Dataset Information

Predicting virological decay in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Model trajectories of viral load measurements from time of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), and use the model to predict whether patients will achieve suppressed viral load (?200?copies/ml) within 6-months of starting cART.

Design

Prospective cohort study including HIV-positive adults (UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study).

Methods

Eligible patients were antiretroviral naive and started cART after 1997. Random effects models were used to estimate viral load trends. Patients were randomly selected to form a validation dataset with those remaining used to fit the model. We evaluated predictions of suppression using indices of diagnostic test performance.

Results

Of 9562 eligible patients 6435 were used to fit the model and 3127 for validation. Mean log10 viral load trajectories declined rapidly during the first 2 weeks post-cART, moderately between 2 weeks and 3 months, and more slowly thereafter. Higher pretreatment viral load predicted steeper declines, whereas older age, white ethnicity, and boosted protease inhibitor/non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors based cART-regimen predicted a steeper decline from 3 months onwards. Specificity of predictions and the diagnostic odds ratio substantially improved when predictions were based on viral load measurements up to the 4-month visit compared with the 2 or 3-month visits. Diagnostic performance improved when suppression was defined by two consecutive suppressed viral loads compared with one.

Conclusions

Viral load measurements can be used to predict if a patient will be suppressed by 6-month post-cART. Graphical presentations of this information could help clinicians decide the optimum time to switch treatment regimen during the first months of cART.

SUBMITTER: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Writing Committee

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4933580 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting virological decay in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy.

AIDS (London, England) 20160701 11

<h4>Objective</h4>Model trajectories of viral load measurements from time of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), and use the model to predict whether patients will achieve suppressed viral load (≤200 copies/ml) within 6-months of starting cART.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study including HIV-positive adults (UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study).<h4>Methods</h4>Eligible patients were antiretroviral naive and started cART after 1997. Random effects models were used to estimate v ...[more]

PMID: 27124894

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Project description:BackgroundThe mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) seems to influence in a large number of diseases, including HIV infection. Moreover, there is a substantial inter-individual variability in the CD4+ recovery in HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Our study aimed to analyze the association between mtDNA haplogroups and CD4+ recovery in HIV-infected patients on cART.MethodsThis is a retrospective study of 324 naïve cART patients with CD4+ <?200 cells/mm3, who were followed-up during 24 months after initiating cART. All patients had undetectable HIV viral load during the follow-up. Besides, we included 141 healthy controls. MtDNA genotyping was performed by using Sequenom's MassARRAY platform. The primary outcome variable was the slope of CD4+ recovery. Patients were stratified into two groups by the median slope value of CD4+ (9.65 CD4+ cells/mm3/month). Logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate the odds of CD4+ recovery according to mtDNA haplogroups.ResultsOur study included European HIV-infected patients within the N macro-cluster. The baseline values of CD4+ T-cells were similar between groups of patients stratified by the P50th of the slope of CD4+ T-cells recovery. Patients in the low CD4+ T-cells recovery group were older (p?=?0.001), but this variable was included in the multivariate models. When we analyzed the frequencies of mtDNA haplogroups, no significant differences between HIV-infected individuals and healthy controls were found. We did not find any significant association between mtDNA haplogroups and the slope of CD4+ T-cells recovery by linear regression analysis. However, Patients carrying haplogroup H had a higher odds of having a better CD4+ recovery (>?9.65 CD4+ cells/mm3/month) than patients without haplogroup H (p?=?0.032). The adjusted logistic regression showed that patients carrying haplogroup H had a higher likelihood of achieving a CD4+ recovery?>?9.65 CD4+ cells/mm3/month [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)?=?1.75 (95% CI?=?1.04; 2.95); p?=?0.035].ConclusionsEuropean mitochondrial haplogroup H was associated with the improved CD4+ recovery in HIV-infected patients starting cART with CD4+ <?200 cells/mm3.

Project description:Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART.Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population. Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22-1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86-1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located.HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Dataset Information

Predicting virological decay in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy.

Objective

Design

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting virological decay in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy.

Similar Datasets

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