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Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization.

ABSTRACT: Public health surveillance systems are important for tracking disease dynamics. In recent years, social and real-time digital data sources have provided new means of studying disease transmission. Such affordable and accessible data have the potential to offer new insights into disease epidemiology at national and international scales. We used the extensive information repository Google Trends to examine the digital epidemiology of a common childhood disease, chicken pox, caused by varicella zoster virus (VZV), over an 11-y period. We (i) report robust seasonal information-seeking behavior for chicken pox using Google data from 36 countries, (ii) validate Google data using clinical chicken pox cases, (iii) demonstrate that Google data can be used to identify recurrent seasonal outbreaks and forecast their magnitude and seasonal timing, and (iv) reveal that VZV immunization significantly dampened seasonal cycles in information-seeking behavior. Our findings provide strong evidence that VZV transmission is seasonal and that seasonal peaks show remarkable latitudinal variation. We attribute the dampened seasonal cycles in chicken pox information-seeking behavior to VZV vaccine-induced reduction of seasonal transmission. These data and the methodological approaches provide a way to track the global burden of childhood disease and illustrate population-level effects of immunization. The global latitudinal patterns in outbreak seasonality could direct future studies of environmental and physiological drivers of disease transmission.

SUBMITTER: Bakker KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4914188 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization.

Bakker Kevin M KM Martinez-Bakker Micaela Elvira ME Helm Barbara B Stevenson Tyler J TJ

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20160531 24

Public health surveillance systems are important for tracking disease dynamics. In recent years, social and real-time digital data sources have provided new means of studying disease transmission. Such affordable and accessible data have the potential to offer new insights into disease epidemiology at national and international scales. We used the extensive information repository Google Trends to examine the digital epidemiology of a common childhood disease, chicken pox, caused by varicella zos ...[more]

PMID: 27247405

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide.MethodsData from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique.ResultsA defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period.ConclusionUsing the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics.

Project description:BackgroundPCV7 was introduced as universal childhood vaccination in Israel in July 2009 and PCV13 in November 2010. Here we report data on adult invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), two years post PCV7 implementation and before an expected effect of PCV13.MethodsAn ongoing nationwide active-surveillance (all 27 laboratories performing blood cultures in Israel), providing all blood & CSF S. pneumoniae isolates from persons >18 y was initiated in July 2009. Capture-recapture method assured reporting of >95% cases. All isolates were serotyped in one central laboratory. IPD outcome and medical history were recorded in 90%. Second year post PCV implementation is compared to the first year.ResultsDuring July 2009 to June 2011, 970 IPD cases were reported (annual incidence [/100,000] of 9.17 and 10.16 in the two consecutive years, respectively). Respective case fatality rates (CFRs) were 20% and 19.1%. Incidence of IPD and CFR increased with age and number of comorbidities. Incidence rate was significantly greater during the second winter, 7.79/100,000 vs. 6.14/100,000 in first winter, p = 0.004, with a non-significant decrease during summer months (3.02 to 2.48/100,000). The proportion of IPD cases due to PCV7-serotypes decreased from 27.5% to 13.1% (first to second year) (p<0.001). Yet, non-PCV13-strains increased from 32.7% to 40.2% (p = 0.017). The increase in non-PCV13-strains was highly significant in immunocompromised patients and to a lesser degree in non-immunocompromised at risk or in older patients (>64 y). Among younger/healthier patients serotype 5 was the major increasing serotype. Penicillin and ceftriaxone resistance decreased significantly in the second year.ConclusionsWhile overall annual incidence of IPD did not change, the indirect effect of PCV7 vaccination was evident by the significant decrease in PCV7 serotypes across all age groups. Increase in non-VT13 strains was significant in immunocompromised patients. A longer follow-up is required to appreciate the full effect of infant vaccination on annual IPD.

Dataset Information

Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization.

Publications

Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization.

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