Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Guinat C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4928095 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health.
| S-EPMC4942603 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As public health agencies struggle to track and contain emerging arbovirus threats, timely and efficient surveillance is more critical than ever. Using historical dengue data from Puerto Rico, we developed methods for streamlining and designing novel arbovirus surveillance systems with or without historical disease data.
| S-EPMC5367434 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Scanning surveillance facilitates the monitoring of many endemic diseases of livestock in Great Britain, including sheep scab, an ectoparasitic disease of major welfare and economic burden. There is, however, a drive to improve the cost-effectiveness of animal health surveillance, for example by thoroughly exploiting existing data sources. By analysing the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) database, this study aimed to enhance the use of existing scanning surveillance data for sheep scab to identify current trends, highlighting geographical "hotspots" for targeted disease control measures, and identifying a denominator to aid the interpretation of the diagnostic count data. Furthermore, this study collated and assessed the impact of past targeted disease control initiatives using a temporal aberration detection algorithm, the Farrington algorithm, to provide an evidence base towards developing cost-effective disease control strategies. A total of 2,401 positive skin scrapes were recorded from 2003 to 2018. A statistically significant decline in the number of positive skin scrapes diagnosed (p < 0.001) occurred across the study period, and significant clustering was observed in Wales, with a maximum of 47 positive scrapes in Ceredigion in 2007. Scheduled ectoparasite tests was also identified as a potential denominator for the interpretation of positive scrapes by stakeholders. Across the study period, 11 national disease control initiatives occurred: four in Wales, three in England, and four in Scotland. The majority (n = 8) offered free diagnostic testing while the remainder involved knowledge transfer either combined with free testing or skills training and the introduction of the Sheep Scab (Scotland) Order 2010. The Farrington algorithm raised 20 alarms of which 11 occurred within a period of free testing in Wales and one following the introduction of the Sheep Scab (Scotland) Order 2010. In summary, our analysis of the VIDA database has greatly enhanced our knowledge of sheep scab in Great Britain, firstly by identifying areas for targeted action and secondly by offering a framework to measure the impact of future disease control initiatives. Importantly this framework could be applied to inform future strategies for the control of other endemic diseases.
| S-EPMC8322841 | biostudies-literature
Project description:China's pork industry has been dramatically changing in the last few years. Pork imports are increasing, and small-scale farms are being consolidated into large-scale multi-site facilities. These industry changes increase the need for traceability and science-based decisions around disease monitoring, surveillance, risk mitigation, and outbreak response. This study evaluated the network structure and dynamics of a typical large-scale multi-site swine facility in China, as well as the implications for disease spread using network-based metrics. Forward reachability paths were used to demonstrate the extent of epidemic spread under variable site and temporal disease introductions. Swine movements were found to be seasonal, with more movements at the beginning of the year, and fewer movements of larger pigs later in the year. The network was highly egocentric, with those farms within the evaluated production system demonstrating high connectivity. Those farms which would contribute the highest epidemic potential were identified. Among these, different farms contributed to higher expected epidemic spread at different times of the year. Using these approaches, increased availability of swine movement networks in China could help to identify priority locations for surveillance and risk mitigation for both endemic problems and transboundary diseases such as the recently introduced, and rapidly spreading, African swine fever virus.
| S-EPMC7198701 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Public policy and academic debates regarding pandemic control strategies note disease-economy trade-offs, often prioritizing one outcome over the other. Using a calibrated, coupled epi-economic model of individual behavior embedded within the broader economy during a novel epidemic, we show that targeted isolation strategies can avert up to 91% of economic losses relative to voluntary isolation strategies. Unlike widely-used blanket lockdowns, economic savings of targeted isolation do not impose additional disease burdens, avoiding disease-economy trade-offs. Targeted isolation achieves this by addressing the fundamental coordination failure between infectious and susceptible individuals that drives the recession. Importantly, we show testing and compliance frictions can erode some of the gains from targeted isolation, but improving test quality unlocks the majority of the benefits of targeted isolation.
| S-EPMC9178341 | biostudies-literature
Project description:It is estimated that 190 million individuals are at risk of blindness from trachoma, and that control by mass drug administration (MDA) is reducing this risk in many populations. Programs are monitored using prevalence of follicular trachoma disease (TF) in children. However, as programs progress to low prevalence there are challenges interpreting this indirect measure of infection. PCR and sero-surveillance are being considered as complementary tools to monitor low-level transmission, but there are questions on how they can be most effectively used. We use a previously-published, mathematical model to explore the dynamic relationship between TF and PCR throughout a control program and a sero-catalytic model to evaluate the utility of two cross-sectional sero-surveys for estimating sero-conversion rates. The simulations show that whilst PCR is more sensitive than TF at detecting infection, the probability of detecting at least one positive individual declines during an MDA program more quickly for PCR than for TF (for the same sample size). Towards the end of a program there is a moderate chance of a random sample showing both low PCR prevalence and higher TF prevalence, which may contribute to the lack of correlation observed in epidemiological studies. We also show that conducting two cross-sectional sero-surveys 10 years apart can provide more precise and accurate estimation of epidemiological parameters than a single survey, supporting previous findings that whilst serology holds great promise, multiple cross-sections from the same community are needed to generate the most valuable information about transmission. These results highlight that the quantitative dynamics of infection and disease should be included alongside the many logistical and practical factors to be considered in designing a monitoring and evaluation strategy at the operational research level, in order to help subsequently inform data collection for individual country programs. Whilst our simulations provide some insight, they also highlight that some level of longitudinal, individual-level data on reinfection and disease may be needed to monitor elimination progress.
