Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

0 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

The Impact of Farmers' Strategic Behavior on the Spread of Animal Infectious Diseases.

ABSTRACT: One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions.

SUBMITTER: Tago D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4907430 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

The Impact of Farmers' Strategic Behavior on the Spread of Animal Infectious Diseases.

Tago Damian D Hammitt James K JK Thomas Alban A Raboisson Didier D

PloS one 20160614 6

One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The re ...[more]

PMID: 27300368

Similar Datasets

Animal Ownership and Touching Enrich the Context of Social Contacts Relevant to the Spread of Human Infectious Diseases.

Project description:Many human infectious diseases originate from animals or are transmitted through animal vectors. We aimed to identify factors that are predictive of ownership and touching of animals, assess whether animal ownership influences social contact behavior, and estimate the probability of a major zoonotic outbreak should a transmissible influenza-like pathogen be present in animals, all in the setting of a densely populated European country. A diary-based social contact survey (n = 1768) was conducted in Flanders, Belgium, from September 2010 until February 2011. Many participants touched pets (46%), poultry (2%) or livestock (2%) on a randomly assigned day, and a large proportion of participants owned such animals (51%, 15% and 5%, respectively). Logistic regression models indicated that larger households are more likely to own an animal and, unsurprisingly, that animal owners are more likely to touch animals. We observed a significant effect of age on animal ownership and touching. The total number of social contacts during a randomly assigned day was modeled using weighted-negative binomial regression. Apart from age, household size and day type (weekend versus weekday and regular versus holiday period), animal ownership was positively associated with the total number of social contacts during the weekend. Assuming that animal ownership and/or touching are at-risk events, we demonstrate a method to estimate the outbreak potential of zoonoses. We show that in Belgium animal-human interactions involving young children (0-9 years) and adults (25-54 years) have the highest potential to cause a major zoonotic outbreak.

| S-EPMC4508096 | biostudies-literature

Accounting for farmers' control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade.

Project description:Accounting for individual decisions in mechanistic epidemiological models remains a challenge, especially for unregulated endemic animal diseases for which control is not compulsory. We propose a new integrative model by combining two sub-models. The first one for the dynamics of a livestock epidemic on a metapopulation network, grounded on demographic and animal trade data. The second one for farmers' behavior regarding the adoption of a control measure against the disease spread in their herd. The measure is specified as a protective vaccine with given economic implications, and the model is numerically studied through intensive simulations and sensitivity analyses. While each tested parameter of the model has an impact on the overall model behavior, the most important factor in farmers' decisions is their frequency, as this factor explained almost 30% of the variation in decision-related outputs of the model. Indeed, updating frequently local health information impacts positively vaccination, and limits strongly the propagation of the pathogen. Our study is relevant for the understanding of the interplay between decision-related human behavior and livestock epidemic dynamics. The model can be used for other structures of epidemic models or different interventions, by adapting its components.

| S-EPMC8100180 | biostudies-literature

Revisiting the standard for modeling the spread of infectious diseases.

Project description:The COVID-19 epidemic brought to the forefront the value of mathematical modelling for infectious diseases as a guide to help manage a formidable challenge for human health. A standard dynamic model widely used for a spreading epidemic separates a population into compartments-each comprising individuals at a similar stage before, during, or after infection-and keeps track of the population fraction in each compartment over time, by balancing compartment loading, discharge, and accumulation rates. The standard model provides valuable insight into when an epidemic spreads or what fraction of a population will have been infected by the epidemic's end. A subtle issue, however, with that model, is that it may misrepresent the peak of the infectious fraction of a population, the time to reach that peak, or the rate at which an epidemic spreads. This may compromise the model's usability for tasks such as "Flattening the Curve" or other interventions for epidemic management. Here we develop an extension of the standard model's structure, which retains the simplicity and insights of the standard model while avoiding the misrepresentation issues mentioned above. The proposed model relies on replacing a module of the standard model by a module resulting from Padé approximation in the Laplace domain. The Padé-approximation module would also be suitable for incorporation in the wide array of standard model variants used in epidemiology. This warrants a re-examination of the subject and could potentially impact model-based management of epidemics, development of software tools for practicing epidemiologists, and related educational resources.

| S-EPMC9056532 | biostudies-literature

A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region.

Project description:In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town's place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy and intervention strategies such as school closure policies.

| S-EPMC7246727 | biostudies-literature

Landscape of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in China: impact of ecology, climate, and behavior.

