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Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes.


ABSTRACT: Modelling the spatial spread of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens maintained in enzootic transmission cycles remains a major challenge. The best available spatio-temporal data on pathogen spread often take the form of human disease surveillance data. By applying a classic ecological approach-occupancy modelling-to an epidemiological question of disease spread, we used surveillance data to examine the latent ecological invasion of tick-borne pathogens. Over the last half-century, previously undescribed tick-borne pathogens including the agents of Lyme disease and human babesiosis have rapidly spread across the northeast United States. Despite their epidemiological importance, the mechanisms of tick-borne pathogen invasion and drivers underlying the distinct invasion trajectories of the co-vectored pathogens remain unresolved. Our approach allowed us to estimate the unobserved ecological processes underlying pathogen spread while accounting for imperfect detection of human cases. Our model predicts that tick-borne diseases spread in a diffusion-like manner with occasional long-distance dispersal and that babesiosis spread exhibits strong dependence on Lyme disease.

SUBMITTER: Walter KS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4920326 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes.

Walter Katharine S KS   Pepin Kim M KM   Webb Colleen T CT   Gaff Holly D HD   Krause Peter J PJ   Pitzer Virginia E VE   Diuk-Wasser Maria A MA  

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20160601 1832


Modelling the spatial spread of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens maintained in enzootic transmission cycles remains a major challenge. The best available spatio-temporal data on pathogen spread often take the form of human disease surveillance data. By applying a classic ecological approach-occupancy modelling-to an epidemiological question of disease spread, we used surveillance data to examine the latent ecological invasion of tick-borne pathogens. Over the last half-century, previously undescr  ...[more]

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