Dataset Information

Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection.

ABSTRACT: Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through screening can improve outcomes. However, HCC surveillance remains costly, cumbersome and suboptimal. We tested whether and how serum Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) should be used in HCC surveillance. Record linkage, dedicated pathways for management and AFP data-storage identified i) consecutive highly characterised cases of HCC diagnosed in 2009-14 and ii) a cohort of ongoing HCC-free patients undergoing regular HCC surveillance from 2009. These two well-defined Scottish patient cohorts enabled us to test the utility of AFP surveillance. Of 304 cases of HCC diagnosed over 6 years, 42% (129) were identified by a dedicated HCC surveillance programme. Of these 129, 47% (61) had a detectable lesion first identified by screening ultrasound (US) but 38% (49) were prompted by elevated AFP. Despite pre-HCC diagnosis AFP >20kU/L being associated with poor outcome, 'AFP-detected' tumours were offered potentially curative management as frequently as 'US-detected' HCCs; and had comparable survival. Linearity of serial log10-transformed AFPs in HCC cases and in the screening 'HCC-free' cohort (n = 1509) provided indicators of high-risk AFP behaviour in HCC cases. An algorithm was devised in static mode, then tested dynamically. A case/control series in hepatitis C related disease demonstrated highly significant detection (p<1.72*10-5) of patients at high risk of developing HCC. These data support the use of AFP in HCC surveillance. We show proof-of-principle that an automated and further refine-able algorithmic interpretation of AFP can identify patients at higher risk of HCC. This approach could provide a cost-effective, user-friendly and much needed addition to US surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Bird TG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4911090 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection.

Bird Thomas G TG Dimitropoulou Polyxeni P Turner Rebecca M RM Jenks Sara J SJ Cusack Pearce P Hey Shiying S Blunsum Andrew A Kelly Sarah S Sturgeon Catharine C Hayes Peter C PC Bird Sheila M SM

PloS one 20160616 6

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through screening can improve outcomes. However, HCC surveillance remains costly, cumbersome and suboptimal. We tested whether and how serum Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) should be used in HCC surveillance. Record linkage, dedicated pathways for management and AFP data-storage identified i) consecutive highly characterised cases of HCC diagnosed in 2009-14 and ii) a cohort of ongoing HCC-free patients undergoing regular HCC surveillance from 2009. These two ...[more]

PMID: 27308823

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has become a pressing health problem facing the world today due to its high morbidity, high mortality, and late discovery. As a diagnostic criteria of HCC, the exact threshold of Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is controversial. Therefore, this study was aimed to systematically estimate the performance of AFP in diagnosing HCC and to clarify its optimal threshold. METHODS:Medline and Embase databases were searched for articles indexed up to November 2019. English language studies were included if both the sensitivity and specificity of AFP in the diagnosis of HCC were provided. The basic information and accuracy data included in the studies were extracted. Combined estimates for sensitivity and specificity were statistically analyzed by random-effects model using MetaDisc 1.4 and Stata 15.0 software at the prespecified threshold of 400 ng/mL, 200 ng/mL, and the range of 20-100 ng/mL. The optimal threshold was evaluated by the area under curve (AUC) of the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC). RESULTS:We retrieved 29,828 articles and included 59 studies and 1 review with a total of 11,731 HCC cases confirmed by histomorphology and 21,972 control cases without HCC. The included studies showed an overall judgment of at risk of bias. Four studies with AFP threshold of 400 ng/mL showed the summary sensitivity and specificity of 0.32 (95%CI 0.31-0.34) and 0.99 (95%CI 0.98-0.99), respectively. Four studies with AFP threshold of 200 ng/mL showed the summary sensitivity and specificity of 0.49 (95%CI 0.47-0.50) and 0.98 (95%CI 0.97-0.99), respectively. Forty-six studies with AFP threshold of 20-100 ng/mL showed the summary sensitivity and specificity of 0.61 (95%CI 0.60-0.62) and 0.86 (95%CI 0.86-0.87), respectively. The AUC of SROC and Q index of 400 ng/mL threshold were 0.9368 and 0.8734, respectively, which were significantly higher than those in 200 ng/mL threshold (0.9311 and 0.8664, respectively) and higher than those in 20-100 ng/mL threshold (0.8330 and 0.7654, respectively). Furthermore, similar result that favored 400 ng/mL were shown in the threshold in terms of AFP combined with ultrasound. CONCLUSION:AFP levels in serum showed good accuracy in HCC diagnosis, and the threshold of AFP with 400 ng/mL was better than that of 200 ng/mL in terms of sensitivity and specificity no matter AFP is used alone or combined with ultrasound.

