Dataset Information

Extent of resection of glioblastoma revisited: personalized survival modeling facilitates more accurate survival prediction and supports a maximum-safe-resection approach to surgery.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Approximately 12,000 glioblastomas are diagnosed annually in the United States. The median survival rate for this disease is 12 months, but individual survival rates can vary with patient-specific factors, including extent of surgical resection (EOR). The goal of our investigation is to develop a reliable strategy for personalized survival prediction and for quantifying the relationship between survival, EOR, and adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

Patients and methods

We used accelerated failure time (AFT) modeling using data from 721 newly diagnosed patients with glioblastoma (from 1993 to 2010) to model the factors affecting individualized survival after surgical resection, and we used the model to construct probabilistic, patient-specific tools for survival prediction. We validated this model with independent data from 109 patients from a second institution.

Results

AFT modeling using age, Karnofsky performance score, EOR, and adjuvant chemoradiotherapy produced a continuous, nonlinear, multivariable survival model for glioblastoma. The median personalized predictive error was 4.37 months, representing a more than 20% improvement over current methods. Subsequent model-based calculations yield patient-specific predictions of the incremental effects of EOR and adjuvant therapy on survival.

Conclusion

Nonlinear, multivariable AFT modeling outperforms current methods for estimating individual survival after glioblastoma resection. The model produces personalized survival curves and quantifies the relationship between variables modulating patient-specific survival. This approach provides comprehensive, personalized, probabilistic, and clinically relevant information regarding the anticipated course of disease, the overall prognosis, and the patient-specific influence of EOR and adjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The continuous, nonlinear relationship identified between expected median survival and EOR argues against a surgical management strategy based on rigid EOR thresholds and instead provides the first explicit evidence supporting a maximum safe resection approach to glioblastoma surgery.

SUBMITTER: Marko NF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4876349 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceGlioblastoma multiforme (GBM) remains almost invariably fatal despite optimal surgical and medical therapy. The association between the extent of tumor resection (EOR) and outcome remains undefined, notwithstanding many relevant studies.ObjectiveTo determine whether greater EOR is associated with improved 1- and 2-year overall survival and 6-month and 1-year progression-free survival in patients with GBM.Data sourcesPubmed, CINAHL, and Web of Science (January 1, 1966, to December 1, 2015) were systematically reviewed with librarian guidance. Additional articles were included after consultation with experts and evaluation of bibliographies. Articles were collected from January 15 to December 1, 2015.Study selectionStudies of adult patients with newly diagnosed supratentorial GBM comparing various EOR and presenting objective overall or progression-free survival data were included. Pediatric studies were excluded.Data extraction and synthesisData were extracted from the text of articles or the Kaplan-Meier curves independently by investigators who were blinded to each other's results. Data were analyzed to assess mortality after gross total resection (GTR), subtotal resection (STR), and biopsy. The body of evidence was evaluated according to Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria and PRISMA guidelines.Main outcome and measuresRelative risk (RR) for mortality at 1 and 2 years and progression at 6 months and 1 year.ResultsThe search produced 37 studies suitable for inclusion (41 117 unique patients). The meta-analysis revealed decreased mortality for GTR compared with STR at 1 year (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.56-0.69; P < .001; number needed to treat [NNT], 9) and 2 years (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001; NNT, 17). The 1-year risk for mortality for STR compared with biopsy was reduced significantly (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.91; P < .001). The risk for mortality was similarly decreased for any resection compared with biopsy at 1 year (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.71-0.84; P < .001; NNT, 21) and 2 years (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-1.00; P = .04; NNT, 593). The likelihood of disease progression was decreased with GTR compared with STR at 6 months (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.48-1.09; P = .12; NNT, 14) and 1 year (RR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.43-0.99; P < .001; NNT, 26). The quality of the body of evidence by the GRADE criteria was moderate to low.Conclusion and relevanceThis analysis represents the largest systematic review and only quantitative systematic review to date performed on this subject. Compared with STR, GTR substantially improves overall and progression-free survival, but the quality of the supporting evidence is moderate to low.

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