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Stroke and thromboembolic event rates in atrial fibrillation according to different guideline treatment thresholds: A nationwide cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Contemporary guidelines suggest anticoagulant treatment decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients to be based on risk stratification for stroke. However, guidelines do not agree on the threshold for treatment initiation. We explored the variation in thromboembolic event rates in a non-anticoagulated AF population, according to different guideline threshold and methodological approaches. AF patients between 1998 and 2014 free from anticoagulant treatment were identified. Event rates for ischemic stroke and ischemic stroke/systemic embolism were explored. The overall ischemic stroke rate was 3.20 per 100 person-years ('formal rate assessment'). For patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 the ischemic stroke rate was 0.97 when using a 'formal rate assessment', 0.62 when using a 'conditioning on the future' approach, and 0.93 when using a 'censoring approach'. Rates for thromboembolism for the 'European treatment threshold' (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, males only) ranged 1.17 to 1.53. Rates for the 'U.S. treatment threshold' (CHA2DS2-VASc of 2) ranged from 1.95 to 2.33. Thromboembolic event rates differed markedly in non-anticoagulated AF patients according to the conflicting European and U.S. guideline treatment thresholds. Second, the choice of methodological approach has implications, thus we recommend using the censoring approach for event rate estimation among AF patients not on treatment.

SUBMITTER: Nielsen PB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4893655 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stroke and thromboembolic event rates in atrial fibrillation according to different guideline treatment thresholds: A nationwide cohort study.

Nielsen Peter Brønnum PB Larsen Torben Bjerregaard TB Skjøth Flemming F Overvad Thure Filskov TF Lip Gregory Y H GY

Scientific reports 20160606

Contemporary guidelines suggest anticoagulant treatment decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients to be based on risk stratification for stroke. However, guidelines do not agree on the threshold for treatment initiation. We explored the variation in thromboembolic event rates in a non-anticoagulated AF population, according to different guideline threshold and methodological approaches. AF patients between 1998 and 2014 free from anticoagulant treatment were identified. Event rates for isch ...[more]

PMID: 27265586

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Project description:Few data on the thromboembolic (TE) risk of paroxysmal and persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) are available. This study aimed to assess the incidence of TE events in paroxysmal and persistent AF.We performed a subset post hoc analysis of 771 patients with paroxysmal and 463 with persistent AF enrolled in the multicenter, prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled GISSI-AF trial - comparing the efficacy of valsartan versus placebo in preventing AF recurrences - where the choice of antithrombotic treatment was left to the judgment of the referring physician. TE and major outcome events were centrally validated. AF recurrences were detected by frequent clinic visits and a transtelephonic monitoring device with weekly and symptomatic transmissions.Eighty-five percent of patients had a history of hypertension, and the 7.7% had heart failure, left ventricular dysfunction, or both. The mean CHADS2 score was 1.41±0.84. TE and major bleeding events were observed at a low incidence among the overall population at 1-year follow-up (0.97% and 0.81%, respectively). The univariate and multivariable analyses revealed no statistically significant differences in the incidence of TE, major bleeding events or mortality in paroxysmal and persistent AF patients. TE events were more common among women than men (p=0.02). The follow-up examination showed under- or overtreatment with warfarin in many patients, according to guideline suggestions. Warfarin was more frequently prescribed to patients with persistent AF (p<0.0001) and patients with AF recurrences (p<0.0001). AF recurrences were noninvasively detected in 632 (51.2%) patients. In patients without AF recurrences, the TE event rate was 0.5% versus 1.74%, 1.28%, and 1.18% for those with only symptomatic, only asymptomatic or both symptomatic and asymptomatic AF recurrences, respectively, but the difference was not statistically significant, even after adjusting for warfarin treatment and the CHADS2 score (HR 2.93; CI 95%; 0.8-10.9; p=0.11).TE and major bleeding events showed a very low incidence in the GISSI-AF trial population, despite under- or overtreatment with warfarin in many patients. TE events had a similar rate in paroxysmal and persistent AF.NCT00376272.

