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Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

ABSTRACT: Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

SUBMITTER: Gao Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4886642 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

Gao Qingzhu Q Zhu Wenquan W Schwartz Mark W MW Ganjurjav Hasbagan H Wan Yunfan Y Qin Xiaobo X Ma Xin X Williamson Matthew A MA Li Yue Y

Scientific reports 20160531

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with cli ...[more]

PMID: 27243565

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Project description:Rain-fed pastoral systems are tightly connected to meteorological conditions. It is, therefore, likely that climate change, including changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, precipitation and patterns of climate extremes, will greatly affect pastoral systems. However, exact impacts on the productivity and carbon dynamics of these systems are still poorly understood, particularly over longtime scales. The present study assesses the potential effects of future climatic conditions on productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of mowed and rotationally grazed grasslands in France. We used the CenW ecosystem model to simulate carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in response to changes in environmental drivers and management practices. We first evaluated model responses to individual changes in each key meteorological variable to get better insights into the role and importance of each individual variable. Then, we used 3 sets of meteorological variables corresponding to 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for long-term model runs from 1975 to 2100. Finally, we used the same three RCPs to analyze the responses of modelled grasslands to extreme climate events. We found that increasing temperature slightly increased grasslands productivities but strongly reduced SOC stocks. A reduction in precipitation led to reductions of biomass and milk production but increased SOC. Conversely, doubling CO2 concentration strongly increased biomass and milk production and marginally reduced SOC. These SOC trends were unexpected. They arose because both increasing precipitation and CO2 increased photosynthetic carbon gain, but they had an even greater effect on the proportion of biomass that could be grazed. The amount of carbon remaining on site and able to contribute to SOC formation was actually reduced under both higher precipitation and CO2. The simulations under the three RCPs indicated that grassland productivity was increased, but that required higher N fertilizer application rates and also led to substantial SOC losses. We thus conclude that, while milk productivity may continue at current rates under climate change, or even increase slightly, there could be some soil C losses over the 21st century. In addition, under the highest-emission scenario, the increasing importance of extreme climate conditions (heat waves and droughts) might render conditions at our site in some years as unsuitable for milk production. It highlights the importance of tailoring farming practices to achieve the dual goals of maintaining agricultural production while safeguarding soil C stocks.

Project description:The ubiquity and long-range transport of the microorganisms inhabiting dust can pose a serious risk to human, animal, and plant health. The well-recognized importance of dust-associated microorganisms contrasts starkly with our limited understanding of the factors determining the variation in the composition of these communities at the global scale. Here, we provide the first insight into the global determinants of dust-associated microorganisms by quantifying the environmental factors shaping bacterial and fungal community composition in 467 outdoor settled dust samples collected from 33 countries and 6 continents. Our results show that the global variation in dust-associated bacterial and fungal community composition was, to some degree, predictable from mean annual precipitation and temperature. Notably, our results show that the fungal genera Alternaria and Aspergillus, which contain many species that can serve as triggers of allergenic disease in humans and as plant pathogens, were more abundant in drier regions. Collectively, these results highlight the key influence of climate on the global distribution of dust-associated microorganisms and provide the baseline information needed to build a more comprehensive understanding of how microbial exposures vary across the globe and in response to climate change. IMPORTANCE A broad diversity of microorganisms can be found in dust, with some of these microorganisms capable of causing allergenic disease in human via inhalation or affecting plant health by acting as plant pathogens. However, the spatial variation in dust microbiomes and the environmental factors associated with this variation have not been comprehensively assessed at the global scale. Here, we investigated the bacteria and fungi found in outdoor settled dust samples spanning 33 countries and 6 continents. Our results show that dust-associated bacteria and fungi exhibit climate-driven variability in community composition at the global scale. Our results call for the development of strategies to predict the geographic distribution of dust-associated microorganisms and to identify the potential associations between microbial exposures and the health of humans, animals, and plants.

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Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

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Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

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