Dataset Information

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

ABSTRACT: Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.

SUBMITTER: Patino J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4932530 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

Patiño Jairo J Mateo Rubén G RG Zanatta Florian F Marquet Adrien A Aranda Silvia C SC Borges Paulo A V PA Dirkse Gerard G Gabriel Rosalina R Gonzalez-Mancebo Juana M JM Guisan Antoine A Muñoz Jesús J Sim-Sim Manuela M Vanderpoorten Alain A

Scientific reports 20160705

Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make ...[more]

PMID: 27377592

Similar Datasets

Project description:Species richness on oceanic islands has been related to a series of ecological factors including island size and isolation (i.e. the Equilibrium Model of Island Biogeography, EMIB), habitat diversity, climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and more recently island ontogeny (i.e. the General Dynamic Model of oceanic island biogeography, GDM). Here we evaluate the relationship of these factors with the diversity of bryophytes in the Macaronesian region (Azores, Madeira, Canary Islands and Cape Verde). The predictive power of EMIB, habitat diversity, climate and the GDM on total bryophyte richness, as well as moss and liverwort richness (the two dominant bryophyte groups), was evaluated through ordinary least squares regressions. After choosing the best subset of variables using inference statistics, we used partial regression analyses to identify the independent and shared effects of each model. The variables included within each model were similar for mosses and liverworts, with orographic mist layer being one of the most important predictors of richness. Models combining climate with either the GDM or habitat diversity explained most of richness variation (up to 91%). There was a high portion of shared variance between all pairwise combinations of factors in mosses, while in liverworts around half of the variability in species richness was accounted for exclusively by climate. Our results suggest that the effects of climate and habitat are strong and prevalent in this region, while geographical factors have limited influence on Macaronesian bryophyte diversity. Although climate is of great importance for liverwort richness, in mosses its effect is similar to or, at least, indiscernible from the effect of habitat diversity and, strikingly, the effect of island ontogeny. These results indicate that for highly vagile taxa on oceanic islands, the dispersal process may be less important for successful colonization than the availability of suitable ecological conditions during the establishment phase.

Project description:The Macaronesian Scrophularia lowei is hypothesized to have arisen from the widespread S. arguta on the basis of several phylogenetic studies of the genus, but sampling has been limited. Although these two annual species are morphologically distinct, the origin of S. lowei is unclear because genetic studies focused on this Macaronesian species are lacking. We studied 5 S. lowei and 25 S. arguta populations to determine the relationship of both species and to infer the geographical origin of S. lowei. The timing of S. lowei divergence and differentiation was inferred by dating analysis of the ITS region. A phylogenetic analysis of two nuclear (ITS and ETS) and two chloroplast (psbJ-petA and psbA-trnH) DNA regions was performed to study the relationship between the two species, and genetic differentiation was analysed by AMOVA. Haplotype network construction and Bayesian phylogeographic analysis were conducted using chloroplast DNA regions and a spatial clustering analysis was carried out on a combined dataset of all studied regions. Our results indicate that both species constitute a well-supported clade that diverged in the Miocene and differentiated in the Late Miocene-Pleistocene. Although S. lowei constitutes a well-supported clade according to nDNA, cpDNA revealed a close relationship between S. lowei and western Canarian S. arguta, a finding supported by the spatial clustering analysis. Both species have strong population structure, with most genetic variability explained by inter-population differences. Our study therefore supports a recent peripatric speciation of S. lowei-a taxon that differs morphologically and genetically at the nDNA level from its closest relative, S. arguta, but not according to cpDNA, from the closest Macaronesian populations of that species. In addition, a recent dispersal of S. arguta to Madeira from Canary Islands or Selvagens Islands and a rapid morphological differentiation after the colonization to generate S. lowei is the most likely hypothesis to explain the origin of the last taxon.

Project description:The definition of biogeographic regions provides a fundamental framework for a range of basic and applied questions in biogeography, evolutionary biology, systematics and conservation. Previous research suggested that environmental forcing results in highly congruent regionalization patterns across taxa, but that the size and number of regions depends on the dispersal ability of the taxa considered. We produced a biogeographic regionalization of European bryophytes and hypothesized that (1) regions defined for bryophytes would differ from those defined for other taxa due to the highly specific eco-physiology of the group and (2) their high dispersal ability would result in the resolution of few, large regions. Species distributions were recorded using 10,000 km2 MGRS pixels. Because of the lack of data across large portions of the area, species distribution models employing macroclimatic variables as predictors were used to determine the potential composition of empty pixels. K-means clustering analyses of the pixels based on their potential species composition were employed to define biogeographic regions. The optimal number of regions was determined by v-fold cross-validation and Moran's I statistic. The spatial congruence of the regions identified from their potential bryophyte assemblages with large-scale vegetation patterns is at odds with our primary hypothesis. This reinforces the notion that post-glacial migration patterns might have been much more similar in bryophytes and vascular plants than previously thought. The substantially lower optimal number of clusters and the absence of nested patterns within the main biogeographic regions, as compared to identical analyses in vascular plants, support our second hypothesis. The modelling approach implemented here is, however, based on many assumptions that are discussed but can only be tested when additional data on species distributions become available, highlighting the substantial importance of developing integrated mapping projects for all taxa in key biogeographically areas of Europe, and the Mediterranean peninsulas in particular.

Project description:India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.

Dataset Information

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

Publications

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets