Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

24 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

ABSTRACT: Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

SUBMITTER: Salzmann M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4928969 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Similar Datasets

Regionally high risk increase for precipitation extreme events under global warming.

Project description:Daily precipitation extremes are projected to intensify with increasing moisture under global warming following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at about [Formula: see text]. However, this increase is not spatially homogeneous. Projections in individual models exhibit regions with substantially larger increases than expected from the CC scaling. Here, we leverage theory and observations of the form of the precipitation probability distribution to substantially improve intermodel agreement in the medium to high precipitation intensity regime, and to interpret projected changes in frequency in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Besides particular regions where models consistently display super-CC behavior, we find substantial occurrence of super-CC behavior within a given latitude band when the multi-model average does not require that the models agree point-wise on location within that band. About 13% of the globe and almost 25% of the tropics (30% for tropical land) display increases exceeding 2CC. Over 40% of tropical land points exceed 1.5CC. Risk-ratio analysis shows that even small increases above CC scaling can have disproportionately large effects in the frequency of the most extreme events. Risk due to regional enhancement of precipitation scale increase by dynamical effects must thus be included in vulnerability assessment even if locations are imprecise.

| S-EPMC10076280 | biostudies-literature

Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming.

Project description:The projected changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming remain highly uncertain across current climate models. Here, we demonstrate that the observational past warming trend can be utilized to effectively co1nstrain future projections in mean and extreme precipitation on both global and regional scales. The physical basis for such constraints relies on the relatively constant climate sensitivity in individual models and the reasonable consistency of regional hydrological sensitivity among the models, which is dominated and regulated by the increases in atmospheric moisture. For the high-emission scenario, on the global average, the projected changes in mean precipitation are lowered from 6.9 to 5.2% and those in extreme precipitation from 24.5 to 18.1%, with the inter-model variances reduced by 31.0 and 22.7%, respectively. Moreover, the constraint can be applied to regions in middle-to-high latitudes, particularly over land. These constraints result in spatially resolved corrections that deviate substantially and inhomogeneously from the global mean corrections. This study provides regionally constrained hydrological responses over the globe, with direct implications for climate adaptation in specific areas.

| S-EPMC10945848 | biostudies-literature

Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming.

Project description:The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength - and hence the rareness - of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.

| S-EPMC6831572 | biostudies-literature

Eastward shift and extension of ENSO-induced tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming.

Project description:During El Niño events, increased precipitation occurs over the equatorial central eastern Pacific, corresponding to enhanced convective heating that modulates global climate by exciting atmospheric teleconnections. These precipitation anomalies are projected to shift and extend eastward in response to global warming. We show that this predicted change is caused by narrowing of the meridional span of the underlying El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that leads to intensification of the meridional gradient of the SST anomalies, strengthening boundary-layer moisture convergence over the equatorial eastern Pacific, and enhancing local positive precipitation anomalies. The eastward shift and extension of these anomalies also intensify and extend eastward negative precipitation anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific, by strengthening equatorward advection of low mean moist enthalpy. Changes in El Niño-induced tropical precipitation anomalies suggest that, under global warming, El Niño events decay faster after their peak phase, thus shortening their duration.

| S-EPMC6949037 | biostudies-literature

Global ocean freshening, ocean mass increase and global mean sea level rise over 2005-2015.

Project description:Global mean sea level has experienced an unabated rise over the 20th century. This observed rise is due to both ocean warming and increasing continental freshwater discharge. We estimate the net ocean mass contribution to sea level by assessing the global ocean salt budget based on the unprecedented amount of in situ data over 2005-2015. We obtain the ocean mass trends of 1.30?±?1.13?mm?·?yr-1 (0-2000?m) and 1.55?±?1.20?mm?·?yr-1 (full depth). These new ocean mass trends are smaller by 0.63-0.88?mm?·?yr-1 compared to the ocean mass trend estimated through the sea level budget approach. Our result provides an independent validation of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-based ocean mass trend and, in addition, places an independent constraint on the combined Glacial Isostatic Adjustment - the Earth's delayed viscoelastic response to the redistribution of mass that accompanied the last deglaciation- and geocenter variations needed to directly infer the ocean mass trend based on GRACE data.

| S-EPMC6881399 | biostudies-literature

Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5?°C less warming in global land monsoon regions.

