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Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

ABSTRACT: Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations.

SUBMITTER: Hameed SO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4936028 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

Hameed Sarah O SO White J Wilson JW Miller Seth H SH Nickols Kerry J KJ Morgan Steven G SG

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20160601 1833

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling ...[more]

PMID: 27358362

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Project description:Background:The mangrove crab Ucides cordatus is considered a key species for the ecological balance of mangrove forests and a major source of employment and income for traditional crab collectors in Brazil. Several studies evidenced weak genetic variation among populations due to an efficient larval transport. However, gene flow patterns of the species is poorly understood, with no information about migration rates. The influence of the two main Brazilian currents in larval dispersion is also not clear. In order to provide baseline information for conservation, planning and management of this important fishery resource, the present study aimed to estimate and evaluate spatial distribution of genetic diversity, migration rates and gene flow directivity among populations of U. cordatus in Brazil. Methods:Nine microsatellites were used to resolve population structure of 319 crabs collected from six sites located along the Brazilian coast. The degree of geographical differentiation included estimates of genetic diversity, population structure and gene flow models, with spatial analysis of shared alleles (SAShA), isolation by distance tests, AMOVA, discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and Bayesian clustering. We estimated the amount of ongoing gene flow between clusters using the coalescent-based method implemented in Migrate-N. Results:Loci were highly polymorphic (average of 12.4 alleles per locus) evidencing high genetic variability. There was significant differentiation among localities, despite of the low value of FST (= 0.019; P < 0.001). FST and Jost's D indexes were also estimated in pairwise comparisons and showed significant differences between most of the surveyed site pairs (P < 0.05). Structure evidenced a single genetic group among samples, however SAShA pointed to a non-panmictic condition (P = 0.011). AMOVA detected four statistical significant clusters with low level of differentiation (FCT = 0.037; P = 0.023). The gene flow model that best described the population connectivity was the island model, with ?24 crabs being exchanged among localities per generation. Discussion:The high migration rates found among localities seem to be the main force acting to sustain the distribution of the genetic diversity of U. cordatus. Despite the high gene flow and the weak population structure among samples, the significant genetic differences found suggest that gene flow alone does not bypass the effects of genetic drift, natural selection and/or human exploitation. These findings are vital for the establishment of a database to be used in the development of conservation programs.

Project description:To successfully perform their long-distance migrations, migratory birds require sites along their migratory routes to rest and refuel. Monitoring the use of so-called stopover and staging sites provides insights into (a) the timing of migration and (b) the importance of a site for migratory bird populations. A recently developed Bayesian superpopulation model that integrates mark-recapture data and ring density data enabled the estimation of stopover timing, duration, and population size. Yet, this model did not account for heterogeneity in encounter (p) and staying (?) probabilities.Here we extended the integrated superpopulation model by implementing finite mixtures to account for heterogeneity in p and ?. We used simulations and real data (from 2009-2016) on red knots Calidris canutus, mostly of the subspecies piersmai, staging in Bohai Bay, China, during spring migration to (a) show the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in encounter and staying probabilities to get unbiased estimates of stopover timing, duration, and numbers of migratory birds at staging sites and (b) get accurate stopover parameter estimates for a migratory bird species at a key staging site that is threatened by habitat destruction.Our simulations confirmed that heterogeneity in p affected stopover parameter estimates more than heterogeneity in ?, especially when most birds had low p. Bias was particularly severe when most birds had both low ? and p. Bias was largest for population size, intermediate for stopover duration and negligible for stopover timing.A total of 50,000-100,000 red knots were estimated to annually stop for 5-9 days in Bohai Bay between 10 and 30 May. This shows the key importance of this staging site for this declining species. There were no clear changes in stopover parameters over time, although stopover population size was substantially lower in 2016 than in preceding years.Our study shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in both encounter and staying probabilities for accurately estimating stopover duration and population size and provides an appropriate modeling framework.

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Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

Publications

Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

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