Project description:For the past several decades, the infectious disease profile in China has been shifting with rapid developments in social and economic aspects, environment, quality of food, water, housing, and public health infrastructure. Notably, 5 notifiable infectious diseases have been almost eradicated, and the incidence of 18 additional notifiable infectious diseases has been significantly reduced. Unexpectedly, the incidence of over 10 notifiable infectious diseases, including HIV, brucellosis, syphilis, and dengue fever, has been increasing. Nevertheless, frequent infectious disease outbreaks/events have been reported almost every year, and imported infectious diseases have increased since 2015. New pathogens and over 100 new genotypes or serotypes of known pathogens have been identified. Some infectious diseases seem to be exacerbated by various factors, including rapid urbanization, large numbers of migrant workers, changes in climate, ecology, and policies, such as returning farmland to forests. This review summarizes the current experiences and lessons from China in managing emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, especially the effects of ecology, climate, and behavior, which should have merits in helping other countries to control and prevent infectious diseases.

| S-EPMC7089168 | biostudies-literature

Live animal markets: Identifying the origins of emerging infectious diseases.

Project description:Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) of zoonotic origin appear, affect a population and can spread rapidly. At the beginning of 2020, the World Health Organization pronounced an emergency public health advisory because of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus outbreak, and declared that COVID-19 had reached the level of a pandemic, rapidly spreading around the world. In order to identify one of the origins of EIDs, and propose some control alternatives, an extensive review was conducted of the available literature. The problem can originate in live animal markets, where animal species of all kinds, from different origins, ecosystems, and taxonomic groups are caged and crowded together, sharing the same unsanitary and unnatural space, food, water, and also the ecto- and endoparasitic vectors of disease. They defecate on each other, leading to the exchange of pathogenic and parasitic microorganisms, forcing interactions among species that should never happen. This is the ideal scenario for causing zoonoses and outbreaks of EIDs. We must start by stopping the illegal collection and sale of wild animals in markets. The destruction of ecosystems and forests also promote zoonoses and outbreaks of EIDs. Science and knowledge should be the basis of the decisions and policies for the development of management strategies. Wildlife belongs in its natural habitat, which must be defended, conserved, and restored at all costs.

| S-EPMC8674032 | biostudies-literature

Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases.

Project description:BackgroundMathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology.Methods and findings7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.

| S-EPMC2270306 | biostudies-literature

A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach for predicting the spread of infectious diseases.

Project description:In this paper, a simple yet interpretable, probabilistic model is proposed for the prediction of reported case counts of infectious diseases. A spatio-temporal kernel is derived from training data to capture the typical interaction effects of reported infections across time and space, which provides insight into the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases. Testing the model on a one-week-ahead prediction task for campylobacteriosis and rotavirus infections across Germany, as well as Lyme borreliosis across the federal state of Bavaria, shows that the proposed model performs on-par with the state-of-the-art hhh4 model. However, it provides a full posterior distribution over parameters in addition to model predictions, which aides in the assessment of the model. The employed Bayesian Monte Carlo regression framework is easily extensible and allows for incorporating prior domain knowledge, which makes it suitable for use on limited, yet complex datasets as often encountered in epidemiology.

| S-EPMC6919583 | biostudies-literature

A Universal Influenza Vaccine: The Strategic Plan for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Project description:A priority for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is development of a universal influenza vaccine providing durable protection against multiple influenza strains. NIAID will use this strategic plan as a foundation for future investments in influenza research.

| S-EPMC6279170 | biostudies-literature

Web monitoring of emerging animal infectious diseases integrated in the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System.

Project description:Since 2013, the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System (in French: Veille Sanitaire Internationale, VSI) has been monitoring signals of the emergence of new and exotic animal infectious diseases worldwide. Once detected, the VSI team verifies the signals and issues early warning reports to French animal health authorities when potential threats to France are detected. To improve detection of signals from online news sources, we designed the Platform for Automated extraction of Disease Information from the web (PADI-web). PADI-web automatically collects, processes and extracts English-language epidemiological information from Google News. The core component of PADI-web is a combined information extraction (IE) method founded on rule-based systems and data mining techniques. The IE approach allows extraction of key information on diseases, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases mentioned in the news. We evaluated the combined method for IE on a dataset of 352 disease-related news reports mentioning the diseases involved, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases. The combined method for IE accurately identified (F-score) 95% of the diseases and hosts, respectively, 85% of the number of cases, 83% of dates and 80% of locations from the disease-related news. We assessed the sensitivity of PADI-web to detect primary outbreaks of four emerging animal infectious diseases notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). From January to June 2016, PADI-web detected signals for 64% of all primary outbreaks of African swine fever, 53% of avian influenza, 25% of bluetongue and 19% of foot-and-mouth disease. PADI-web timely detected primary outbreaks of avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, i.e. they were detected 8 and 3 days before immediate notification to OIE, respectively.

| S-EPMC6075742 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data