Project description:ObjectivesOutcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with severe mental disorders are largely unknown. We compared rates of stroke, fatal thromboembolic events and bleeding in patients with AF with and without mental disorders.DesignNationwide registry-based cohort study.SettingDenmark (population 5.6 million), 2000-2015.ParticipantsPatients with AF with schizophrenia (n=534), severe depression (n=400) or bipolar disease (n=569) matched 1:5 on age, sex and calendar time to patients with AF without mental disorders.ExposureInpatient or hospital-based outpatient diagnosis of schizophrenia, severe depression or bipolar disease.Primary and secondary outcome measuresHRs for stroke, fatal thromboembolic events and major bleeding comparing patients with and without mental disorders estimated by Cox regression with sequential adjustment for risk factors for stroke and bleeding, comorbidity and initiation of oral anticoagulant therapy (OAT).ResultsCompared with matched comparisons, crude 5-year HRs of ischaemic stroke were 1.37 (95% CI 0.88 to 2.14) for schizophrenia, 1.36 (95% CI 0.89 to 2.08) for depression and 1.04 (95% CI 0.69 to 1.56) for bipolar disease. After adjusting for risk factors, comorbidity and OAT, these HRs declined towards the null. Crude HRs of fatal thromboembolic events were 3.16 (95% CI 1.78 to 5.61) for schizophrenia, 1.31 (95% CI 0.67 to 2.56) for depression and 1.53 (95% CI 0.93 to 2.53) for bipolar disease. Rates of major bleeding were increased in patients with schizophrenia (crude HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.90) and severe depression (HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.78) but not bipolar disease (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.15).ConclusionPatients with AF with schizophrenia or severe depression experienced increased rates of stroke and major bleeding compared with matched comparisons. This increase was largely explained by differences in the prevalence of risk factors for stroke and bleeding, comorbidity and initiation of OAT during follow-up. Patients with AF with schizophrenia further experienced higher mortality following thromboembolic events than matched comparisons without mental disorders.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:We compared long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with and without a secondary precipitant. DESIGN AND SETTING:Retrospective cohort study based on Danish nationwide registries. PARTICIPANTS:Patients with AF with and without secondary precipitants (1996-2015) were matched 1:1 according to age, sex, calendar year, CHA2DS2-VASc score and oral anticoagulation therapy (OAC), resulting in a cohort of 39 723 patients with AF with a secondary precipitant and the same number of patients with AF without a secondary precipitant. Secondary precipitants included alcohol intoxication, thyrotoxicosis, myocardial infarction, surgery and infection in conjunction with AF. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES:The primary outcome in this study was thromboembolic events. Secondary outcomes included AF rehospitalisation and death. Long-term risks of outcomes were examined by multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS:The most common precipitants were infection (55.0%), surgery (13.2%) and myocardial infarction (12.0%). The 5-year absolute risk of thromboembolic events (taking death into account as a competing risk) in patients with AF grouped according to secondary precipitants were 8.3% (alcohol intoxication), 8.5% (thyrotoxicosis), 12.1% (myocardial infarction), 11.6% (surgery), 12.2% (infection), 10.1% (>1 precipitant) and 12.3% (no secondary precipitant). In the multivariable analyses, AF with a secondary precipitant was associated with the same or an even higher thromboembolic risk than AF without a secondary precipitant. One exception was patients with AF and thyrotoxicosis: those not initiated on OAC therapy carried a lower thromboembolic risk the first year of follow-up than matched patients with AF without a secondary precipitant and no OAC therapy. CONCLUSIONS:In general, AF with a secondary precipitant was associated with the same thromboembolic risk as AF without a secondary precipitant. Consequently, this study highlights the need for more research regarding the long-term management of patients with AF associated with a secondary precipitant.

Dataset Information

Stroke and thromboembolic event rates in atrial fibrillation according to different guideline treatment thresholds: A nationwide cohort study.

Publications

Stroke and thromboembolic event rates in atrial fibrillation according to different guideline treatment thresholds: A nationwide cohort study.

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