Project description:The Paris Agreement set a goal to keep global warming well below 2?°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5?°C. Understanding how 0.5?°C less warming reduces impacts and risks is key for climate policies. Here, we show that both areal and population exposures to dangerous extreme precipitation events (e.g., once in 10- and 20-year events) would increase consistently with warming in the populous global land monsoon regions based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multimodel projections. The 0.5?°C less warming would reduce areal and population exposures to once-in-20-year extreme precipitation events by 25% (18-41%) and 36% (22-46%), respectively. The avoided impacts are more remarkable for more intense extremes. Among the monsoon subregions, South Africa is the most impacted, followed by South Asia and East Asia. Our results improve the understanding of future vulnerability to, and risk of, climate extremes, which is paramount for mitigation and adaptation activities for the global monsoon region where nearly two-thirds of the world's population lives.

| S-EPMC6082837 | biostudies-other

Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming.

Project description:Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we find that historical warming intensified precipitation at a rate of 0.68 ± 0.51% K-1, which is slightly higher than the multi-model mean calculation for the historical climate (0.38 ± 1.18% K-1). The reduction in ocean surface albedo associated with melting of sea ice is a positive contributor to the precipitation temperature sensitivity. On the other hand, the observed increase in ocean heat storage weakens the historical precipitation. In this surface energy balance framework, the incident shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the ocean heat storage exert a dominant control on the precipitation temperature sensitivity, explaining 91% of the inter-model spread and the spread across climate scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report.

| S-EPMC8035209 | biostudies-literature

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

Project description:Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

| S-EPMC4531318 | biostudies-other

Precipitation increase counteracts warming effects on plant and soil C:N:P stoichiometry in an alpine meadow.

Project description:Temperature and precipitation are expected to increase in the forthcoming decades in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with uncertain effects of their interaction on plant and soil carbon:nitrogen:phosphorus (C:N:P) stoichiometry in alpine ecosystems. A two-year field experiment was conducted to examine the effects of warming, precipitation increase, and their interaction on soil and plant C:N:P stoichiometry at functional groups and community level in an alpine meadow. Warming increased aboveground biomass of legumes and N:P ratios of grasses and community, but did not affect soil C:N:P stoichiometry. The piecewise structural equation model (SEM) indicated that the positive effect of warming on community N:P ratio was mainly resulted from its positive influence on the aboveground biomass of functional groups. Precipitation increase reduced C:N ratios of soil, grasses, and community, indicating the alleviation in soil N-limitation and the reduction in N use efficiency of plant. SEM also demonstrated the decisive role of grasses C:N:P stoichiometry on the response of community C:N:P stoichiometry to precipitation increase. The interaction of warming and precipitation increase did not alter plant community and soil, N:P and C:P ratios, which was resulting from their antagonistic effects. The stable soil and plant community C:N:P stoichiometry raised important implications that the effect of warming was offset by precipitation increase. Our study highlights the importance of considering the interaction between warming and precipitation increase when predicting the impacts of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in alpine meadow ecosystems.

| S-EPMC9666903 | biostudies-literature

Global climate shift in 1970s causes a significant worldwide increase in precipitation extremes.

Project description:The shift in climate regimes around 1970s caused an overall enhancement of precipitation extremes across the globe with a specific spatial distribution pattern. We used gridded observational-reanalysis precipitation dataset and two important extreme precipitation measures, namely Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation (AMDP) and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). AMDP is reported to increase for almost two-third of the global land area. The variability of AMDP is found to increase more than its mean that eventually results in increased PMP almost worldwide, less near equator and maximum around mid-latitudes. Continent-wise, such increase in AMDP and PMP is true for all continents except some parts of Africa. The zone-wise analysis (dividing the globe into nine precipitation zones) reveals that zones of 'moderate precipitation' and 'moderate seasonality' exhibit the maximum increases in PMP. Recent increased in pole-ward heat and moisture transport as a result of Arctic Amplification may be associated with such spatial redistribution of precipitation extremes in the northern hemisphere.

| S-EPMC8172922 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data