recommendations for US older people, an alternative policy omitting PCV13 in immunocompetent older people, and vaccine uptake improvement programs.ResultsThe current pneumococcal vaccination recommendation was the most effective strategy, but afforded slight public health benefits compared to an alternative (PPSV23 for all older people plus PCV13 for the immunocompromised) and cost greater than $750 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in either population group with a vaccine uptake improvement program (absolute uptake increase = 12.3%; cost = $1.78/eligible patient) in place. The alternative strategy was more economically favorable, but cost greater than $100 000/QALY in either population, with or without an uptake intervention. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses; however, in black older people, the alternative strategy with an uptake program was most likely to be favored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses at a $150 000/QALY gained threshold.ConclusionCurrent pneumococcal vaccination recommendations for US older people are economically unfavorable compared to an alternative strategy omitting PCV13 in the immunocompetent. The alternative recommendation with an uptake improvement program may be economically reasonable in black population analyses and could be worth considering as a population-wide recommendation if mitigating racial disparities is a priority. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1271-1278, 2020.

Dataset Information

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control.

Similar Datasets

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