Dataset Information

Carotid Atherosclerosis and Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Whether consideration of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque would improve risk prediction of ischemic stroke in persons with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the improvement in risk prediction of stroke by adding cIMT and carotid plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc (variables age, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease) score. METHODS:We included participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age, 63 years) who developed AF within 5 years after carotid measurement, were not on warfarin, and had no prior stroke at AF diagnosis. AF was ascertained from study ECGs and diagnosis codes, and stroke was physician adjudicated. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess association between carotid indices and ischemic stroke. Improvement in 10-year risk prediction of stroke was assessed by the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS:There were 81 (11.2%) stroke events that occurred among 724 participants with AF during a mean follow-up of 8.5 years. Increased cIMT and presence of carotid plaque were significantly associated with increased stroke risk. The addition of cIMT+plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc score marginally increased the C-statistic (95% confidence interval) from 0.685 (0.623-0.747) to 0.698 (0.638-0.759). The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement for cIMT+plaque were 0.091 (95% confidence interval, 0.012-0.170) and 0.101 (95% confidence interval, 0.002-0.226), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Increased cIMT and presence of carotid plaque are associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke in individuals with AF. Furthermore, they may improve risk prediction of stroke, over and above the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

SUBMITTER: Bekwelem W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4880451 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Carotid Atherosclerosis and Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Bekwelem Wobo W Jensen Paul N PN Norby Faye L FL Soliman Elsayed Z EZ Agarwal Sunil K SK Lip Gregory Y H GY Pan Wei W Folsom Aaron R AR Longstreth W T WT Alonso Alvaro A Heckbert Susan R SR Chen Lin Y LY

Stroke 20160505 6

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>Whether consideration of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque would improve risk prediction of ischemic stroke in persons with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the improvement in risk prediction of stroke by adding cIMT and carotid plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc (variables age, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease) score.<h4>Methods</h4>We i ...[more]

PMID: 27217511

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Project description:Essentials Atrial fibrillation (AF) may increase risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), and vice versa. Bidirectionality was assessed prospectively via data from 15 129 black and white individuals. AF was associated with greater risk of developing VTE, and VTE with greater risk of AF. Associations were strongest among blacks and in the first 6 months after initial diagnosis. SUMMARY:Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) frequently co-occur. These conditions have shared risk factors and are accompanied by coagulation abnormalities. Furthermore, mechanistic pathways may directly link the disorders. Objectives To test the hypothesis that individuals with incident AF are at greater risk of developing VTE, and those with VTE are at elevated risk of AF. We also tested whether associations were stronger in the first 6 months after the initial diagnosis, and explored race differences. Patients/Methods A total of 15 129 ARIC study participants (45-64 years, 55% female, 26% Black) were followed from 1987 to 2011 for incident AF and VTE (median follow-up 19.8 years). Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used, with AF and VTE modeled as time-dependent exposures. Results Incident AF was associated with greater risk of subsequent incident VTE (hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.71 [1.32-2.22]); the association was stronger in Black people (2.30 [1.48-3.58]) and during the first 6 months after AF diagnosis (5.08 [3.08-8.38]). Similarly, incident VTE was associated with increased risk of incident AF (1.73 [1.34-2.24]), especially in Black people (2.40 [1.55-3.74]) and in the first 6 months after VTE diagnosis (4.50 [2.61-7.77]). Conclusions The occurrence of AF was associated with increased risk of incident VTE, and occurrence of VTE was associated with greater risk of incident AF. Associations were particularly strong among Black people and during the first 6 months after the initial diagnosis, although they remained elevated even after 6 months. These findings highlight patient populations that may be at increased risk of AF and VTE, and perhaps should be targeted with preventive strategies.

Dataset Information

Carotid Atherosclerosis and Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Publications

Carotid Atherosclerosis and Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Similar Datasets

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