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Predictive modeling of risk factors and complications of cataract surgery.

ABSTRACT: Cataract surgery is generally safe; however, severe complications exist. Preexisting conditions are known to predispose patients to intraoperative and postoperative complications. This study quantifies the relationship between aggregated preoperative risk factors and cataract surgery complications, and builds a model predicting outcomes on an individual level, given a constellation of patient characteristics.This study utilized a retrospective cohort of patients age 40 years or older who received cataract surgery. Risk factors, complications, and demographic information were extracted from the Electronic Health Record based on International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition codes, Current Procedural Terminology codes, drug prescription information, and text data mining. We used a bootstrapped least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model to identify highly associated variables. We built random forest classifiers for each complication to create predictive models.Our data corroborated existing literature, including the association of intraoperative complications, complex cataract surgery, black race, and/or prior eye surgery with increased risk of any postoperative complications. We also found other, less well-described risk factors, including diabetes mellitus, young age (<60 years), and hyperopia, as risk factors for complex cataract surgery and intraoperative and postoperative complications. Our predictive models outperformed existing published models.The aggregated risk factors and complications described here can guide new avenues of research and provide specific, personalized risk assessment for a patient considering cataract surgery. Furthermore, the predictive capacity of our models can enable risk stratification of patients, which has utility as a teaching tool as well as informing quality/value-based reimbursements.

SUBMITTER: Gaskin GL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4930873 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive modeling of risk factors and complications of cataract surgery.

Gaskin Gregory L GL Pershing Suzann S Cole Tyler S TS Shah Nigam H NH

European journal of ophthalmology 20151217 4

<h4>Purpose</h4>Cataract surgery is generally safe; however, severe complications exist. Preexisting conditions are known to predispose patients to intraoperative and postoperative complications. This study quantifies the relationship between aggregated preoperative risk factors and cataract surgery complications, and builds a model predicting outcomes on an individual level, given a constellation of patient characteristics.<h4>Methods</h4>This study utilized a retrospective cohort of patients a ...[more]

PMID: 26692059

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Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to identify the incidence of and risk factors for postoperative glaucoma-related adverse events at various time points after congenital cataract surgery.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study enrolled 259 eyes from 174 patients (surgical age ≤ 7 years) who underwent congenital cataract surgery. All surgical procedures were conducted at the Eye Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between May 2011 and March 2019. Patients were classified into group 1 [primary intraocular lens (IOL) implantation, N = 111 eyes], group 2 (secondary IOL implantation, N = 85 eyes), and group 3 (no IOL implantation, N = 63 eyes). We recorded demographic factors and incidence and risk factors for glaucoma-related adverse events.ResultsGlaucoma-related adverse events occurred in 21 (8.1%) eyes, whereas 27 (10.4%) eyes developed steroid-induced ocular hypertension. The percentage of glaucoma-related adverse events was 0%, 1.2%, 1.2%, 1.6%, 4.0%, and 8.9% at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years and 4 years after surgery, respectively. Sixteen (18.8%), five (7.9%), and zero eyes developed glaucoma-related adverse events in groups 2, 3, and 1, respectively. Family history of congenital cataract [hazard ratio (HR), 50.463; 95% confidence interval (CI), 7.051-361.139; P < 0.001], preoperative central corneal thickness (CCT) [HR, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.009-1.034; P = 0.001], preoperative horizontal corneal diameter (HCD) [HR, 3.922; 95% CI, 1.558-9.804; P = 0.004], and preoperative lens thickness (LT) [HR, 3.745; 95% CI, 1.344-10.417; P = 0.012] were identified as predictors of postoperative glaucoma-related adverse events.ConclusionsFamily history of congenital cataract, thicker preoperative CCT, smaller preoperative HCD, and thinner preoperative LT are the main risk factors of postoperative glaucoma-related adverse events. Regular monitoring of children after cataract surgery with these risk factors may help ophthalmologists detect susceptible individuals and provide timely interventions in the clinic.

Project description:BackgroundDemographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual's rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD.MethodsExacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation.ResultsPrior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use.ConclusionThese models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878).

Project description:BackgroundReduction mammoplasty can be performed in several different techniques. Understanding the complication profile and risk factors in different reduction methods can help in choosing a technique, which serves the patient best. The authors present their experience of three different reduction techniques [superomedial pedicle (SMP), superior pedicle (SP) and inferior pedicle (IP)] with an emphasis on predictors of complications.MethodsA retrospective review of a prospectively maintained database of breast reductions between 2014 and 2020 was performed. Patient's demographics [age, body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, smoking, nipple to sternal notch distance (N-SN)], operative details (pedicle, tissue resected, drains, operating surgeon) and complications according to Clavien-Dindo classification were assessed. Study variables were compared against overall complication rates for the three techniques.ResultsIn total, 760 patients underwent reduction mammoplasty, including 578 (76%) bilateral and 182 (24%) unilateral operations. Of patients, 477 (63%) were operated with SMP, 201 (26%) with IP and 82 (11%) with SP. An average weight of resected tissue per breast was 460 g. Overall complication rate was 38%. The rate was higher in IP group (50%) compared to SMP (36%) and SP (22%) groups (P<0.001). Complications were mainly minor and related to delayed wound healing. The rate for major complications was 4%. Multivariable analysis showed that complications were associated independently with IP [odds ratio (OR) 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33-2.69], age <50 years (OR 1.87, 95% CI: 1.32-2.65), bilateral operation (OR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.00-2.76) and resected tissue weight ≥650 g per breast (OR 2.02, 95% CI: 1.36-2.99). Each factor contributed 1 point in the creation of a risk-scoring system. The overall complication rate was increased as the presence of statistically significant risk factors (IP, age <50, bilateral operation and/or resected tissue ≥650 g per breast) increased (31%, 38%, 59% and 90% for number of 1, 2, 3 and 4 risk factors respectively, P<0.001).ConclusionsThe rate of complication can be predicted by a risk-scoring system. In increasing variety of patients undergoing reduction mammoplasty, careful consideration of the best operation technique is important to prevent complications and costs.

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Predictive modeling of risk factors and complications of cataract surgery.

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Predictive modeling of risk factors and complications of cataract surgery.

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