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Cardiovascular disease risk by assigned treatment using the 2013 and 1998 obesity guidelines.

ABSTRACT: The 1998 and the 2013 guidelines on management of overweight and obesity in adults provided algorithms for identification of patients to be treated with weight loss. To date, the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the groups recommended or not recommended for weight loss treatment has not been estimated and compared.Baseline data for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study were collected between 1987 and 1989 from adults aged 45 to 64 years. Black and White men and women free of CVD were followed over 22.8 years (median), and 2,907 incident CVD events were recorded.The hazard ratios adjusted for demographic variables in adults not recommended for treatment versus adults recommended for treatment were 0.54 (95% CI: 0.50-0.59) for the 1998 algorithm and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.58-0.69) for the 2013 algorithm, respectively. No gender or race differences were detected when the 2013 algorithm was applied, but using the 1998 algorithm, CVD risk between the groups recommended or not recommended for treatment was more pronounced in Black women than in Black men.The 2013 algorithm performed similarly in Black and White men and women but did not improve upon the 1998 algorithm in terms of discriminating risk of CVD.

SUBMITTER: Stevens J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4925187 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cardiovascular disease risk by assigned treatment using the 2013 and 1998 obesity guidelines.

Stevens June J Erber-Oakkar Eva E Cui Zhaohui Z Cai Jianwen J Virani Salim S SS Di Angelantonio Emanuele E Wormser David D

Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) 20160517 7

<h4>Objective</h4>The 1998 and the 2013 guidelines on management of overweight and obesity in adults provided algorithms for identification of patients to be treated with weight loss. To date, the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the groups recommended or not recommended for weight loss treatment has not been estimated and compared.<h4>Methods</h4>Baseline data for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study were collected between 1987 and 1989 from adults aged 45 to 64 years. Black and Wh ...[more]

PMID: 27184463

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Project description:BackgroundThe recent guidelines for preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular events are an important advancement. For primary prevention, statins are recommended if the ten-year risk is ≥ 5% (consideration for therapy) or ≥ 7.5% (definitive treatment unless contraindication after discussion). We rationalized that a significant cohort with ten-year risk below the treatment thresholds would predictably surpass them within the recommended 4-6 year window for reassessing the ten-year risk. As atherosclerosis is a progressive disease, these individuals may therefore benefit with more aggressive therapies even at baseline.Methods and findingsWe used publicly available NHANES dataset for ten-year risk calculation. There were 1805 participants. To evaluate the ten-year risk change at five years, we considered two scenarios: no change in the baseline parameters except increased age by five (No Change) and alternatively 10% improvement in systolic BP, total and HDL-c, no smoking with five-year increase in age (Reduced Risk Profile). Amongst non-diabetics with <5% risk at baseline, 35% reached or exceeded 5% risk in five years (5% reached or exceed the 7.5% risk) with No Change and 9% reached or exceeded 5% risk in five years (none reached 7.5% risk) with Reduced Risk Profile; furthermore, 94% of the non-diabetic cohort with baseline risk between 3.5%-5% would exceed the 5% and/or 7.5% boundary limit with No Change. Amongst non-diabetics with 5-7.5% baseline risks, 87% reached or exceeded 7.5% with No Change while 30% reached or exceeded 7.5% risk with Reduced Risk Profile.ConclusionsA significant population cohort at levels below the treatment thresholds will predictably exceed these limits with time with or without improvement in modifiable risk factors and may benefit with more aggressive therapy at baseline. We provide an improved risk calculator that allows for integrating expected risk modification into discussion with an individual. This needs to be prospectively tested in clinical trials.

Project description:ObjectiveThe aim was to examine the association between hospital-diagnosed overweight/obesity and incident CVD according to the time period of the overweight/obesity diagnosis.DesignThis is a cohort study.MethodsFrom Danish national health registries, we identified all residents with a first-time hospital-based overweight/obesity diagnosis code, 1977-2018 (n = 195,221), and an age and sex-matched general population comparison cohort (n = 1,952,210). We computed adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox regression. We adjusted for comorbidities and educational level and applied 10 years of follow-up.ResultsThe overall incidence rate was 10.1 (95% CI 10.0-10.1) per 1000 person-years for the comparison cohort and 25.1 (95% CI 24.8-25.4) per 1000 person-years for the overweight/obesity cohort, corresponding to an aHR of 2.5 (95% CI 2.4-2.5). The aHR was elevated for all subtypes of CVD: heart failure: 3.9 (95% CI 3.7-4.1), bradyarrhythmia: 2.9 (95% CI 2.7-3.1), angina pectoris: 2.7 (95% CI 2.7-2.8), atrial fibrillation or flutter: 2.6 (95% CI 2.5-2.6), acute myocardial infarction: 2.4 (95% CI 2.3-2.4), revascularization procedure: 2.4 (95% CI 2.2-2.5), valvular heart disease: 1.7 (95% CI 1.6-1.8), ischemic stroke: 1.6 (95% CI 1.4-1.7), transient ischemic attack: 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.7), and cardiovascular death: 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.6). The 1-10-year aHR of any CVD associated with an overweight/obesity diagnosis decreased from 2.8 (95% CI 2.7-2.9) in 1977-1987 to 1.8 (95% CI 1.8-1.9) in 2008-2018.ConclusionPatients with hospital-diagnosed overweight/obesity had high rates of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, structural heart disease, arrhythmia, stroke, and death, although the strength of the association decreased in recent years.Significance statementObesity is linked to metabolic abnormalities that predispose individuals to an increased risk of subtypes of CVD. In this population-based nationwide 40-year cohort study, we found that of 195,221 patients with an overweight/obesity diagnosis, more than 31,000 (15.9%) were admitted to hospital within 10 years because of CVD; corresponding to a 2.5-fold greater relative risk of any CVD associated with overweight/obesity than in the general population. We observed an increased risk for most CVD subtypes, including ischemic heart disease, heart failure, structural heart disease, arrhythmia, stroke, and cardiovascular death, although the strength of the association decreased in recent years. Our study emphasizes the importance of improved clinical handling of obesity and underscores the need to prevent associated complications to alleviate the burden of obesity.

Dataset Information

Cardiovascular disease risk by assigned treatment using the 2013 and 1998 obesity guidelines.

Publications

Cardiovascular disease risk by assigned treatment using the 2013 and 1998 obesity guidelines.

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