Dataset Information

Increasing Incidence of Herpes Zoster Over a 60-year Period From a Population-based Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Temporal increases in the incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) have been reported but studies have examined short study periods, and the cause of the increase remains unknown. We examined the long-term trend of HZ.

Methods

A population-based cohort study was conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota, using data from 1945-1960 and 1980-2007. Medical records review of possible cases was performed to confirm incident cases of HZ, the patient's immune status, and prescribing of antivirals for HZ. We examined the relative change in the temporal trend in the incidence rates before and after the introduction of the varicella vaccination program.

Results

Of the 8017 patients with HZ, 58.7% were females and 6.6% were immunocompromised. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate of HZ increased from 0.76 per 1000 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], .63-.89) in 1945-1949 to 3.15 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 3.04-3.26) in 2000-2007. The rate of increase across the time period was 2.5% per year after adjusting for age and sex (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.025 [95% CI, 1.023-1.026]; P < .001). The incidence of HZ significantly increased among all age groups and both sexes. We found no change in the rate of increase before vs after the introduction of the varicella vaccination program.

Conclusions

The incidence of HZ has increased >4-fold over the last 6 decades. This increase is unlikely to be due to the introduction of varicella vaccination, antiviral therapy, or change in the prevalence of immunocompromised individuals.

SUBMITTER: Kawai K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4928389 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Increasing Incidence of Herpes Zoster Over a 60-year Period From a Population-based Study.

Kawai Kosuke K Yawn Barbara P BP Wollan Peter P Harpaz Rafael R

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20160508 2

<h4>Background</h4>Temporal increases in the incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) have been reported but studies have examined short study periods, and the cause of the increase remains unknown. We examined the long-term trend of HZ.<h4>Methods</h4>A population-based cohort study was conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota, using data from 1945-1960 and 1980-2007. Medical records review of possible cases was performed to confirm incident cases of HZ, the patient's immune status, and prescribing of ant ...[more]

PMID: 27161774

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Project description:Dengue virus serotype 4 (DENV 4) has had a relatively low prevalence worldwide for decades; however, likely due to data paucity, no study has investigated the epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of DENV 4 genotype I (DENV 4-I). This study aims to understand the diversity, epidemiology and dynamics of DENV 4-I. We collected 404 full length DENV4-1 envelope (E) gene sequences from 14 countries using two sources: Yunnan Province in China (15 strains during 2013-2016) and GenBank (489 strains up to 2018-01-11). Conducting phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses, we estimated the virus spread, population dynamics, and selection pressures using different statistical analysis methods (substitution saturation, likelihood mapping, Bayesian coalescent inference, and maximum likelihood estimation). Our results show that during the last 60 years (1956-2016), DENV 4-I was present in mainland and maritime Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the southern provinces of China, parts of Brazil and Australia. The recent spread of DENV 4-I likely originated in the Philippines and later spread to Thailand. From Thailand, it spread to adjacent countries and eventually the Indian subcontinent. Apparently diverging around years 1957, 1963, 1976 and 1990, the different Clades (Clade I-V) were defined. The mean overall evolution rate of DENV 4-I was 9.74 (95% HPD: 8.68-10.82) × 10-4 nucleotide substitutions/site/year. The most recent common ancestor for DENV 4-I traces back to 1956. While the demographic history of DENV 4-I fluctuated, peaks appeared around 1982 and 2006. While purifying selection dominated the majority of E-gene evolution of DENV 4-I, positive selection characterized Clade III (Vietnam). DENV 4-I evolved in situ in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Thailand and Indian acted as the main and secondary virus distribution hubs globally and regionally. Our phylogenetic analysis highlights the need for strengthened regional cooperation on surveillance and sharing of sample sequences to improve global dengue control and cross-border transmission prevention efforts.

Dataset Information

Increasing Incidence of Herpes Zoster Over a 60-year Period From a Population-based Study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Increasing Incidence of Herpes Zoster Over a 60-year Period From a Population-based Study.

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