Dataset Information

Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Potential Driving Factors in Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT: Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood disease with substantial disease burden in Asia. Mixed results were reported on the associations between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors or school holidays, while limited studies focused on their association on transmissibility. We aimed to measure the transmissibility of HFMD and to examine its potential driving factors in Hong Kong. A likelihood-based procedure was used to estimate time-dependent effective reproduction number (Rt) based on weekly number of HFMD-associated hospitalizations from 2010 to 2014. The associations of between-year effects, depletion of susceptibles, absolute humidity and school holidays with Rt were examined using linear regression. Rt usually started increasing between early spring and summer and peaked in April to May at around 1.1-1.2, followed by a slight rebound in autumn. Depletion of susceptibles and between-years effects explained most of the variances (19 and 13% respectively) in Rt. We found a negative association between depletion of susceptibles and Rt (coefficients ranged from -0.14 to -0.03 for different years), but the estimated effects of absolute humidity and school holidays were insignificant. Overall, HFMD transmission was moderate in Hong Kong and was mainly associated with depletion of susceptibles. Limited impact was suggested from meteorological factors and school holidays.

SUBMITTER: Yang B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4895171 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Potential Driving Factors in Hong Kong.

Yang Bingyi B Lau Eric H Y EH Wu Peng P Cowling Benjamin J BJ

Scientific reports 20160607

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood disease with substantial disease burden in Asia. Mixed results were reported on the associations between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors or school holidays, while limited studies focused on their association on transmissibility. We aimed to measure the transmissibility of HFMD and to examine its potential driving factors in Hong Kong. A likelihood-based procedure was used to estimate time-dependent effective reproduction number ( ...[more]

PMID: 27271966

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Project description:BackgroundThe transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. However, it has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China.MethodsTo understand the transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we examined the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD in three provinces, Henan, Anhui and Chongqing, in China, using a dynamical stochastic SIR model. We investigated potential driving factors, including school terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, meteorological factors and population flux for their effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality using multiple regression models.ResultsThe transmission rate of HFMD had complex seasonality with one large major peak in March and one small peak in autumn. School terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and meteorological factors had combined effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality in mainland China. The school terms reflects the seasonal contact rate in Children, while the population flux and the Chinese Spring Festival period reflect the seasonal contact rate in population. They drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year in China. Contact rate seasonality in population dominated effects on HFMD transmission in February and March. The dramatic increase in transmission rate during February coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival period and high population flux in this month. The contact rate seasonality in children dominated effects on the transmission in the other months of the year in Chongqing. Meteorological factors can not solely explain the seasonality in HFMD transmission in mainland China; however, they may have combined effects with school terms and the highway passenger traffic on the transmission rate in Anhui during the fall semester.ConclusionThe transmission rate of HFMD in three provinces in China had complex seasonality. The Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and (or) school terms explained the majority of the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD, and they drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year. The Chinese Spring Festival period dominantly caused the dramatic increase of the HFMD transmission rate during February.

Dataset Information

Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Potential Driving Factors in Hong Kong.

Publications

Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Potential Driving Factors in Hong Kong.

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