Project description:Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide. Novel prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to improve patient management. Alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP) is a well‐established and widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, diagnostic accuracy of static AFP values is limited and the clinical potential is a matter of ongoing scientific discussion. Objective We here evaluated the prognostic impact of pretreatment static and dynamic AFP variables on overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in a Western cohort. Methods Patients with confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 809) treated at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz between 1998 and 2014 and two available pretreatment AFP‐values (AFP‐slope) were retrospectively analysed. Clinicopathological baseline parameters, pretreatment static values and AFP‐slope were assessed. Prognostic impact was determined by Kaplan–Meier analyses and Cox regression models. Results High static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy were associated with reduced survival rates of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Several known clinical parameters such as Child–Pugh B (p < 0.01) and C stage (p < 0.001), portal vein thrombosis (p < 0.001) and extrahepatic spread (p < 0.001) were confirmed as independent predictors for overall survival. Addition of static and/or dynamic AFP variable resulted in higher time‐dependent area under the curves. Notably, in patients with more favourable prognosis, AFP‐slope prior to therapy was a slightly stronger predictor for overall survival compared with static AFP values. Conclusion Static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy are predictive for overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Addition of AFP‐slope to established prognostic parameters might improve prognostic classification for a subgroup of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with preserved liver function and without portal vein tumour thrombosis. Key Summary Alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP) is the most commonly used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), but accuracy of static and dynamic AFP values is limited and the prognostic significance is under debate. High static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy are associated with reduced survival rates of HCC patients across different tumour stages and treatment modalities. In patients with more favourable prognosis, AFP‐slope prior to therapy was a better predictor for overall survival in comparison with static AFP values. Addition of AFP‐slope to established prognostic parameters might improve prognostic classification for a subgroup of HCC.

Project description:Background & aimsUltrasound (US)-based screening has been recommended for patients with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). US analysis, however, is limited in patients who are obese or have small tumors. The addition of serum level of α-fetoprotein (AFP) measurements to US analysis can increase detection of HCC. We analyzed data from patients with chronic liver disease, collected over 15 years in an HCC surveillance program, to develop a model to assess risk of HCC.MethodsWe collected data from 3450 patients with chronic liver disease undergoing US surveillance in Japan from March 1998 through April 2014, and followed them up for a median of 8.83 years. We performed longitudinal discriminant analysis of serial AFP measurements (median number of observations/patient, 56; approximately every 3 months) to develop a model to determine the risk of HCC. We validated the model using data from 2 cohorts of patients with chronic liver disease in Japan (404 and 2754 patients) and 1 cohort in Scotland (1596 patients).ResultsHCC was detected in 413 patients (median tumor diameter, 1.8 cm), during a median follow-up time of 6.60 years. In the development data set, the model identified patients who developed HCC with an area under the curve of 0.78; it correctly identified 74.3% of patients who did develop HCC, and 72.9% of patients who did not. Overall, 73.1% of patients were classified correctly. The model could be used to assign patients to a high-risk group (27.5 HCCs/1000 patient-years) vs a low-risk group (4.9 HCCs/1000 patient-years). A similar performance was observed when the model was used to assess patients with cirrhosis. Analysis of the validation cohorts produced similar results.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a model to identify patients with chronic liver disease who are at risk for HCC based on change in serum AFP level over time. The model could be used to assign patients to high-risk vs low-risk groups, and might be used to select patients for surveillance.

Dataset Information

Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection.

Publications

Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection.

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