| S-EPMC6181273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Live pig trade patterns, drivers and characteristics, particularly in backyard predominant systems, remain largely unexplored despite their important contribution to the spread of infectious diseases in the swine industry. A better understanding of the pig trade dynamics can inform the implementation of risk-based and more cost-effective prevention and control programs for swine diseases. In this study, a semi-structured questionnaire elaborated by FAO and implemented to 487 farmers was used to collect data regarding basic characteristics about pig demographics and live-pig trade among villages in the country of Georgia, where very scarce information is available. Social network analysis and exponential random graph models were used to better understand the structure, contact patterns and main drivers for pig trade in the country. Results indicate relatively infrequent (a total of 599 shipments in one year) and geographically localized (median Euclidean distance between shipments = 6.08 km; IQR = 0-13.88 km) pig movements in the studied regions. The main factors contributing to live-pig trade movements among villages were being from the same region (i.e., local trade), usage of a middleman or a live animal market to trade live pigs by at least one farmer in the village, and having a large number of pig farmers in the village. The identified villages' characteristics and structural network properties could be used to inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance systems in a country which pig industry was recently devastated by African swine fever epidemics and where backyard production systems are predominant.
| S-EPMC5466301 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Daily patterns in the foraging behaviour of birds are assumed to balance the counteracting risks of predation and starvation. Predation risks are a function of the influence of weight on flight performance and foraging behaviours that may expose individuals to predators. Although recent research sheds light on daily patterns in weight gain, little data exist on daily foraging routines in free-living birds. In order to test the predictions of various hypotheses about daily patterns of foraging, we quantified the activity of four species of passerines in winter using radio-frequency identification receivers built into supplemental feeding stations. From records of 472,368 feeder visits by tagged birds, we found that birds generally started to feed before sunrise and continued to forage at a steady to increasing rate throughout the day. Foraging in most species terminated well before sunset, suggesting their required level of energy reserves was being reached before the end of the day. These results support the risk-spreading theorem over a long-standing hypothesis predicting bimodality in foraging behaviour purportedly driven by a trade-off between the risks of starvation and predation. Given the increased energetic demands experienced by birds during colder weather, our results suggest that birds' perceptions of risk are biased towards starvation avoidance in winter.
| S-EPMC3652453 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: The widespread use of accessible peripheral tissues for epigenetic analyses has prompted increasing interest in the study of tissue-specific DNA methylation (DNAm) variation in human populations. To date, characterizations of inter-individual DNAm variability and DNAm concordance across tissues have been largely performed in adult tissues and therefore are limited in their relevance to DNAm profiles from pediatric samples. Given that DNAm patterns in early life undergo rapid changes and have been linked to a wide range of health outcomes and environmental exposures, direct investigations of tissue-specific DNAm variation in pediatric samples may help inform the design and interpretation of DNAm analyses from early life cohorts. In this study, we present a systematic comparison of genome-wide DNAm patterns between matched pediatric buccal epithelial cells (BECs) and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), two of the most widely used peripheral tissues in human epigenetic studies. Specifically, we assessed DNAm variability, cross-tissue DNAm concordance and genetic determinants of DNAm across two independent early life cohorts encompassing different ages. Results: BECs had greater inter-individual DNAm variability compared to PBMCs and highly variable CpGs were more likely to be positively correlated between the matched tissues compared to less variable CpGs. These sites were enriched for CpGs under genetic influence, suggesting that a substantial proportion of DNAm co-variation between tissues can be attributed to genetic variation. Finally, we demonstrated the relevance of our findings to human epigenetic studies by categorizing CpGs from published DNAm association studies of pediatric BECs and peripheral blood. Conclusions: Taken together, our results highlight a number of important considerations and practical implications in the design and interpretation of EWAS analyses performed in pediatric peripheral tissues.
2018-12-27 | GSE124366 | GEO
Project description:This study used social network analysis to investigate the indirect contact network between counties through the movement of live pigs through four wholesale live pig markets in Guangdong Province, China. All 14,118 trade records for January and June 2016 were collected from the markets and the patterns of pig trade in these markets analysed. Maps were developed to show the movement pathways. Evaluating the network between source counties was the primary objective of this study. A 1-mode network was developed. Characteristics of the trading network were explored, and the degree, betweenness and closeness were calculated for each source county. Models were developed to compare the impacts of different disease control strategies on the potential magnitude of an epidemic spreading through this network. The results show that pigs from 151 counties were delivered to the four wholesale live pig markets in January and/or June 2016. More batches (truckloads of pigs sourced from one or more piggeries) were traded in these markets in January (8,001) than in June 2016 (6,117). The pigs were predominantly sourced from counties inside Guangdong Province (90%), along with counties in Hunan, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian and Henan provinces. The major source counties (46 in total) contributed 94% of the total batches during the two-month study period. Pigs were sourced from piggeries located 10 to 1,417 km from the markets. The distribution of the nodes' degrees in both January and June indicates a free-scale network property, and the network in January had a higher clustering coefficient (0.54 vs. 0.39) and a shorter average pathway length (1.91 vs. 2.06) than that in June. The most connected counties of the network were in the central, northern and western regions of Guangdong Province. Compared with randomly removing counties from the network, eliminating counties with higher betweenness, degree or closeness resulted in a greater reduction of the magnitude of a potential epidemic. The findings of this study can be used to inform targeted control interventions for disease spread through this live pig market trade network in south China.
| S-EPMC7228257 | biostudies-literature